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pwhite73 over on advfn seems to be talking the most sense about this but just looking at that website gives me a headache. Those who sold shares they couldn't supply on settlement day should imo be forced to refund the buyers prior to being prosecuted for fraud. Forcing them to cover their shorts on the open market would cause chaos - more likely the whole thing will be swept under the carpet until the shares are issued next month.
Partly like I said, because a positive trial period with a slight delay would be broadly good news imo, partly because it's in the RNS announcing the fundraise - there's no mention of the launch slipping into Q1 but the domestic trials are slated to begin later than announced in the RNS of June 8th. I'm assuming that if I noticed it so did everyone who took part in the fundraise.
I'm hoping there's another delay already baked in to the share price. The last one from Q3 to Q4 didn't do any harm. An RNS along the lines of ... 'The domestic trials have gone well and market launch will now be in Q1 2023 accompanied my a major marketing campaign' would be well received imo.
You'd have to think that sales of commercial machines to hotels etc have been encouraging or they wouldn't have greenlit the development of two models for the domestic market. Revenue-wise though XSG seems more focused on European partnerships and legislation which is a way off yet.
Should maybe add that I took a punt on Friday and bought a few. Been watching since June's positive announcements and last week's uptick in volume and share price finally decided it. With market cap and cash almost the same, and news of IFB's product launch expected this quarter, maybe it's time for someone to reap the benefits of all that investment. At least with a year's cash we can be sure the next RNS won't be another fundraise.
It's actually much worse than that. Looking back through the RNS announcements I thought this, from March '22 must have been a mistake:
"Mr Nichols has agreed to cancel the options granted to him over a total of 18,901 ordinary shares of 15p each ("Ordinary Shares") in 2015, 2017 and 2018 which have an exercise price of £210 or £225 per share."
But no, back in November 2020 there was a 1 for 100 capital reduction because the shares had lost almost 100% of their value. Since then, they have almost repeated the same feat, which is something I've never seen before. No wonder the old chief exec wanted to leave. That and the £120m+ of accumulated losses. He must have gone into hiding.
Probably just roger65 topping up again
The executive summary only enhances my view that Italy will try for an annulment as a matter of routine, however unlikely it is to succeed. The market appears to agree, having added only about 30% of the award to the share price. I'm perfectly comfortable with how things are going and looking forward to the development of Sealion, but an early capitulation by the Italians would be a bonus in this case imo.
Hi Mogger, Boboil,
Thanks for the replies. Just to clarify, Italy has lost three cases under the Energy Charter Treaty, and one of them was under ICSID rules. ARB/16/5 is no.97 on the ECT list and has gone to the annulment committee. The others are under SCC rules and are tied up in the courts.
https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/16/5
Hi Boboil
I prefer to judge Italy's chances of paying by its track record. There are only three cases where an award has been made against them (now four) and in no instance has Italy willingly paid up. All three cases are bogged down in national courts, annulment proceedings and/or enforcement actions, despite the awards being rendered years ago. It's just the way they operate.
https://www.energychartertreaty.org/cases/list-of-cases/
I don't think it's the likelihood of being paid that the market is discounting but the timescale involved. Looking at the list of cases on the ICSID website, it seems that most of them end up in front of the annulment committee. While only one award has been overturned by them, it took three years to reach that conclusion. Still, the award will improve the balance sheet while we wait for it become cash in the bank.
https://www.energychartertreaty.org/cases/list-of-cases/
Don't see the point of exercising warrants now if you're an LTH. We know those shares will be available at 9p for the next 16 months, but we don't know how long the market price will be under 15p. Buying in the 10 - 15p range must be the best use of cash in the near term. RKH was a bargain last week at 8p, but it's an absolute gift now at 14.
RKH's compensation case against the Italian government, under the ECT and ICSID is due to be resolved next week (maybe) but began in 2017, so it's a long road to start down with no guarantee of winning. For me, today was when I finally broke even and for some investments that feels like a win, so I'm off. Best of luck if you need to hang on a while longer.
Just tried a dummy buy of 1m shares - 0.52p is the price. Must be a big sell order going through.
Plenty of blame to go round, but for me this is the key point and the reason the share price has plummeted today
"According to the EMA its average processing time fora Certificate of Environmental (CEC) Application requiring an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is 180 working days while that of the Applicant is 220 working days."
44 weeks from 23/12/21 is early October '22. And that's just the average time taken. Heaven forbid it should get complicated.
Sold out after nearly three years for a microscopic profit. 100% up on recent lows and imminent results likely to be accompanied by a cash call imo. Hope to be back in at a lower price, but who knows? Safety first for me after recent carnage.
Tip of the hat to Investor Bill for his post of 8/6. Spot on.
"Checked just now and there are 8.1m on offer before you have to negotiate. Unless they're bought up soon we'll be back in the low .60s"
The purpose of the Capital Reorganisation as a whole is to: (i) enable the Company to issue shares in future at an issue price which significantly exceeds their nominal value; and (ii) create a reserve by cancelling the deferred share capital of the Company as well as cancelling the Share Premium Account
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Where does it say this is needed to issue shares under the incentive plan?