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Takeover? Would be a pity.

Thanks guys - makes total sense - I have been curious for some time. We live and learn.

For more info on UT trades see the attached.

https://www.shiftingshares.com/what-is-an-uncrossing-trade/

The 1m, 2m. 3m I referred to is for the value not the number of shares traded.

Well that is one explanation.

I believe the actual definition of a UT trade is: “An uncrossing trade is where buyers on the bid and sellers on the ask match together in a single trade at the end of an auction period.”

So my understanding is that if a 3m UT trade of shares is reported, it means that 3m shares will have been bought collectively in the auction by those participants wanting to buy and 3m shares sold collectively by those wanting to sell at a matched (uncrossed) price in one single transaction within the random 30sec period at the end of the 5 minute auction. What I don’t understand is why the numbers of shares transacted is often so exact —- 1m, 2m, 3m etc.

Anyone who has access to the trading platform can participate in auctions, but most of us individual investors do not have, or want, access.’

‘Anything can happen !” Yes Indeed!

I think it is a mug’s game to try and time the market or predict market movements with any degree of certainty. Mr Market ( Graham’s famous parable) is a manic-depressive who, at the best of times, swings from over valuing companies to undervaluing them, and visa versa. And at the present time things are a lot more unstable than normal and Mr Market is responding accordingly with his usual idiosyncrasies. Good for traders who get it right, but not for me.

What - I think - I know is that DT is a good business that will survive and hopefully thrive in this environment, and that the business has a sound future either alone or in the hands of others. So far so good, and, as such, and to my mind, It continues to offer good long term and lucrative prospects for the owners of the business. I am quite content to continue to be one of those unless my assessment is proved wrong in the future. Now that I am fully invested at a low average price, the gyrations of the SP are a distraction from what the business is all about.

But each to their own and GLA.

Interesting that 1011 raised $600m in June and now have AUM of $1000m. First invested in DT in 2016 as part of a$65m fund raising. This is what DT is reported as saying at the time (ref 1011 site).

‘Our partnership with 1011 Ventures has been critical to our success and expansion of the Enterprise Immune System worldwide. With unparalleled industry experience, the 1011 team goes beyond the typical investor role by providing engaging advice to accelerate the growth of cyber security companies.’

….and their main focus of interest is in cyber security.

It is not clear to me when AB sold her shares as , as an ordinary shareholder, a TR1 would only be needed when a threshold is crossed - in this case 8%- and this was crossed on 29/7.

It is quite possible that she has been selling in dribs and drabs for some time. So she could have sold down 0.99% from 8.99% over several weeks/months and only triggering a TR1 when her shareholding crossed 8% to the reported 7.99%. She could now continue to sell 0.99% and we wouldn’t know it until the 7% threshold is crossed.

Just a thought.

Berylfu - yes there were a number of buys for 2x5m and 2x2m I think (pounds) but then there were later entries for 2x-5m and 2x-2m. I have never seen minus (-) entries before so can only assume the first positive entries were a mistake and corrected with the negative entries.

No question the EBITDA, EBIT (operating profit) and Free Cash Flow will be positive. The only question in my mind is whether E (earnings or Net Profit - the bottom line profitability figure) will be positive after paying any interest and tax. Market Screener, for what it is worth pencils in a $8.9m loss for the net profit (E) FY22.

We will also need to look at the figures very carefully on 8/9 because they have been capitalising some of their commission expenses that flatter the earnings today at the expense of net profit tomorrow. Financial numbers are not always what they seem at first glance IMH Experience.

Whatever, DT’s financial situation is robust and it goes from strength to strength and all will be revealed soon.

If you read the RNS on 3 March ( 1H FY22 results) they clearly state that costs relative to sales would increase in 2H FY22 for all the reasons given. I read this as meaning it would be unlikely that they would remain profitable for FY22 - costs up relative to sales means to me that net income ( = Earnings or net Profit) would therefore be down.

But Free Cash Flow will remain positive - and didn’t our “girls” do well.

Not being a trader or a speculator, guessing the future SP is of little interest to me.

What is of interest is how DT will do as a business in a fiercely competitive market place in an increasingly uncertain world.

Any insights on the key questions I keep asking myself? What is it about DTs offer and approach that will give it long term competitive advantage - that famous “moat”? Is the technology sufficiently different from the many competitors to create a niche? Are they getting the balance between marketing and R&D expenditure right? Is their reputation management sufficiently robust to see off the complications from the Autonomy affair. Is management up to the task?

And this is why interest rate rises are important for tech stocks as reasoned in a Time’s article today. The good news is that DT already - seemingly - is generating a substantial free cash flow

‘Interest rate increases are bad for tech companies priced for high growth because an increased cost of capital eats into the value of future cashflows. For that reason loss-making companies have been particularly badly hit. “For those companies what the rate is, is really important because that informs the discount rate for future cashflows and if the cashflows are really far into the future then it’s that much more meaningful,‘“

They are referring to discounted cash flow analysis. If, for instance, a discount rate is 10%, £1000 generated in 10 years time is deemed to have only a value today (present value) of £385. That is 1000 divided by 1.1 ten times. So if the discount rate goes up because interest rates go up the present value falls. And if brokers use DCFA in part to determine their target prices, they will inevitably have to lower their forecasts - as most of them have.

Bladerunneruk -well done, more than luck It seems to me - good judgement. The way you managed the buying and selling appearsto me to put you - indeed - firmly in the category of “investor” according to the concept of B Graham. Graham dedicated a whole chapter to the distinction between investor and speculator in “The Intelligent Investor”. A sample of what he said:

‘The most realistic distinction between the investor and the speculator is found in their attitude toward stock-market movements. The speculator’s primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. The investor’s primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices.. Market movements are important to him in a practical sense, because they alternately create low price levels at which he would be wise to buy and high price levels at which he certainly should refrain from buying and probably would be wise to sell“

Bobocaca - that is the question I have been asking myself. No idea.

ABCAM , one of my long-term tech investment successes, is planning to quit its LSE AIM listing and list 100% in the US (for reasons discussed many times on this bb). I wonder if DT has it in their thoughts to follow that lead.

I think the lowest threshold for notification of shareholding is 4 or 5%. but I may be wrong. But anyway ownership below the lowest threshold level does not have to be reported by the company. So you would not find the earlier holdings through RNSs if below the minimum reportable level. Above this level every change that crosses thresholds in 1% increments have to be reported = 6,7, 8.9,10, 11 etc. In other words the holding of AB who holds 8.99% would not have to be reported unless her shareholding crosses 8% or 9%..

I suppose Market Screener has access to EDGAR, the SEC's Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval System which lists all major shareholders and I believe this is public record.. I have found MS reliable in listing the top 10 shareholders, but is about a month or so behind the actual situation.

I believe the figures but, I guess, everyone must make up their own mind. If I recall correctly I posted many months ago the L&G was buying into the company.

I think the RNS is confusing. RNSs usually are quite explicit giving a before and after figure. This doesn’t, and I guess you could read it either way.

But here are the top 10 % holdings according the Market Screener on 14May and (22 June). Clearly indicating L&Gs prior holdings.

Summit 14.6(14.6)
KKR 9.22 (9.22)
AB 8.99 (8.99)
DEBT 7.84 (5.97)
ML 4.40. (4.40)
Brighton Park Capital 4.35 (4.35) ( a hands on US investor - fairly new to DT)
MTL 3.30 (??)
L&G 3.09 (3.94)
Vitruvian 2.96 (2.98)
Deep Defence (Vitruvian) ??(4.55)
Nicole Eagan ?? (2.02)

?? Denotes not in top ten but may have a holding.

Don’t get too excited ~ L&G has held 3.94% of the shares for some months now (I keep screenshots of the top ten holdings now and again). Certainly they have bought a percent or so more to cross the threshold, but it wasn’t 5% in one go. Still good news - I wonder who was selling?

I think one needs to see all this volatility of DT’s SP against the backdrop of a great deal of turmoil and persistent uncertainty in the market - the NASDAQ has dropped 30% this year with more than 32 daily falls of more than 2%. DT is doing well, but the SP will not be immune to this wider turmoil and uncertainty.

Buttonwood in the Economist paints a rather bleak picture of the Marco-economic situation concluding “That our indicators are flashing-red at the same time suggests an enduring step-up in uncertainty from which it may be hard to climb down.”

I think DT has all the ingredients necessary to do well in this crazy world, but I suggest we will still experience a lot of turbulence affecting the SP for the foreseeable future. I hope I misinterpreted the bleakness of the wider situation, but I will keep my seat belt fastened all the same.

GLA