JABH24 Oct 2018 14:12
Thanks for your thoughtful post.
You might be right about Brexit concern being a factor depressing the sp but I note the correlation between the RBS sp and the FTSE generally since the end of September. I suspect that the range of geopolitical factors that has pushed the index downwards since then has had the most significant effect on the RBS sp, rather than anything inherently specific to RBS itself. Additionally, you can see similar trajectories in sector peers LLOY and BARC and more broadly, FTSE companies like TSCO, LGEN or VOD all exhibit a similar pattern from on or around 24 Sep.
I discount your point about challengers although I agree about the increasing significance of small fintec operators. UK banking customers are for the most part, resistant to switching, probably because the products offered by banks differ only marginally, and I don’t rate the threat as highly as you have.
It is my view that once markets across the globe regain their confidence we will see a commensurate rise in the RBS sp. With regard to Brexit, I think we’ll see the opposite of what appears to be intuitive; come 29 Mar, if the UK successfully leaves the EU with or without a deal, much of the uncertainty about the economy will be removed. The uncertainty factor (so far as the stock market is concerned) is not related to the direct impacts on the economy per se, but about businesses not knowing what their investment decisions ought to be, and after 29 Mar, things will be much clearer and the FTSE will experience a positive jolt as the market decides on the companies and sectors in which it will invest its massive stockpiles of cash. The irony of my view is that an extension of the article 50 period or any delay in leaving will increase the uncertainty and depress the FTSE.