Member Info for LennyMac

Tilting! Welcome back. I wondered when we'd get your wonderfully miserable take on things again. The key part of your post is 'it appears to me they don't care or they don't know anything about running a business. Shares will fall', which of course should be read as 'I don't actually have any idea about why RBS has done what they have (although I'd expect that there are some sober commercial considerations involved), but my default setting is conspiracy theorist/ doom- monger, so I'll willingly (and lazily) infer apathy and ignorance as the basis for the decision'. Cheer up though: at least it is Friday!

Actually, I've always found Bruce's posts to be measured, informed and polite.

That would seem to be shutting the gate after the horse has bolted.

I'm glad you are still about; pluralism is key to good debate.

Well, National Grab Your Pants Day has been and gone, although I had a lot of fun taking part. Now be honest, you are the alter ego of Tilting at Windmills aren't you?

National Grab Your Pants Day on 22 November?

About two months ago I made the blithe prediction that we'd be back up to 800p soon enough. I am sorry for that. I still have faith in this company, and its historical rapid sp climbs have made me a fair bit of cash in the past, but this fall has been a bit discouraging.

Wrong website perhaps?

Is this bbq broken or are we all still composing a response?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/02/bank-of-england-no-longer-bottle-interest-rate-rise

D'oh!

Stick for me. The data that underpin economic activity is not good enough to justify a rate rise. The inflation data are clearly the result of the drop in sterling rather than an overheating economy, and so I'd expect the BOE to overlook the headline inflation figure. If rates are raised, it is simply because the BOE is trying to counter the current perception that its policy of �forward guidance� has been largely unhelpful and the damage to its reputation that has occurred as a result of flagging the possibility of a rate rise for the last year or so, but then failing to do so.

What does '290+ is the level to look out for.' actually mean? My average is about 525p, so 290p doesn't have any real value for me, except to say that it is a better position than the current 280p. The rest of your post is a bit 'stream of consciousness'; can you clarify your point please?

Yours is an interesting question. The media narrative around interest rates implies a rate increase in the near term, which must have bolstered the sp somewhat. However, a BOE decision to do so would require economic data that is a little more emphatic that what has been released recently (private debt is up; retail sales down; uncertainty over Brexit putting downward pressure on sterling, leading to inflation; wages growth is depressed and there are large numbers of people in relatively low- paid jobs). If the BOE decides to hold interest rates steady in November, the sp gains throughout October might be reversed. If I were a betting man, I'd say interest rates will remain steady into 2018. However, the fundamentals for RBS are improving; it is certainly in a better place now than in 2013-14,and at that time the sp oscillated over a range of 320- 370. In that respect, market psychology is perhaps as least as important as a rate increase for the prospects for sustaining/ improving the current sp.

So you'll be increasing your stake?

Who's talking about it?

I am in at 749p. This sp will fluctuate a bit and rises and falls are usually dramatic. Hang in there; when it climbs, it climbs fast. We'll get 800p out of this soon enough.

I guess it depends on how you define 'match'. If the threat from the discounters is 'supposed', how do you account for the continuous and concerted decline in the SP since 2014?

This share has none of the makings of doubling in the next few years. None. Why don't you give us the great benefit of your wisdom and experience and explain how the sp might rise so dramatically and why?

Fred Goodwin was a disaster. Him and his cabal of sheisters and crooks should have been strung up for the morass into which their hubris and poor judgement placed the whole economy, not just the bank. It has been a decade since RBS shares were worth anything and to be honest, it might have been a better idea to have simply junked RBS and sold the lot off. It is a bit rich (pardon the pun) to say that RBS has 'been forced into throwing away billions selling assets far too cheap' when the bank was (and has been ever since) in desperate hock to the government in 2008. I'd say that having to flog off assets is the very least that could be done, at whatever price, in return for not breaking the bank up.