Member Info for Legalwolf

SJ - I don't disagree with much of your analysis and logic. IF the financing goes through, then there is clearly upside potential to be had in GCAT for sure, especially from these low levels. In answer to your question, had the OCIM funding gone through, and given a decent POG, most posters on here were confident of seeing an initial re-rate towards 3p - 4p. This was based solely on the Kilimapesa expansion to 24Koz. I don't know about now, as I've not given it any thought yet.

"The way we assess the risk-return trade-off determines if you see good value at the current price, or not. That is ultimately for everyone to do their research on and make their decision."

Again, I agree with this and have been saying as much in my recent posts. I don't wish to run the risk of the financing falling through again, or becoming 'delayed'. Another, albeit secondary issue, is also wanting to see the Prospectus. At present, the interim movements of the share price, haven't changed my risk analysis and overall pov. If anything, a declining and low share price can only fortify my decision to wait, for the reason that I have already explained. All imo and dyor

Does anyone know if Minch exercised his 18 million warrants? It would have been silly not to as they were priced at 3p to 4p.

More like a drunk taking the wrong escalator?

"They will need to create the speculation early into the drill, they had bubbling mud at the surface, remember that video.

Then they can raise on the pretense of flow testing.."

Yes, that's what I meant when I said "positive sounding" results. I definitely think this could be their strategy, but the problem is, I can equally see them hitting us with a raise before first results as well.

So it's a difficult call to make, as we don't know when the placing will arrive, only that it will arrive by the time the drill is done!

Two years is a long time to remain underwater in a share. I would imagine that most will have taken the hit and exited by now? The COS is very low, but I still remember ADV and its 95% COS, which also turned out to be a duster.

Very few of these exploration plays actually make a commercial discovery - probably 10% of them? The rest eventually join the scrap heap. They know it, the brokers know it and the HNW that support these placings know it. No way they are going to be left holding the baby here. Only two possibilities:

1) Raise now at a discounted price. The HNW placees then know they can sell their shares to retail in the run up to spud and/or gas shows and beyond.

2) Raise after results, because it is already known to He1 that the results they are intending to release will be positive sounding.

I don't see them taking a chance on results and then raising, because that would be so dilutive as to be reckless. But maybe they don't care about shareholder value as none of them have skin in the game. Therefore, no big deal if they end up having to raise at 2p, as they can turn around and say 'not our fault and we had no choice'. All imo and dyor

And good luck with your investment.

Ultimately, the market has been told that the financing is close, and yet the market's response is the share price returning to all time lows. That tells you a lot about trust and confidence in the word of RM. I'm sure RM will know that the OCIM debacle will have harmed his own credibility. As I recall, he was specifically asked by Stockbox before Xmas whether he saw any problems with the OCIM funding and he emphatically answered "No". Days later, he RNS the market to say it had fallen through. Let's not forget that months earlier, he also took out some loans, which he didn't even bother reporting to the market. So the trust and confidence thing is NOT solely around the OCIM financing. FOR ME, it stems from a few different areas.

Anyway, it matters not what I think. Everyone should act on their own instinct and trust levels, and buy or wait accordingly. All imo and dyor

For your information, I actually made money on my investment here. So there is no bitterness, only relief. I acted on instinct then, and it didn't let me down. I see no reason to depart from that now. As I said, there is no FOMO in the share price at the moment, so whilst that remains the case, why would you not wait?

KR - the chances of making a commercial discovery are quite low. Or even if they are not low, they are not so high that He1 would base its financial strategy around it. Of course, if they do make a commercial discovery, then you are right, they should be able to get a raise away at much higher prices.

But if they don't make a discovery, it will be much harder for the company to recover, as I don't think the market will have much appetite for supporting He1 explore its even higher risk plays at Eyasi and Balangida. All imo

Yes, it all takes a few months to organise as well. It would not surprise me that when they planned last year's £10 million raise, they were already looking ahead to this year's raise as well. Is it a coincidence that the 4 people who had the most warrant options are no longer employed now, and free to dispose of shares?

I would be amazed if Stalker has decided to hold his shares into spud/results, especially whilst his bessie mate has been offloading. None of these people are fools. They all know the chances of making a commercial discovery are very slim and they all know when He1 will be placing and at what price.

If Tai is a duster, then He1 will be lucky to get a raise away for much above 2p imho. All imo and dyor

As I said, I respect the fact that others disagree re RM, and that's fair enough. I gave RM plenty of my trust and confidence in 2022, and had a lucky escape by exiting just before the OCIM funding fell through. I decided at the start of 2023 that if I was ever going to reinvest here, it would be on RNS confirmation, rather than tweets and interviews. So far, I am not regretting that decision and rather relieved actually. There's no FOMO in the share price, so no real incentive for me to put my considerable doubts to one side and enter in advance of the RNS confirmation. The low share price tells me that the market isn't convinced either.

Doubts + low share price = continue to wait. All imo and dyor

Delicately poised now and next few hours of trading will be quite crucial and it all depends on whether the seller(s) are done, or still offloading. As we are in a downtrend, then still a danger of this being a bear flag in the downtrend imho. But let's see which way it resolves, to the upside or the downside.

The way I see it, they have to scratch each other's backs, otherwise none of them get what they want. The company needs money and goes to the broker, who in turn goes to their HNW to see if they will support a placing. The broker needs to ensure that the HNW make a profit on their placing shares, otherwise the HNW won't support the placing in the first place, and will find a different broker or say no in future. There's a reason why they are HNW in the first place, and its not through losing money on high risk AIM shares!

So the company and the broker need to work together to ensure that the HNW are incentivised and have a winning strategy. Various strategies are adopted from heavy discounts, forward selling, warrants and back to back placings being worked together in one strategy, etc.

If the company doesn't play ball, it doesn't get the funding. The minimum aims are: 1) company gets its funds, 2) HNW providing those funds make a profit, and 3) Broker gets paid. If retail shareholders also win, I would imagine that's a bonus rather than an important consideration, but usually retail are the ones who pay the price (the profits have to come from somewhere!) that goes into the pockets of the HNW and the brokers.

This is pure speculation on my part, but this how I think the whole thing works (probably). All imo and dyor

Not sure if it’s a bear flag emerging on the daily for He1? Next few days will tell.

If the DFC is delayed at the other end, it would be good to get some kind of work from Bres about it. They've just gone quiet about it, which is what is causing the unrest maybe?

IS's holding was around 1% (plus warrants). I don't believe he would be subject to any notification requirements, and we won't know, unless the information is put out, whether and what he still holds.

There were just under 30 million warrant options under 4p, held by 4 individuals who have each stepped down in recent months? Do we know if these warrants were exercised? I think someone said that DM wasn't able to exercise his and I think he had 18 million? All imo and dyor

We need the Hurricane drilling confirmed, as we're now in September. As long as the drill is on, then it's a buy opportunity for me. But we need that confirmation now?

And to be clear folks, I haven't completely written off GCAT, nor would I suggest it's a write off to others. On the contrary, its binary on the financing being delivered, which I think we all agree with. Even my point about the dilution (and wanting to wait for the Prospectus) is secondary to the financing issue. The financing is the key to unlocking any investment here, the Prospectus is more about assessing the likely selling overhang.

If you trust RM to deliver the financing and are willing to get in ahead of any RNS confirmation, then great. I don't have that trust, so I will wait for RNS confirmation. Nothing wrong with either approach, it's more a case of risk assessment, of RM and GCAT. GLA

Funny how the ones alleging a collaboration are the ones who post in unison. I'm just setting out my personal thoughts and reading of the situation. Continue ignoring or disagreeing if you wish, it's a free and open BB for different and wide ranging views and speculations.

I'm raising the obvious and common sense question of whether people are going to be inclined to go "all in" on what is, when all is said and done, a high risk drill, knowing full well that if there isn't a fund raise beforehand, there sure will be one straight after the drill, and irrespective of the outcome of the drill. (The company have already said they will raise at some point.)

Therefore, there will be folk thinking why not wait for results and/or the raise as the best time to buy, because the share price is not really creating any FOMO or reason not to wait?

Just because we're all happy to stick rigidly to our strong biases of share price going to the moon, and come up with conspiracy theories for why that's not happening, the folk who make money are the ones who don't ignore the reality unfolding before them and move and adjust in accordance with it. All imo and dyor