Member Info for Lenin

Mr J Max... you are not properly understanding it is the recent period that is important in relation for Tullow..... because wether for the right or wrong reasons The Iran/USA conflict is a game changer....

Many traders are assuming the World will go back to the way it was before once this concludes ( and whatever that means) because the situation is reaching a tipping point....It is like an approaching Tsunami but the short term Oil Traders are still having a party at the beach because the Tsunami will hit in a few days rather than today..

Mr J Bond ...You say the company is going nowhere....But there has been a 150 % plus share price increase from around 6 months ago .....This is the important period because it comes during the Hormuz Strait crisis which basically means the World is NOT going back to the way it is before....

I take it because you have a Crystal Ball on such events and can say how these events will turn out you have become a millionaire.????

The API USA Oil Inventories report another weekly big Drawdown minus 6 .7 million barrels and this figure does not include the additional SPR Drawdowns...,Severn constant weeks of Drawdowns and before the peak driving season...The road to hitting the brick wall is getting faster and still the price off Oil is not reflecting this ....One day soon we will wake up and the Price of Oil will sky rocket in one go ....

Mr Barnerty 2000 ...I understand where you are coming from when you say people would not really want a 150 Dollar Oil Spike ....Off course should this happen there will be people who would suffer..... HOWEVER...the way to look at it , if it does happen....and there is no reason why not with Oil Inventories running down fast ....It is better to be on the right side off a major global event such as this if this does play out ....I mean we may have Spouses etc ...we have to think about here ...

Yes Mr Barnety2000 ... Trump has been feeding a narrative since April that an Agreement is just around the corner or about to be signed....He has now come out with a Deal could be reached within a week...No Oil Futures Trader wants to be on the wrong side off the trade because off this ..

HOWEVER...This narrative could come back and give Trump a.. Very Nasty Bite In The Rear ...

Because the result means rather than the Oil Price going higher and Crude Oil demand reducing... the Oil Crude Stockpiles which were quite healthy at the start off this conflict are being drawn at a historically fast rate with the result that the Oil Price will go from Flat to Vertical.....

The Futures Oil Traders kept on making bets over the last three months that the Strait Of Hormuz will be opened by now which have kept Oil Prices suppressed but this has turned out to be delusional of course....It is rather like the First World War which although from a different era and different situation was widely thought at the start by most that it would be over by Christmas with only a very few warning off a long sustained war ...The event was world changing off course in which the world never went back to the old order ....And this is how it is with the Iran / USA War in which very soon a brick wall maybe hit and Oil Prices shall go spiraling upwards....The American Administration never considered the consequences off if events did not play out their way once they were involved and the same for these Oil Futures Traders who still think things will go back too exactly as it was before once this is over ...

That's easy to awnser .... Tullow is classed as a High Beta Share ....and this especially applies in Tullow s relation to the price off Oil ...So when the price of Oil drops Tullow moves down faster than say BP as an example and when the price off Oil goes up the share price will rise faster....The Beta movement is decided by a number off factors such as the amount of money needed to move the share price in either direction...the size of the company and it's financial situation etc.

At the moment the share price stands at a little higher than say when the Oil Price was at this level earlier on during the Iran/ USA War ...One big advantage off higher Beta Companies is that if you can stand the Volatility and are prepared to accept the higher risk it is possible to walk away with much more money if the company does well ..

This is a shorter YouTube Clip of Geologist Art Berman Interview talking near term Oil Prices

https://youtu.be/YSSTy5A5CT4?si=sACMl6hzXpXM1j6u

Mr Happy Shopper...Your post does not make any sense ....You state that Tullow is only here to pay its debts ....then you say once that gets to an acceptable level someone will swoop in and cut the head off ......That sounds very confused

If the debt is at what you call an acceptable level (which I assume you mean to be much lower ) then the company will be more valuable and is the current raision d 'etre or aim off Tullow...

It is normally a company that cannot pay its debts that will get its head cut off

Aljizeera are saying no official word from the Irainians other than Iran and Oman will control the Strait of Hormuz

Exxon and Chevron CEOs warn that we are weeks away from Oil hitting 150 Dollars a Barrel as Crude Oil Inventories are going down much faster than what had been expected....A little more patience and Tullow Investors will be rewarded...

Well reading your answer as why you want the Price of Oil to Crash back down to £60 Dollars a Barrel....I would say most people on here would conclude either ...1 ..You have completely lost your Marbles if you are a Tullow Shareholder... or

2 .....You are shorting the Stock in order to try make a load money ..

Mr J Max you state earlier let's see a Peace Deal and the Oil Price back down to 60 Dollars....Why do you want the price back down to 60 Dollars?????

So the big news that a Memorandum had been reached with Iran on a Peace Deal and it just needs Trump to sign off on it has been widely reported and caused Oil Prices to continue to fall

But not so widely reported is that the Iranian State backed News Agency reported that this so called Peace Deal has neither been finalized or confirmed....SHOCK ....Is this yet more jaw boning from the American Administration to manipulate the price of Oil downwards ??? .Which Iranians are they dealing with ??? ..Nobody knows ....In the deal the Iranians are supposed to completely open up the Strait but the Iranian Republican Guard are saying the Strait remains under their control , possibly shared with Oman ......Its a dangerous game for the Americans to play because with rapidly declining Inventories a point will be reached where no amount off verbal manipulation can prevent the price of Oil spiralling upwards ..

If the situation is not bad enough for the Oil Tankers stuck in the Strait the Americans have decided to make it much worse..

The Iranians will charge the Oil Tankers a Toll Fee if they wish to pass through the Strait but now the Americans have come out with a Statement that if the Tankers pay the fee the Tankers will be Sanctioned which means that the tankers are now stuck in even a worse situation....If Oil is not 150 Dollars a barrel by late July I will be blown away with the situation becomes increasingly complicated with the passing off time..

Sad to say ...The response from the White House to the Iranian Memorandum to open the Strait may have come a bit late to prevent a red day for Tullow today ...but the White House is saying the Memorandum is a complete fabrication which will obviously go down like a lead balloon with the Iranians....so barring any sudden surprises the Oil Price should start to recover

Yes Mr J Max ..As you say ....Selected ...maybe a maximum 10 % of all the daily Tanker Traffic....None to the West ... only those that have paid the fee to the Iranians...

The World Stock markets have been excited this morning and the Oil Price has dropped by a Memorandum by Iran about a potential deal and the opening up off the Strait... BUT CAUTION

The Iranians are saying the Strait will be controlled by Iran and Oman ( in other words Tolls will be charged per Tanker) but the American Administration have previously said that is a Non Starter .... Unless there is a massive. Climbdown by Trump then I would rather say the optimism is being Over Hyped ..

At the start of the War between Iran and USA the December front month contract on Oil for this year was around 67 Dollars a Barrel based on a forecast of a surplus of 2 to 4 million Barrels a day ....At the moment Oil Supplies are down 10 Million Plus Barrels a Day .. yet despite the wrong forecast difference on Oil Supplies off up to 14 million barrels... the December contract has only moved to 80 Dollars which basically means the market is pretending the hundreds off millions off missing Barrels has not happened ....As the shortfall will continue for a long while after the Strait has opened at some point the market will hit a brick wall with the potential for the price off Oil To Spiral Upwards

For the sake of clarity I have made a big top up in Tullow earlier today ....

But interesting to read that Bearish Trade Bets in Brent Crude have gone up for 7 straight Weeks in a row from 40 Million Barrels off Oil to around 100 Million Barrels off Oil by May the 19 t h ...Over this period Bearish Traders have been expecting a quick resolution to the Hormuz Crisis but nothing is still forthcoming, meanwhile 10 Million Plus Barrels of Oil a Day go disappearing forever from World Oil Markets.....At some point the scarcity of supplies will mean they will end up with big losses....