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To me this is the very epitome of bad practice - adjusting awards after the event. My green/amber flag is becoming stained with a tinge of red.

This explains why for both market maker transactions - -“O” trades and automated transactions - “A” or “UT” trades. For “O” trades if a buy is priced is on the sell side of the midline of the bid-offer spread it is recorded as a sell even if a buy. Crazy but there it is, But it means you will have bought at a good price.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/81/idiots-guide-to-the-london-stock-exchanges-setsmm-0379.html

Those who continue to harp on about c’s excessive posting are is as guilty as he is of overloading this BB with inconsequential blah, blah ……. There is a mechanism to tune him out should you so wish - so use it - constantly picking on him adds no value IMO.

Charles - scuttlebutt? At least Philip Fischer thought it an important aspect of keeping informed about investments. Those little clues………

Historical data for2020 and 2021 in $m, % share and finally growth 2020 to 2021 (market screener)

United States and Canada 64.50 40.8% 81.29 38.9% +26.03%
Europe 30.14 19.1% 46.03 22% +52.73%
Rest of World 33.08 20.9% 44.32 21.2% +33.97%
United Kingdom 30.40 19.2% 37.49 17.9% +23.32%

Biggest share US and Canada, growing fastest in Europe. Figures for 2022 will be interesting to see how this progresses.

“We believe that the quality of the Darktrace business is watery-thin, driven by an aggressive, promotional, sales focus, which we doubt will stand the test of time.”

What Shadowfall stated is not a lie, it is their view but one I disagree with. Who is right time will tell, but investing to me is taking a view on the potential of a business and, if positive, backing that your cash. Shorting does two things - it signals the possibility of trouble ahead so it was worth taking account of and reevaluating your own assumptions, and if you think you are still right, it allows for yet another buying opportunity. If wrong sell and be thankful someone has indicated serious shortfalls in your thinking/analysis/information.

It is all about doing you own research. Anybody who blindly follows the views of others ………

Good analysis/ well reasoned thoughts on the future role of the BOD, but in my view there is a big difference between the views and accountabilities of the execs and non-execs on a BOD. I would expect that many of the non-execs would be replaced ( e.g. from Summit, KKR esp..) . Quite a different situation for the execs on the BOD and DTs management team. They will be offered something difficult to turn down IMHO.

Yes, and in the ideal world the existing BOD would exercise their roles, responsibilities and accountabilities to the letter, but, as we all know, it is not an ideal world.

Good question NewKOTB on incentive to BOD.

THe BOD are our representatives and the should only recommend a takeover if the takeover is believed to be in our interests. So the question is in my mind what incentives are being offered to us, as owners, as we will have the last say. That will be related to the price offered in relation to the BOD’s view of future prospects and the associated uncertainty.

I believe the BOD, following the Cadbury fiasco, is also honour bound the take into account other aspects such as the interests of employees and other stakeholders in arriving at their recommendation to the shareholders, but it is our choice in the end. It is one of our few “rights”so we should all exercise them

Micro Focus bought out Autonomy from HP - or merged with the Hp Autonomy business I think - so ML connection. I sold out a year or so ago after not seeing sufficient progress.

Thanks NewKOTB for keeping us informed.

An interesting cross section of iis. The DEBT is run by a trust to handle legacy issues and for the benefit and present and past employee ( ref IPO Prospectus). The trustees can apparently vote independent of company management for up to 5% of the total voting rights , so I wonder how they will vote if there is a takeover offer - but I suppose this would be part of the negotiation.

The Times today.

“One of the last remaining undisputed technology stars on the London stock market could soon disappear into full foreign ownership after Schneider Electric, of France, said it was considering making a full bid for Aveva.

“Shares in Aveva surged by 589p, or 26.9 per cent, to close at £27.81 after Schneider, which already holds a 59 per cent stake, said it was considering making an offer for the Aveva shares it does not already own.”

Clued - yes Mr Market determines the SP and w hence what a share is worth on a day to day basis.. What the business is intrinsically worth though, is quite a different thing, and independent of the SP. A private business has a worth but has no SP. Hopefully, though, long term the value determined by the sp will match the intrinsic value of the business. I think it was Buffett who said “ price is what you pay, but value or otherwise is what you get” for a long term shareholder.

If Summit, with a seat on the BOD, is selling - what does this tell us?

Jzcahat I don’t think you an ever have a definitive figure of what DT is intrinsically worth. All you can do - IMO-is paint yourself a picture of what the value could be based upon a range of assumptions on growth, costs etc. and then base your decision on which is the most credible to you. Everyone will have a different view on how that picture looks and the width of that view will vary widely amongst PIs and pros alike. I am comfortable with my view that the intrinsic worth is in the 800-1000p range, but that is my view, and my view alone, and one on which I informed my investment decision. It may be right, but equally it may be wrong, but I would rather be informed by my own analysis than depend on what MrMarket thinks.

Jzcahat -to answer your question, I would need to pay 15bucks to look at what assumptions underlaid the DCF calculation as the outcome of dCF calculations is terribly sensitive to the assumptions made. I get the impression they are selling their methodology, rather than their predictions, and their app. is designed to allow you to enter your own data. . I would ignore because a small outfit would never be capable of properly analysing all companies. Their evaluation of SHEL is way out.

Please note, it is not a combination of two methods, but two separate methods.Their relative valuation is different and comes up with and figure higher than the dcf calculation but still a lot lower that the comparison with the likes of CRWD suggest.

But it reminds me of Buffett’s “Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” analogy. Brilliant - the question is how many birds in the bush can DT find?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgo12pdxbME

The reasoning given for the Nearmap takeover will - IMO - be similar for DT were it to go ahead. The crux of the argument is certainty today versus the uncertainty of tomorrow, even if the outlook for tomorrow is very good. I prefer to bet on my view of the outlook of tomorrow. That is why I invest in some high growth shares - pitting my view of future possibilities against the idiosyncratic view of Mr Market.

“The board has carefully considered the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed scheme and believes the offer price of $2.10 cash per share provides shareholders with certainty of value today for the potential of our business,”

“……… and while, in the long-term, there remains potential future growth trajectory, this has to be balanced with the business and market risks that Nearmap shareholders face remaining as a publicly listed independent company.”

PG - Spot on - economic principle no.1. What they the buyer is willing to pay, and what we the shareholders are willing to accept. And que sera, sera.

Valuation of growth shares to me is like beauty - in the eye of the beholder so we will all have different views as to value of growth shares that depends on how we imagine the future. There is no right or wrong answer - IMO - it is more a question of how probable.

About a year ago I made my own assessment of value, based upon my growth and cost assumptions, which gave an intrinsic worth in the 800-1000p range. Are the assumptions holding up compared with the latest updates? Yes, so far so good but things are still unfolding. Would I pay that for them? No because there is still too much uncertainty and I would want to apply Graham’s “margin of safety” discounting those figures by 50% or more to help protect the downside risk. . But would I want to sell for a price below what I thought it intrinsically worth? As a short term holder, yes I would, but if I were the sole owner I wouldn’t, so nor would I as a very small long term co-owner.

Thanks, NewKOBT. My only experience has been with contractural takeovers and assumed this would be thecase here. I have in the past received a little extra on occasion but mostly by default rather than design. No takeover company likes to minority shareholders so would offer inducements, but, I guess, they will get their 75% or 90%. Probably worth my while looking into the differences for interest if nothing else.

Have a good weekend.

It is interesting to see how fellow BB contributors are responding to the potential takeover with diverse views, situations and aspirations. I suppose I am in a fortunate situation averaging in the mid 300s, and do not need the proceeds from the sale, so can relax either way.. But if taken over, it will cause me a lot of work researching new unique companies to invest in, and there are not too many attractive alternative possibilities around in the UK market.

I probably will not accept any takeover price less that 1000p which is the top of the range which I estimate it is worth medium term. It is likely to be taken over for much less, IMO, so I am hoping, at least, that more than 10% of the SHs are like minded enough so that the takeover company will have to offer slightly more to squeeze us out in order to get the required 90% acceptances needed to obtain total ownership.. Wishful thinking I know, but it would good to see them not having it all their own way.

Most will see it differently.. GLA