Member Info for Legalwolf

KR - I'm not bothered about winning "friends" on the BB, only concerned about winning money. There's no such thing as "friends" on BB anyway, as its just a bunch of strangers, rather than an investment club as such. I have no interest with building let alone repairing relations with a bunch of charlatans. You really shouldn't bother, and they will spit you out when it suits them as well.

Dai - of course I mentioned the placing several times. I'm surprised it was only 40 times given how long the whole thing took to play out. How many times did Coco, RJ, Turbot and several others mention that there was 'no placing'? What matters to me is not how many times it was raised, but whether it turned out to be the correct call and that I acted on the courage of my own convictions with it!

They can pump it all they like, but its clear that the placing shares are being churned right now. The placing shares will be landing tomorrow, so let's see what happens. All imo

Any placing flippers will need and deploy posters on BB to ramp. These posters are the ones that cry foul the loudest when other people say something remotely negative. They make out as if you are the ones that are posting with a hidden agenda. They can get away with it because there are retail posters, who are none the wiser, and who also want the share price to go up. So unknowingly they support the paid rampers and join in with the attacks. The number of times that I have been accused of shorting, is probably over 100 now. And you get attacked even when you turn out to be correct!

You have to divorce yourself from the BB completely, otherwise you will end up making the mistakes that they want you to make.

IMO, He1 are batting for the placing investors and the insiders, first and foremost. So to understand the share price buying and selling points, you need to try to understand the actual game being played. So for example, we had the shakeout on that Friday RNS, which allowed insiders to get in cheap. They then needed people to start buying again and so we had a period of positive newsflow, starting with the Monday Rig RNS. That RNS also had LB saying there were "no plans to raise in the short term". This had retail believing there would be no raise, and not even willing to even consider the possibility of one (e.g. RJ/Coco/Turbot and many others). There was then a lot of selling to the bullish retail holders, because it was known that a placing was coming up at 6p. It's a rinse and repeat exercise, and you have to try to figure it would and try to align yourself with it, not the BB. They need us to buy when they are selling, and selling when they are buying. It is not always easy to figure it out because it is smoke and mirrors exercise, where retail will be misled/hoodwinked along the way. All imo and dyor

What have you got right so far Turdot? Nothing! And why get so wound up all the time. Must be a reason or agenda!

Anyway, I’ll post what I like and when I like. Don’t like my posts then just hit filter and remain in blissful ignorance.

We have to look no further than recent events, to understand how it works. When the "smart" money needs to exit, it needs to do so at a price that represents a bargain to "dumb" money. At 9p to 10p, when most retail were gunning for 20p and still willing to buy large amounts of stock, the "smart" money was offloading to them en masse. That's why that long consolidation didn't break to the upside. Whether or not "smart" money was trading in knowledge or expectation of a placing, or just taking its opportunity to sell at a level where it could guarantee "dumb" money buying liquidity, none of us will ever know. It will be the same going forward. At least 3 potential selling forces in play now:

1) Dumb money that missed the de-risking opportunity first time round.

2) New retail entrants who will also be looking to de-risk before results.

3) Placing shares that still need to be flipped.

Into this situation you also have to factor in TIME. This is potentially really key to determining which forces will prevail. If spud will be in the second half of September, then there is a very limited amount of time for the next round of the game to be played out, namely:

1) There will be less than 10 trading days from placing shares being admitted to Spud.

2) It will then be another 10 trading days or so before reaching TD.

It will be fascinating to see which forces and psychology will prevail over this very short period.

You just have to spot the emerging "smart" money footprint and try to align yourself with it. Not always easy to do, especially if there's lots of volatility. Get this wrong though, and you could easily find yourself not having an opportunity to de-risk, and finding yourself having no choice but to wait for results and sweat it out. Effectively, a technically minded approach ends up in the fundamentalist camp. Could still end up winning though! All imo and dyor

The biggest issue for me is ORCP's own financing. The work that the RNS refers to represents a huge outlay in itself and well beyond ORCP's own meagre means. Therefore, what we need to hear from Naheed is what are the financing plans for the short to medium term. I don't mean for the capex for any GH plant, as that is still some way away yet, I mean who's going to finance the work required to get to even FID stage?

Timing is key to any investment, and whilst you can't always be in the right stock at the right time, there is a wrong time to be investing in them. Until we don't have a clear and coherent plan for the financing of all this remaining pre FID work, and of ORCP itself, I can't see the market reaction being hugely different to so far. And hence I can't see the share price performance being different to what it has been. Therefore, not the right time as far as I am concerned. All imo and dyor

Isn't it premature to judge the impact of the placing and what price this will or won't hold at, as a result of the placing, until after the placing shares actually land, which is on Friday 15 September, and in the days following that? Not saying some of the impact can't be assessed now, but to complete that assessment in advance of the shares being admitted is rather unusual and jumping the gun imo.

All foolio is doing is trying to stop others from expressing any opinion that doesn't suggest that the sun is shining on GCAT right now. A rather foolish endeavour imho. Some large sells coming in and only a matter of time before 0.2 breaks, unless the financing news lands before this dilution hits. All imo

It certainly would be good to read it, and if there are reasons for not releasing it, or providing key information from it, then that should have been explained in the RNS imo. Not sure how much of a share price reaction ORCP can expect, or will get, from that limited information? Without an explanation, or releasing the information, it will just raise questions and speculations.

I also agree with Panda in that opportunity missed here in not providing NPV of project, IRR and projected free cashflow etc. That kind of information is what can get a strong market reaction.

So rather unusual, but maybe Naheed will explain more in the interviews?

"IMHO they probably haven't been able to agree a time to buy shares on the open market with the nomad anyway so the only way they can get shares is through this type of arrangement."

Skippy - you are making some bad points this morning and plainly also incorrect. They took shares in this placing, so there is no issue of not having time! So what are you on about there? They could have more shares at 6p shares if they wanted to, and that would have been skin in the game, but they didn't.

I agree Deep.

Skippy - it is risk free. They are not buying shares. They have the option to buy shares at 6.6p over a 3 year period. They will only exercise the options if the share price is well above 6.6p and so there is no risk.

Saying they deserve them is an all together different point. I do believe they are well remunerated for their work already and most have portfolios and so even that point is debatable. All imo

I agree Wyn.

Lol ask the CEO directly then. How are expecting anything other than speculation on a BB!

Afraid to release the figures probably, as it will expose her to questions about the unlikelihood of raising such vast amounts of financing? All imo

I think a lot of folk will be waiting to see what happens after the placing shares land on Friday and whether/what overhang they leave.

“detailed techno-economic modelling study was performed providing cost estimates for the complete chemical plant's (the "Plant") OPEX and CAPEX, processes and Plant layout, project execution schedule, technology information and carbon intensity of the hydrogen value chain.”

Would have been good to know what the opex/capex is as that information is key.

Let see what the market reaction is. It certainly could do with and needs some strong buying. GLA

That’s on top of the 30 million that have been granted previously at 3p. Not willing to buy them up front, but giving themselves cheap shares to capitalise on any share price gains. Nice

You need production levels to increase over more than one quarter before you can make that claim. And the financing has been close for 18 months. All imo and dyor

What price will GCAT have to raise this money at if it's unaccompanied by any financing news?

BTW, I thought GCAT had the £4 million facility with ORCA?