Member Info for Legalwolf

Okay, looking more closely at this, and you will see that the IPO was done at $0.20 per share, and involved between 35 to 40 million shares to be issued at that price. There were also 28 million Options exercisable at that price as well. That was in April 2022. By May 2022, the share price was at or below the IPO price, giving little to no opportunity for IPO shares and options to be flipped.

In October 2022, NHE did a placing for A$6.1 million, for 40 million shares at $0.15 per share. There were also 4million options at $0.225 per share. Since the placing, the share price has traded at or below the placing price of $0.15, giving little to no opportunity for PLACING shares to be flipped, until the rise from February 2023 to March 2023, going from $0.14 to $0.26, and then the sell off.

Therefore, the following can be said:

1) There are 40 million shares in profit at $0.15 & 40 million shares, plus 28 million Options, in profit at $0.20?

2) Not all of these holders will have wished to be LTH. Many will have been looking to flip out at first opportunity?

3) BUT there has been LITTLE TO NO opportunity for them to flip out, until the recent rise in February 2023. They have patiently had to wait months for that opportunity.

Overall, unless I have completely misunderstood the above, I would argue that it is highly likely that the sell off in March/April was these IPO and/or PLACING shares being flipped, and nothing to do with farmout? This selling pressure will have caused pressure on any remaining IPO and PLACING flippers, as the price fell back to $0.20 and then $0.15.

But happy to be corrected if I have gotten this completely wrong. And as always, all imo and DYOR.

I think we need to be very careful here in linking the selling of NHE shares to it ONLY being explained by farmout trouble:

1) Do we know if NHE have awarded any other options (warrants, CLNs, etc) at a lower strike price than these at $0.25c?

2) More generally, if you look at NHE's chart, the selling started on 30 March and stopped the (then) rise. IMO this was very much P&D action, and selling into liquidity, rather than anything to do with the farmout. In any case, the farmout picture was all very rosey at that point anyway.

3) There was then further selling throughout the ensuing trading range in April (again whilst farmout picture was rosey).

4) The selling continued into May, eventually breaking the trading range in mid May, and continuing into this last week.

5) At no stage have NHE given any hint of farmout trouble - on the contrary, they have proactively pumped an 'all is going very well and we are so excited' narrative. If it's to do with farmout, then it raises a concern about 'insider trading', because publicly, the comms have been 'all is going very well'.

6) If there is farmout trouble, would NHE and HE1 not be duty bound to RNS it, especially if some parts of the market have gotten wind of it and started selling? As well as the rules about unexplained share price volatility? I'm sure HE1 are in regular dialogue with NHE, especially in this critical run up to Rig contract.

The selling is disconcerting, no doubt, but is it necessarily linked to farmout. All imo and DYOR

Interesting to read some of the discussion here as a former LTH. If it helps in any way, we had this constant large selling here for much of 2022. That's why I said at the start of the year (and have been consistent ever since) that I would wait until this Mill End settlement, and the Prospectus, to decide whether it was worth investing here (see previous posts). So far, the way GCAT has operated since it IPOd, has been to spin out a positive story to the market BUT give that story 12 months to unfold. Last year's story was "we will expand to 24Koz by end of year, and will get non dilutive financing". What we got instead, was very little gold, hidden CLNs (i.e. dilution) and large sellers profiteering from us retail holders - all done in the background. Essentially, the company was a share trading racquet for much of 2022.

This year's story is "high grade gold zone coupled with non dilutive financing to come". Now, this is absolutely great if it happens, and time will tell, but it's not so great if the company is still saddled with so many large sellers in the background who have received cheap shares, and will therefore sell them into any rise. It's like having a non stop flipping of shares racquet again.

So overall, it is perfectly okay to be excited by GCAT's gold assets (if you believe it all), but in order to make money as an investor (as opposed to short term trades), you also need to fully understand the volume of shares that have been given to these loan providers, AND the cheap shares to be issued to them in the future, because these cheap shares will serve as heavy resistance, that needs to be cleared, before the share price can go on a sustained rise. And its mostly retail money that will be needed to clear them, and we are talking £millions worth.

Whichever way you look at it, whether fully buying into the story or not, the amount of cheap shares in the background is almost as important as the amount of gold in the ground? All imo and DYOR

GH - really? If you track back then you will see that it is YOU who has started to get personal. Your posts are laced with insinuations and accusations ("lies", "hypocrisy", "agenda" etc) so don't be surprised when I bite back. It is ME who has been exercising the patience with YOU, but you've ended up getting personal. I can excuse a bit of (stress induced?) lashing out, but everyone has a tolerance level. As for ignoring points that don't suit an agenda, pot kettle! I mean, did you step forward today and correct the poster who suggested that the cash burn was £100k over 6 months (or something ridiculous like that)? NO you did not. And as for ignoring points or posting misleading things to suit an agenda. Who was it who ignored the high volume selling and suggested this drop is all market maker manipulation? YOU!

Basically, you only seem to "pipe up" when someone makes points that don't suit your agenda and positive thesis here. So with all due respect, you're hardly some paragon of virtue and objective posting when it comes to ORCP. Your posts are almost entirely positive and one-sided and often don't make much sense to me in terms of investment strategy, but I politely and patiently endure them, and don't get worked up like you.

Anyway, I don't want to get into petty squabbling, and it's not my style and a waste of energy and time. If you don't like my posts, then best to just hit filter and enter a state of bliss. I'll continue to wish you to be best with your investment here and elsewhere and we can leave it at that.

Okay "pipe up" as much as you please. But these are hardly the actions of a relaxed LTH who sees tremendous long term value, which is what you have been making out for months. You're coming across as anything but relaxed right now. Hmmm

Come on GH - stop piping up again. My last post was saying it can't be a forward placing, because that would be at complete odds with Naheed's interview with Zak Mir. In fact, that interview would be shockingly inconsistent with any forward sold placing. Anyway, most LTH have said they are not bothered whether or not there is to be a placing, because they see the value here and will just buy more. So if there is to be a placing, it's all bliss.

But hasn't Naheed already said to Zak Mir that she couldn't fathom the market reaction to the RNS, and that the share price drop was simply down to the market reaction. How could that be reconciled with any placing having already been agreed? All imo

That's a good post Bumble and reflects a lot of my own thinking. The price itself is tempting, but the market timing is not. Probably best to avoid (most of) the sector at present. Best of luck with all of your investments and choices.

If you look at the chart, the price has fallen on VERY high (relative) volume this week. Highest volume since August 2022. Something must have happened to trigger this move down?

Mixed feelings right now. I could bring my average down to about 1.5p, but with placing overhang now at 0.85p, it's going to take something MAJOR for the price to get to that level, or close to. Problem is, I don't really see ANY potential for there to be something that MAJOR happening here. Maybe more bonanza grades from Tati in H2, alongside another move up in POG might do it?

As for Uranium, its price has nearly doubled in the last few years, but how long will it take for there to be a boom in Uranium stocks, and even then, will it only impact on 'producers', or also speculative juniors like POW? Either way, it doesn't seem like a near term event to me?

And then we have the IPOs. Well none of them have had any impact on the share price so far, so little reason for thinking they will make a difference any time soon?

Not wishing to be gloomy, and like I said, I would like to average down, but at the same time, I don't want more money stuck in another non performing stock. What specifically is making others feel hopeful about the next 6 months, for example?

I think we are still in the immediate aftermath of the recent news, with people digesting the news and forming a view as to whether or not it will be resolved and how long that might take. So its too early to judge anything. Once it goes quiet, and if it remains quiet here for a prolonged period, some holders will see this as 'opportunity cost' and not want their money stuck in a dead share. The MM will also want to take the price to where there is more volume, because they won't be making any money from dead trading. So if this is to fall, it won't be an overnight thing, but will happen over weeks and then months (if the solution for Anza takes months to sort out). Having said that, if there is any whiff of a good outcome/solution being actively progress or achieved, then it will bounce back. And a bullish POG will also help. So intriguing situation and all is not lost.

Having listened to the Q&A, I didn't get the sense that the BOD have any real clue right now about what will happen and by when with Anza, hence why they had 3 completely different options on the table, rather than pushing one particular agenda forward. And they weren't showing any appetite to take on Goliath (MMA), if it comes to that, or push or pressure MMA into moving at pace.

Therefore, whilst this will remain on my watchlist, I will wait until we get some confirmation and progress about which of the options it is to be, and then re-assess from there. In the meantime, good luck to all with whatever you decide to do.

KeithOz - could it have anything to do with the tax year in Australia ending next month?

More generally, NHE did its placing for A$6 million in October at A$0.15. Until its recent rise from March 2023 onwards, there wasn't really much opportunity for placees to flip shares for a profit. Therefore, I'm wondering whether the selling could be explained by placees getting out?

Certainly all of the comms coming out of NHE have not hinted at any issues.

Is this only on/for Telegram members or will it be live streamed by Stockbox as well?

We know the balance in June 2022 was £760k. Since then, ORCP has raised another £1million, half of which we know has been spent on the land. So that would leave them with £760k + £500k (from the other placing) = £1,260000.

In the 11 months since June 2022, ORCP will obviously have reduced the cash burn from 2022 levels, otherwise they would have run out of money a few months ago! But even if they reduced the cash burn by a third for 2023 (i.e. from £152k to 100k/month), it would still leave them with with very little cash?

So I don't think it can be assumed that there is no need for a placing, because the figures don't justify that assumption imo. Happy for these figures/assumptions to be corrected though, as I'm no accountant! All imo and DYOR

I meant H1 of 2022

I don't think it's £110k every 6 months. You haven't included the cash raised. For example:

31/12/21 - £872,000 cash balance

1/4/22 - £800,000 equity raise

30/06/22 - £760, 000 cash balance

That would mean that in the H2 of 2022, the cash burn rate was £912000 over 6 months, equating to £152k/month, would it not?

Does anyone know or can guess as to what the current cash position actually is? I believe the annual financials will be due next month as well?

This isn't about stoking up fear about an imminent placing. It's more the overall situation, which is whether and what newsflow will arrive here to stop this downtrend, so that when the next placing does occur [whenever that might be], investors can be confident that it will finally take place at higher levels. This has NOT happened in the last few years, so it's perfectly reasonable and sensible to be highlighting this situation when discussion the pros and cons of ORCP.

I wouldn't be so SURE that the next placing will happen after the DFS (although I agree that is more likely), or that this would be the best thing for shareholders/share price. I say this for the following reasons, which might or might not be valid:

1) If there is to be a placing AFTER the DFS, won't that realisation nullify whatever impact the DFS might have?

2) Usually, placings have to be supported by some big newsflow to follow, which incentivises the placees to support the placing.

3) The brokers often influence these things as much as the BOD decide them. So ORCP might have to dance to the broker's tune.

4) Share price has fallen anyway, on some very large sells, which might or might not be forward selling. (Might be worth looking at the chart to see if previous placings have been preceded by similar higher selling volume.)

Therefore, it might be necessary and/or better to get any placing out of the way, and then release the DFS, giving the share price a clear runway to lift off and making it easier for buyers to enter? All imo

GH - companies don't usually mention placings in advance. They just do them. I always look at such things as part of my due diligence on AIM juniors, and then use it as a factor to decide whether and when to invest. Here, there's been a placing every 6 months or so in recent times. For the last one, they only raised the minimum needed of 500k. I don't know what the current cash position or burn rate is, but you would expect there to be another placing in the coming months? So when the last ones have been at successively lower levels, then every reason to factor this in. Obviously, your approach is different. I don't need to de-ramp this and haven't suddenly appeared out of the blue to talk the stock down. It doesn't actually need anyone to de-ramp it. It's already on a downward trajectory and has been for some time. I'm just offering my own reasons as to why that is and what needs to happen to reverse this trend. That's the purpose of BB is it not?

If you're so confident and relaxed about things, then there's no need for you to pipe up so often. Just let this play out in the way that you think it will. That's exactly what I have been doing, and so far, no reason for me to doubt or change the views/calls I have made here so far. GLA

Listened to the interview. The situation here reminds me a little of ORR (and maybe lots of other AIM juniors). ORR were stuck in a downward spiral of dilution. At first, their BOD ignored the issue or pretended it wasn't a problem, arguing that value would be returned in the long run. But the market disagreed, and wasn't prepared to back the share in the face of dilution. Then belatedly, the ORR BOD recognised that the dilution, or fear of dilution, was indeed a problem and keeping the share price on a downtrend. So the ORR BOD committed itself to raising money through non-dilutive financing. A few months later, they announced the possibility of £1 million non-dilutive financing from a Canadian investment bank. Share price more than doubled on that news.

Here, we know that ORCP's projects are all long term and will need some time to pull together the huge capex required for each of them. Therefore, patience is indeed required, as the LTH are saying. But then this raises the legitimate question of how ORCP will fund its own operations during this potentially long wait? The rest of the market isn't going to see this as a strong buy, whilst this downward dilution remains a likely outcome. At its most simplistic, why would the market buy at these levels, only to then be down 20-30%, when the next discounted placing arrives? That's been the pattern/risk so far.

Understandably, Naheed might need a lot of time, working with partner organisations, to secure binding commitments for the huge capex required for these projects and/or progress them in some other value enhancing way. But such progress could take 12-24 months to secure? So how does ORCP finance itself during this (potentially lengthy) period?

Is there anything that Naheed can do to try to raise non dilutive financing for ORCP, which would see it through to the funding phase of the projects, and thereby remove the worry and risk of dilution, or at least minimise it? What options could be explored here?

I think if Naheed can address ORCP's own funding situation, then that would massively help reverse the sentiment/situation here? All imo and dyor