Member Info for LennyMac

I note that non- EU immigration is subject to a points- based system that applies a series of criteria like the Australian system, and yet non- EU migration as a proportion of overall net migration is higher than EU migration. The government, for all its many, many, faults has consistently taken the line that net migration must fall and yet the part of immigration that you'd expect it to be able to control, if the Brexit argument is to be believed, seems just as intractable as the EU immigration that Leave suggests would be controllable upon Brexit.

I think that the FTSE will take a bit of a beating over the next couple of weeks, particularly if the polls start to show a greater likelihood of Brexit, and more so if the result is to leave. Good if you have cash handy; I am sure there will be a few bargains.

No way. 300p by October! 55p to go.

Having an independent currency doesn't quite allow the UK to 'tailor our economic policy to our specific needs' but it does allow for some capacity to alter its own circumstances. In fact, the value of a currency (its exchange rate) affects a huge number of other variables. If the exchange rate for the pound is low, the UK exports more cheaply and its goods are more competitive in foreign markets. If the value of pound is high then it can purchase a lot more from overseas (effectively, imports become cheaper). However, a low pound means that debt servicing is more expensive and obviously, a high- value pound makes it easier to pay off foreign debt. As the Pound is a floating currency, its exchange rate is determined largely by supply and demand. The demand for pounds in particular is affected by a number of factors and governments can manipulate it to some extent to create favourable conditions. For example, if the UK raises interest rates, the value of Sterling rises and conversely, lowered interest rates prompt a fall in the Pound's value. Thus, if a government wanted to increase exports, it could lower interest rates; if it wanted to pay off more debt, it could raise interest rates. The problem with the Euro is that it is a single currency for 20- odd economies that have different prevailing conditions and requirements. For example, the current value of the Euro benefits Germany by maintaining an acceptable level of competitiveness for German exports as well as an acceptable rate at which German debts can be serviced. For Greece, however, the rate of the Euro is too high for Greek goods to be competitive and not high enough to have a positive impact on servicing Greek debt. By not taking up the Euro, UK has retained quite a deal of capacity for independent action with regards to its exchange rates, whereas Greece has no capacity at all to affect the Euro's exchange rate to its own benefit.

Membership of the EU and having a sovereign currency (Sterling) engender two different sets of economic conditions that Pa and Mailman touch on. Membership of the EU has meant better terms of trade with Europe including lower tariffs, access to subsidies and grant and greater negotiating power in trade deals with countries outside the EU. In general, these conditions enhance the UK's capacity to trade and indirectly, foster employment and economic activity in key industries (car making and finance for example). The argument here is that Britain accrues a range of benefits from EU membership that provide a secure basis for solid economic growth that it otherwise wouldn't have as a small, independent state that had to navigate individual trade deals and access to markets. For example, in a trade deal with China, the EU carries much more economic clout than Britain would if it had to negotiate directly because of the size and sophistication of the European market. Britain alone would be the junior partner in this trade deal and the argument holds that the deal itself would be worse than a deal with the EU with Britain as a member. Financial markets view UK EU membership favourably and, coupled with the UK's strong financial governance laws, this means that Britain can borrow money at rates that are relatively cheap; the effect here is that Britain can run trade and current account deficits for long periods without markets pushing up the costs of its borrowing.

Er... 72p.

No way. 300p by the end of Oct! Only 62p to go.

This is the guy who argues that although there are independent peaks and troughs in economic activity across all markets over time, that this activity tends to concentrate the flows of capital into specific markets and this concentration peaks every 8 years or so. So, for example, flows of cash in and out of investment alternatives over time concentrate where confidence is the highest; we might be seeing it today in the UK in the property market: cash has lots of investment uses but we might all agree that the best returns at the moment are in property, and so cash flows to property above everything else, creating a peak where returns are large and outperform every other investment alternative. To actually gain from Armstrong's theories, you need to pick the market around which the biggest flow of capital is coalescing and get in there. Can I presume that you are asking because 2016 is showing as a peak year?

This is the guy who argues that although there are independent peaks and troughs in economic activity across all markets over time, that this activity tends to concentrate the flows of capital into specific markets and this concentration peaks every 8 years or so. So, for example, flows of cash in and out of investment alternatives over time concentrate where confidence is the highest; we might be seeing it today in the UK in the property market: cash has lots of investment uses but we might all agree that the best returns at the moment are in property, and so cash flows to property above everything else, creating a peak where returns are large and outperform every other investment alternative. To actually gain from Armstrong's theories, you need to pick the market around which the biggest flow of capital is coalescing and get in there. Can I presume that you are asking because 2016 is showing as a peak year?

I felt for you this morning. I bought just after results were released when I thought 950p was a great price so I am quite a bit down already myself. However, I've watched this company for about 5 years and I believe that its long run price is currently nearer to 1050p. When ISAT rebounds, it will do so rapidly. We might have to wait until 'earnings season' passes and possibly the market fallout from the 23 June EU referendum before this reestablishes itself at a more appropriate price.

I'll have a go. The sp will dawdle upwards gradually till the end of June then everything will take a hammering around the 23rd June and for a while after that, but by Aug, the oil price will be rising and the FTSE will rise rapidly with it. 300p by the end of Oct 2016.

I agree with Arsenal: this current price (in fact anything under 900p) is a bargain. I got in this morning and expect a bit of reflation to around 1050p

I think that 275p is conservative. Between 2013 and late 2015 this sp traded between a range of 320p and 370p and as far as I can see, litigation and ongoing legal wrangles notwithstanding, the bank's underlying position and fundamentals have not changed; indeed, they have improved. RBS is grossly undervalued at the moment, not because of any particular failings or external factors, but simply because the FTSE as a whole has fallen 600 points in the last year. RBS, due to its curious status as a state- owned bank, falls much further than most companies when the general trajectory of the market is downwards. When the FTSE begins to tick upwards, as we have seen since Feb, there is a gradual reflation of the SP because more cash returns to the market; investors regain the courage to put their money into shares rather than other vehicles like gold or bonds. We must understand that financial markets everywhere have been skittish about prospects for growth for a couple of years and this makes investment capital highly volatile; at the first sign of an issue (say, lower Chinese growth figures or a suddenly declining oil price), cash is rapidly withdrawn from (relatively) risky markets, like shares, and pumped into options with much less risk (like gold or UK govt bonds). Once the issue passes (say, the oil price stabilises), cash starts to return to these higher risk markets. RBS feels the effects of these movements both ways: cash is rapidly withdrawn from RBS because it is a high- risk investment in a (relatively) high risk market, and cash is gradually returned to RBS was cash generally and gradually returns to the FTSE. I'd imagine that as the FTSE returns to, say, 6700- 6800 pts, we'll also have seen a return to the trading range of 320p- 370p.

I am very sad that you've decided to give up the posts. It's been a pleasure and hopefully you'll pop back in from time to time to discuss why RBS is still at 230p in 2025! With the greatest of respect to everyone else on here, the board will be a lesser place without your comment. All the best.

I think your spreadsheet idea is a great one and I am looking forward to going through the permutations over the weekend. Just so I understand correctly though, you are suggesting that instead of using the £12k to average down, I should actually do nothing with RBS but put the money I would have used into something that will provide divs and the possibility of trading profits. It certainly makes sense and I'm surprised it never occurred to me. I think I am just so tired of being disappointed by RBS that I wanted shot of it at all costs (pardon the pun).

I guess 'sentiment' covers a lot of things. You could probably say that it is the sum of every investor's view on the factors that influence their decision to buy or sell or wait. I suspect that sentiment about RBS is driven significantly by views on broader issues like the state of the economy because macro issues like exchange rates, interest rates and economic growth have a direct effect on the bank's own performance. However, sentiment about RBS is also weighted by its irregular ( state- owned) status and by its very conspicuous legal entanglements.

Diverging views are always welcome of course, but would you mind adding some substance to your argument if your language is going to be that emphatic? Stagecoach said that RBS was rock solid ' in terms of safety and underlying profitability', and that may well be the case. In fact, Stagecoach's point was that despite the examples he used to illustrate his argument, it is sentiment across the sector that is holding the price down rather than the bank's fundamentals. You've made the point in an earlier post that further falls are a possibility, and you might be right, but isn't it also possible that the falls are due precisely to the market sentiment that Stagecoach has pointed out.

Thank you for the advice. I don't actually have that many relative to their cost. I will give the spreadsheet a go. Cheers both.

I agree with your point about good money after bad. In fact, I would be averaging down to get out of RBS. My plan is to throw a huge amount of cash at it to reduce my average from 525p to almost its current price then hope a short rise will give me break- even. I am not really thinking about any potential upside for RBS although I have learned a lot about its trading ranges from the last few years.

I think we have to keep things in perspective. Around this time last year, as the sp hit £4 or thereabouts, no-one questioned the inexorable rise in sp and this board could see nothing but light at the end of the tunnel. We have to accept that the RBS sp will fluctuate, and to a degree that is uncommon for FTSE companies. RBS offers great potential for trading on the rises and falls but the crucial thing there is entry point. Northy, I presume your entry point is quite a long way above 210p? My average is 525p and frankly, I can't see any other way of extricating myself except for pumping in more cash to average down, but without a dividend, there is serious opportunity cost in doing so. Unfortunately, given that we are in a period of significant political uncertainty on lots of fronts and anaemic domestic and international economic growth, banking shares will suffer. We can probably assume the current downturn is cyclical and so, inevitably, economic circumstances will improve over the long run. I made the point on here a while ago, in response to a post asking about RBS as an investment possibility, that it simply depends on your horizon, and with RBS, that horizon is a very long way away. Keep the faith comrades!