Member Info for Legalwolf

Fair play to PJ. Shows his conviction was very real and not simply because he was CEO. Is he still classed as an insider even though he has left?

PD1 - shoot or bust is a good way to put it. Just be grateful there's still some rounds to be fired.

7 year low this?

Some huge trades have gone in since yesterday (buys and sells). I would think that we must have taken out a lot of the supply (selling) at this resistance level. Absorbed most of it yesterday (judging by the volume) and now we are back at 7 on the bid/ask. I think this bodes well for the remainder of this week and in the run up to NHE's farmout news. But of course, we can't properly re-rate here until we know were are definitely drilling.

We just need to hope that Noble have been noble with their comms :-)

AG - to be honest, that was more a retort at a certain poster, who does nothing but ramp and make unsubstantiated claims himself, yet accuses me of de-ramping, simply because I put the counter narrative in. For example, he will selectively post positive articles about the country, and yet ignore all others. Again, because it suits his agenda to do so. So I thought i'd respond in kind and post some articles myself, to see how easily it is done.

My overall position re ORCP hasn't changed, although my confidence levels about whether the trigger point/inflection point will be reached are not high - as you can tell. Yes, that means I might not invest here, but I am sure we all have shares on our watchlist where we never ultimately pull the trigger on them. That's why its called a watchlist.

At the moment, the market sentiment towards ORCP is not great, and until that changes, no ones makes money. So I'm waiting to see if Naheed provides the newsflow to change that sentiment, and if she does, then I will invest on that news and put the doubts to one side. But not before. That's been my position throughout.

I think we just need to press the reset button, rather than arguing endlessly about the rights and wrongs so far, or wishing and willing things to be different. This is the AIM casino, and doesn't care when we win, or when we lose. The game goes on. We rolled the dice on Victoria and it has been an unmitigated disaster. Nothing less, nothing more.

So just dust yourselves off and decide whether you want in or out for Queensland. In the meantime, the sellers, shorters, de-rampers, naysayers and bears have the upper hand. Accept that and be cool with it, and acknowledge that they made the better call on this occasion. Don't waste your time and mental energy arguing the toss.

It's swings and roundabouts and once the share price bottoms, as it will at some stage because the failure at Victoria is now in the open, there will hopefully come a point where the market sees value in the share price again in the run up to Queensland exploration and results. That's just how it goes.

This might not help LTH who are massively underwater and won't be able to trade their way out of it from these levels. But unfortunately, that is the high risk they took on. Can't be worse than Colin's situation? All imo and DYOR

https://fortune.com/2023/05/18/china-belt-road-loans-****stan-sri-lanka-africa-collapse-economic-instability/

https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/04/****stans-existential-economic-crisis#:~:text=and%20chinese%20debt.-,multilateral%20debt,the%20imf%20(%247.6%20billion).

the jurisdiction is in a crisis and besieged with all sorts of major problems, from corruption, political and civil unrest, rampant inflation, debt defaults, etc. this is hardly the settling for major multibillion pound projects being kickstarted anytime soon.

so i would say, don't listen to the rampers, who are ignoring the reality and living in hope.

Blah, blah, blah.

Mental - totally agree with you that there's not much we can do about it as investors. Yes, we can choose to take the high ground and not to invest in ECR, but then you might as well stop investing in AIM stocks, because many of them are lifestyle operations. And at the end of the day, who cares as long as they make you money as well? The naysayers don't care really either.

I also agree with you that it's a case of re-appraising this for Queensland now, and deciding whether you see upside from these levels based on the work they will be doing in Lolworth and Hurricane. I will see where the share price settles as part of my own assessment and revisit what is known about these projects and reasons for AH's excitement about them. All imo and DYOR

The thing is, I am not sure AH is wedded to ECR as its CEO, in such a way that he is looking to pick a fight with the BOD by recommending salary cuts. If he was so energised by his role, would he be so effusive in his praise for AJ. He praised him again yesterday, saying how sprightly he was or words to that effect. If AH really cared that much, he would have gotten rid. In fact, I think CB would have gotten rid of him by now, because at one point, CB brought in another geologist and promoted her to chief geologist. Can't remember whatever happened to her in the end.

Maybe when they have to raise cash, they might decide to cut wages, but to be honest, it looks to me like they have cut operational activity instead to limit cash burn. AS has no interest in asking about why salaries aren't being cut to limit cash burn either. All imo

IG - you're assuming that the CEO would be against going private and look to resist that. I'm wondering the opposite and wonder whether that's why Prime Energy have won the bid. The CEO will know more than most what that will mean for future direction of travel for 'his' company....? All imo

I read this just the other day, and it was based on the author's research of stock performance:

"During environments when a market as a whole is being revalued from overvalued to lower-valued, somewhere between 75% and 99% of all individual equities decline. The tidal wave of this whole market environment generally will far overwhelm any positive individual equity criterion in this situation."

Basically, that in a bear market, the fact that individual companies might have good fundamentals (whether potential or actual) will be FAR outweighed by the general bear market direction. So generally a time to avoid most of them from an investment perspective. I would imagine this applies even more so to speculative AIM stocks, who get punished the most in this environment.

The same author goes on to say that the best time to invest is when the overall market has switched back to a bull market. But that's just one 'expert's' view and there are always exceptions and different approaches/ways to make money. GLA

AG - I think ECR and ORCP are at different stages of their respective projects, but the net effect on their shareholders is the same. Both companies have switched their focus from previous flagship projects, towards new ones. ECR needs to find gold at its new projects, but can't afford to take 2 or 3 drilling programs to do that, as it doesn't have the cash to waste anymore. So (for a shareholder's perspective) it needs to hit something FIRST time round. Otherwise, down it will go again, and massive dilution at lower levels. So right now, its a trading opportunity more than an investment I would say.

For ORCP, it doesn't need to find gold, but has the equally tough task of finding the capex for its new green projects, which are now its focus. It also doesn't have too much time on its hand to do so, because it too will need cash soon.

Only 10% of stocks go up in a bear market. For a lot of these AIM stocks, which don't generate their own revenues, its a period of big falls in their share prices and massive dilution. That's what we are seeing and experiencing all around us at the moment.

I don't think its about the resource/fundamentals, as much as it is about sentiment. For example, if we were in 2020, ORCP would have been a lot higher based on its current level of progress, as would ECR. That's simply because when our investments are going up, we have less reason to worry about the kind of things that get discussed on BB in bear markets, because we are in profit, and so the whole mood and outlook is different.

These totally contrasting market environments are a good learning opportunity for us all though. Whether we learn those lessons though is another matter though.

Stock is in an uptrend and has cleared a lot more of the sellers at this resistance level. Positive news next week from NHE should hopefully see us breakout again and push to the next level. GLA

Their CEO owns 30% of the shares.

ECR are in a very similar predicament, downtrending share price and depleting cash. Just about enough cash to fund the next drilling programme, but if they don't hit results next time round, which reverses the share price, then it will be painful dilution ahead at lower levels. In fact, this downward spiral of dilution is facing a LOT of the juniors. Who'd have thought a share trading above 3.5p, would today hit 0.35p. It's happening right across the board though (ORR hit 0.10p, POW 0.7p, KAV 0.9p, CGAT 0.2p, Cora 3.7p, to name but a few.

It's just a very difficult, punishing and unforgiving market right now. Even good news is not moving the needle much. A good time to find bargains or a jumbo sale that's not worth getting involved in all together?

Imagine if ECR didn't have the baggage of Victoria, and was purely a Queensland play. Would you buy it at these levels?

Well, that's sort of where we are now, and the cash position is the only thing that prevents it from being a screaming buy at these levels, as opposed to a very decent buy at these levels?

No point sugar coating it folks, this was a VERY bad day at the office. I think Victoria is dead and that is CB's legacy really. So many millions spent/wasted for gold that has proved too elusive. ECR will now move forward with AH's projects i.e. Queensland, it's just a shame that he didn't have the millions that CB did.

As for AJ - don't know why AH has confidence in him, but maybe he has no choice really? All imo

I will obviously bow to the likes of KeithOz about this topic, but it's worth looking beyond the overall COS figure and at how its been calculated. The CPR report gives the breakdown below at page 32. The figures for Source, Reservoir and Trap (first three columns) are actually very good/high at each interval. The key risk (the 40% figure, fourth column) is the presence and efficacy of a Seal, which then brings the overall COS down (final column). I haven't read and digested the full report as yet, but thought this table/breakdown was worth highlighting. All imo and DYOR

Table 2.23: Geological Chances of Success - Tai Prospect

Karoo Sandstone 70% 70% 70% 40% 14%

Lake Bed Formation 70% 70% 70% 40% 14%

Nsungwe Formation 70% 70% 70% 40% 14%

Weathered Basement 70% 50% 70% 40% 10%

What happened to the recording of the Q&A?

I think we need to just forget about Molopo. There isn't going to be a sale any time soon, nor can I see POW spending any more money on it any time soon. Need to patiently wait for something exciting to happen, or the market climate for juniors to improve. It could be a long wait for either of these, but let's hope not.