Member Info for Legalwolf

I agree with Skippy. I think a placing now would actually be the most merciful act towards shareholders. I've reflected on it and would argue the following:

1) If they don't raise and Tai is a duster, the loyal shareholders who have stayed in for the outcome will be obliterated. It will be a long and hard road back.

2) If they don't raise, the prospect of a raise will hold the share price back anyway. Catch 22

3) If they raise now, then they open up the following a) more take up of the placing, b) more willingness to buy for the Tai drilling, as there is no raise hanging over the decision, c) less risk of share price obliteration if Tai is a duster, d) if Tai is a discovery, the share price can just let rip and remain high, again because there is no placing required for the appraisal drilling. Isn't this actually a much better way to do it? Otherwise its like running the gauntlet, both in terms of the outcome of Tai and the inevitable placing? All imo and dyor

KR - 10p from these levels would actually be a great result, when you consider how little time there is now between announcing a spud date, the actual spud, and the drill being completed. And if lots of people start selling into this rise, then 10p becomes difficult, as it will be mostly sellers until or unless some positive results come through... but then do you risk waiting for those?

All very tricky as Wyn has said.

Wyn - I totally agree that it is very tricky. How I see it that anyone buying in volume now will consist of the following:

1) Those who truly believe in the fundamentals of Tai.

2) Those who still believe that there is still a strong likelihood of a rise into spud, which they can then sell or de-risk into.

Those in the first camp won't be too concerned about this selling or things like a raise. For them, the share price will take care of itself eventually, with or without a raise. The ones in the second camp will be those who have ruled out any raise before spud, and will just be waiting for signs of life that the selling is over.

Tricky definitely, but also fascinating to see which way it all plays out. All imo and dyor

Louis10 - who knows what the notification requirements are, but i'll check through previous RNS to see whether He1's practice has always been to notify them. I took the information from the 2022 Annual Report, and wasn't able to find any notifications since then.

Dai - it's not normal or expected to list holders below 3%. Some companies do, but most companies only list 'significant shareholders' which means above 3%, unless its BOD. All imo and dyor

KR - I agree, but truth be told, the ones buying now will be those who still believe that there will be a de-risking rise before spud and/or those who are happy to hold into results and/or those who aren't worried about a raise or think its all FUD. Arguably, the highest risk takers, or the most confident about the fundamentals. Will there be enough of such buying volume is the question. But share price is very delicately poised and could go either way.

We don't have all the information we need, and so its a case of taking your bet and chances and hoping you're right.

That's the problem for retail. We can't and will never have all of the information that we need, or that others will have. We are all speculating about Mr Hale, and his 58million holding, but if you look at the volumes, a lot more than 58million have been sold by the looks of it. This is why I asked about the warrants yesterday, as there were about 40 million of these at 3p (with Minchin having 18 million of them) and all the vesting conditions for them had been met. Very important to know whether or not these were exercised!

Whatever the position, it is NOT retail, or de-rampers on BB, who have caused this fall. Just look at the selling volumes and it will tell you that its much larger and more sophisticated interests than that? IMO, there can only be two explanations for the decline in the share price, and neither is very palatable I'm afraid:

1) Ex BOD and their associates selling out. (How much depends on whether or not those warrants were exercised).

2) And/or a placing being worked in the background, hence possibly contributing to 1 above? (This might have resulted in shorting/forward selling?)

More generally, I can't help but notice that those with skin in the game have recently all left He1, leaving behind a BOD that doesn't have much skin in the game. It's not a good look, nor is it confidence inspiring, but it probably reflects what most know, which is that this is a high risk drill and therefore many/most have seemingly de-risked already, including it seems ex BOD and/or their associates by the looks of it.

If its 1 above, then its just a case of waiting for the selling to clear. If it's also 2, then not much that can be done about that and its a case of just waiting for the inevitable. All imo and dyor

That's why I filtered him/her a while back. Very poor emotional regulation and self-control. Simply can't handle negativity about ORCP and lashes out. If the share price was flying, you might understand it, but when its languishing in the doldrums and there's no binding agreements, very little liquidity and all the other negatives, of course other posters are going to start expressing their frustrations, impatience and concerns. Claims to have high confidence in ORCP, yet this is contradicted by the emotional outbursts.

Keep it civil and keep it real i.e. discuss the negatives and concerns, and not just the positives. Makes for a better and mire useful BB. All imo

Okay - I thought someone with more detailed knowledge of the history and geology, and the study that was done in 2018, might be able to tell me that its all justifiable, and to do with things like 23km strike length (on just one of the trends), etc, etc. This was one of the most fantastical broker notes that I have read, even by their usual far fetched standards, and so I thought it worth asking about. It's the kind of thing that when I first started on AIM, would get me almost immediately investing into the stock, before I realised what broker notes are really worth! Thanks for the responses and GLA

I would say that the chart is the best and most reliable read of sentiment, more so than the BB. For example, you could look at the chart and it will tell you what the BB discourse will be? Similarly, if the share price gets to 10p on announcement of spud, and you see that on the chart, then you know that the BB will be talking about share price projections, how wonderful LB is, commercial discovery, JV partnerships, etc, etc.

In the very immediate term, if this consolidation breaks to the upside, then the BB will start to have renewed optimism. If it breaks to the downside, it will be renewed gloom. That's just how it is on AIM and its BB. All of this is part and parcel of AIM investing/trading. All imo

If you believe that BB have the ability to influence the share price, then surely and logically, it's something you also have to factor into your strategy? It would be foolish not to, especially as you have no control over the BB. Therefore, if you belief that the BB is negatively influencing the share price, then adapt to that reality.

I personally think its the other way round, the share price influences the BB?

Good posts Wyn. Surely, if you were experienced, you would understand the nature of AIM stocks and volatility. In my experience, it's the ones who rigidly hold onto fixed beliefs and narratives, calling anything that dares question that narrative a "shyster", and a whole host of other unpleasant labelling, that often end up floundering and flapping in the end. Being experienced and and being able are two completely different things!

Adaptability to the technicals in front of you, and not just blind adherence to your perceived (and often half baked) assessment of the fundamentals is really important, on AIM especially. Whatever you think of the fundamentals, we are currently in a downtrend. It's just the current supply v demand dynamic playing out. Does it matter what has caused the downtrend? That depends on your strategy and underlying reason for 'investing' here in the first place.

The BB are near to worthless, and this one especially, in guiding you through to a successful outcome, with the exception of a few decent posters. You have to identify them as well. All imo and dyor

I'm here for the Hurricane drilling, no matter what the share price is doing beforehand. All this needs is a steadying the ship/calming the nerves interview from AH/AJ, and confirming that we remain on track for Hurricane drilling, and when drilling will commence. We don't even know if they have mobilised Midas to Queensland do we?

As for the share price, it is delicately poised. Today's rise was heavily sold into (look at the volume that came in at 7p) and so I'm not convinced, just yet, that the sellers are done, or that the buying volume is stronger than the selling volume. The current trend is also downward, and so you always assume the trend is intact and dominant, until or unless the price action clearly tells you otherwise. And IF this consolidation/flag breaks to the downside, then expect the share price to retest 6.3p, and then 6p, so the downside risk is still there. We need a bullish green candle on the daily to signal that the buyers are back and back in control.

Let's see which it is tomorrow. All imo and dyor

KR - seriously, how many times are you going to flip flop on He1? Form a strategy and then stick to it, and don't keep changing your mind based on short term price movements, unless you are a short term trader! If you buy and sell based on daily or weekly price action, it will only lead to losses and be ruinous in the long run, unless it is part of a well tested trading strategy.

As and example, I'm in ECR at the moment and its fallen back against my expectations. However, my original strategy/belief was that its share price would rise into their forthcoming drilling campaign. Therefore, I've stuck to that belief/strategy, even though the short term price action is not great. I'm going to let the main event play out.

Therefore, if you have a general expectation that He1 is going to go up from here and into spud, then just sit on those hands of yours and wait for spud to happen. And don't invest more than you can afford to lose if your thesis does not prove correct! All imo and dyor

We should get a spud date next week at the latest?

SJ - "One thing I would say is that at these price levels, perhaps the funding package and Kilimapesa isn't priced in at all IMO (and basically just priced based on current production / equipment set-up). If that is the case, perhaps the downside is limited here now at these price levels. That's part of my investment thesis here."

Agree with the first part. As for the second part, at first I thought that's also a good point. However, I am not sure it can be said with any level of certainty or confidence that the downside is limited. The current share price has not priced in a failure to secure financing - how can it? If the financing doesn't go through, I would expect there to be further downside in the share price and hence a new all time low. It's unrealistic to expect otherwise. Not only will the financing have fallen through, it will be replaced by an increased risk of dilution, concerns about financial stability and removal of any upside scenario. You'll be amazed how much further share prices can fall even at these lower levels, and how much that can hurt in terms of % falls.

So as I said, its binary on the financing, and the financing itself is largely based on information coming from RM, which means you're effectively betting on RM himself! Been there, done that, and the t-shirt is torn. All imo and dyor

The problem is that Bres, arguably, have a history of pumping and then placing. I hope this DFC and China stuff isn't the latest example of it. I don't think any of us were led to believe it would take this long, and if its going to take much longer, then MR should come out and say so, to avoid the wrong impression being created. All imo and dyor

Hi all - relative newbie to CNGR. Read today's broker note. Have to say, it contains some headline grabbing estimations in there which have certainly piqued my interest, but also my reservations:

- TP of 119p to 180p (Brokers hey!)

- Exploration target of 8.8 million ounces from a study by Prof Earls in 2018.

- Prof Conroy (Chair) believes "there could be between 14 and 20 million ounces of gold"

These are some fantastic figures and therefore want to check whether they are the product of fantasy. I will take a more detailed look, but at a first and very cursory glance, I struggled to see how the results on the ground to date are indicative of the above headline grabbing estimates? And with some much gold in the ground (supposedly), why is only 6000metres being drilled?

Therefore, before I go diving in deeper, or whilst I research more, if anyone has any useful/helpful insights on whether the broker note is based on realism or fantasy, they will be gratefully received. All imo and GLA

Yes, I was just thinking that. This is the 'revving up stage' I would say? Some decent sized buys today as well. Hoping for a decent close this week.