Member Info for lemonade311

I've compiled a bunch of transcripts of youtubers early access plays from 6~ early youtubers and ran them through Claude and the result was a very positive from 5 of them, 1 of them (rudi) was critical.

Seems like an 8/10 or a 'positive' on steam when it releases is my prediction.

Frontier is clearly holding stuff back like Intamin & others for DLC's however all the foundations look good.

I check in this board every now and then cause the delusion is entertaining that's why.

lol, this is why no good investor pays attention to sell-side research, a load of dog ****.

> we reiterate our target price of 1,300p based on 3.5x fy25e ev/sales

you can't be serious, this is the dumbest thing i've ever read.

a 3.5x ev/sales is above the medium for even software companies in the uk that have gross margin % above 65%, let alone non-software companies that are.

a 3.5x ev/sales makes absolutely no sense when your gross margins are a max of 25% long term and currently negative.

go read a book on finance valuation or something, it's embarrassing reading the posts here shill for this every day.

> 5.105 Vaping products duty – A flat-rate excise duty on all vaping liquid will be

introduced from 1 October 2026 at £2.20 per 10ml vaping liquid, accompanied

by an equivalent one-off increase of £2.20 per 100 cigarettes / 50g of tobacco in

tobacco duty to maintain the financial incentive to switch from tobacco to vaping

That's a massive increase and should hurt demand no?

> Adding £2.20 to each 10ml would represent a significant price increase - potentially 40-70% on current prices

It's not about flavours been banned, it's about disposables being much higher profit margins than reusables. This has been discussed in detail previously on this chatboard.

My big issue with this stock is the risk of a large % drop if it turns out margins will go down a lot after disposables banned.

AIM stocks are far more volatile and especially in this market where lots of stocks on AIM have had huge 1 day drops on worse-than-expected outcomes or results

Planet co. 2 has been rising in top-sellers and we are 22nd now, it's not even out yet.

This game is going to beat analyst expectations: https://store.steampowered.com/search/?filter=topsellers

Https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/oct/18/rachel-reeves-considers-raising-tax-on-vapes-in-autumn-budget

Https://www.ft.com/content/e7615b6f-8ba9-4f34-b8cf-d002094c620a

Not good. will push up costs probably if passed

> That's a mean EV/Sales ratio of 6.8x.

This is flawed because you aren't taking into account the competitors gross margins or that those acquisitions likely happened in the bubble of podcasting.

A 10x of £20~ with gross margins of 20% is just ridiculous. BOOM might be undervalued but if they are it's no where close to £20. It's more like £5~ and that's only if they can hit 25-30% gross margins with operating leverage.

I'm not a holder as I was predicting that these results would be bad due to sales of wallpaper lagging house transactions by up to a year but this is worse than I expected. Multiple red flags:

> o Decrease in net cash includes a £2.3m one-off payment to facilitate an insurance buy-in transaction for one of the Group's pension schemes as announced on 19 June 2024 along with an inventory increase and one-off capital expenditure items

Net cash is down materially. This pension payment is insanely stupid of management btw, they did this payment AFTER interest rates & inflation rose up which caused their pensions liabs to shoot up and in turn the cost to insure against this will have risen dramatically, a good CEO/CFO would have insured against this when insurance premiums were low, before the inflation rise.

£9.5m in cash is just bad. Looks like they might need to raise debt/equity.

Managament has cash tied up in inventory so you can expect an inventory impairment soon. The dividend is stupid imo, they shouldn't be paying a dividend at all right now.

> Delivery of the Board's expectations is reliant on a projected improvement in trading during the remainder of the financial year, which includes our important pre-Christmas selling period

So this is essentially a profit warning for AIM companies now. They won't hit their expectations and the next trading update they will probably say this and the stock will drop more.

I would like to remind all shareholders here to read the past 2 annual reports and look at CEO compensation. Lisa Montague got paid bonuses EVEN though she missed the targets by a mile, just because of 'macro' issues. All this while shareholders lose money. Is that acceptable to you?

Stock should be lower than it is.

£10 for this company is ludicrous lol.

At that price they would need gross margins of >40% which I seriously doubt.

The market wants to see gross margin. Until that happens I expect Audioboom to not trade at high multiples. Acast only went up when their gross margin % went up as that's where all the FCF comes from.

I'm very curious how AI podcasts will affect Audioboom/Acast though.

> and improved the Company's gross margin

This is good but I will want to know by how much as this is what matters more than revenue growth.

Again how much of this revenue growth is due to US elections that can't re-occur though?

> audiences grow by more than 34% during the early part of presidential campaigning, and this growth has quickly translated to revenue opportunity.

And showcase becoming a larger % of revenue (on track for >30% in 2024) is good as it's the highest margin, however I presume there's a limit to how much back catalogue ad-revenue you can sell.

Still a wait-and-see to see where their gross margins are and if they can get to >25% later or not.

Ah, thanks for clarifying that, my bad. That's more reasonable then.

I wouldn't say it's irrelevant @win4call. It gives you an idea of what management wants and is targeting.

Wizz air, creightons had similar lofty revenue/market cap targets, creightons wanted to be a £1bn company, Wizz air has vardy's compensation tied to £64 a share.

When a companies management say they want to hit x target by x date it can be worrying because they might do acquisitions or poor ROIC just to reach that target.

Anyway, I do think REVB looks to be doing the correct thing with it's core brands, too hard to tell though right now. And inventory, cash, lawsuit are still major issues that it doesn't make sense to invest right now imo

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jx2imp33glc

No idea what this means for Podcast providers like Audioboom/Acast, maybe it's a good thing as the cost of providing AI generated podcasts goes down then their margins will go up as they can take more revenue share?

Or even do their own content at a fraction of the cost in the future?

No idea but it's interesting.

@mariscal, thanks for that, yeah that site looks a bit new/amateurish though. I'm sceptical of their accuracy and how they are tracking it.

Do you have a subscription with them? Cause all I see is:

> Copies sold: 20k

Which again, I think is probably just off.

£1bn in net sales is a 33% CAGR for the next 10 years.

It's quite a ludicrous target, that's the type of growth you get from a tech company with the ability to easily scale.

Companies can't really continue this type of growth for 10 years usually unless they are very special.

Does RevolutionBeauty seem that special? No. Anyway it's a wait-and-see approach still, need to see their core brands continue to grow.

> Weighted in second half

This always worries me as well cause a lot of times that weighting never comes and the stock drops..

Probably not realistic no.

Honestly whenever I see these types of management targets it's a yellow flag. They seem to rarely hit them...

I don't hold REVB but what are you talking about? The outlook was pointing to this:

> In FY25, we expect revenues to decline year-on-year in the first half at a slightly higher rate than in the second half of FY24, reflecting our more focused product portfolio and the impact of stock clearance in the first half of FY24. With a reinvigorated innovation pipeline and opportunities to expand our offering and distribution network, we expect a return to revenue growth in the second half of the year. Benefitting from the Group's ongoing cost savings programme, Adjusted EBITDA for FY25 is expected to be at least in-line with FY24 with a significant weighting to the second half.

The inventory provision is bad though but to be expected.