Member Info for Legalwolf

Wyn - it's going down because a LOT of holders here were playing a 'rise on anticipation' or a 'rise into results' strategy, which hasn't happened for them. They are/were traders rather than fundamental believers in the commercial prospects of Tai. Many were probably expecting or hoping for gas shows to the rescue, which haven't happened wither.

It's likely going down now because of these traders, and because we have a potential gap fill scenario unfolding on the chart?

Dan1605 - also the placing RNS made clear that the extra shares wont be admitted until 10 October. As far as I can tell, they have not been issued because the total 'shares in issue' here is still showing up as 1.1 billion. If the 0.175p shares have already been issued, it should be showing up as around 1.4 billion, but it is not.

Happy to be corrected about this if you have an explanation?

Dan1605 - I'm going by the posting by D Burton a few weeks ago. Although I haven't been following this BB very closely, to the best of my knowledge, that posting has not been persuasively refuted on here or by ECR?

I personally don't understand why folk are expecting the share price to go up in the run up to results, for what is, when all is said and done, a high risk and binary exploration play, where there is no fomo in the share price? Surely, if you had any interest in taking the punt here before results, you would have done so by now? Those that haven't, are either:

1) Happy to wait for results, unless the share price gives them reason to do otherwise.

2) Happy to just wait for results, regardless of the share price.

When you think about it like this, and factor in that we are midway through the 2 weeks anticipated to get to TD (and with no gas shows reported to date) why is the share price suddenly going to go up significantly before results? All imo and dyor

ECR is a junior gold explorer right? But one that currently has NO confirmed drilling plans and lots of 0.175p shares in issue soon. Little surprise that folk are taking whatever liquidity they can at these higher levels, because its hard to see how the share price trajectory remains positive here whilst they are not actually exploring!

They need to confirm some drilling plans and soonish? All imo and dyor

I think if they have any intention of giving a commentary via releasing any gas shows, we can expect that tomorrow (or Monday latest?). After that, they might as well wait until TD and then update more comprehensively and in one go, albeit they have said final results will take another two weeks thereafter?

RJ - I get the basic premise, but I think your figures are unrealistic. Firstly, if the results are positive, the share price is NOT going to open at 10p. If it does, that will be a spike that will be heavily sold into. You have to remember that market conditions are not great. Even on positive results, 20p cannot be guaranteed in this market, and given the dilution ahead to take He1 to the next stage.

I would say that positive results gives you a gap of about 2p from the closing share price. If you do the calcs from there, then it's not as wide as you have made it out to be. It's basically buying at 5.7p and taking the risks v buying at 2p more but without the risk. If you do the maths on that basis, it looks very different.

Finally, the other risk that are taking on now and before results, is what I call the 'insider risk'. It's very real when it comes to He1. All imo and dyor

I think either approach has its merit and logic to it. The share price is probably a key factor in deciding between them. For example, if the share price were 8p now, I don't think we would even have had this discussion. The 'waiting for results' option is only merited because the share price is 5.8p.

Another related debate is what might happen before results? Will MM test nerves, by testing this gap support, if no gas shows are reported before TD, or will it go the other way and rise on anticipation? So even if you decide to 'take the punt option', there is also a question of its timing, but this might be overthinking it at this late stage.

Anyway, fascinating to see which way it goes and GLA.

Skippys - I think you misunderstand. I'm not advocating or promoting any kind of approach. They each have their advantages and disadvantages. I'm just commenting on why the share price is where it is in response to other people asking about it, and I am speculating that most people are probably thinking why get in ahead of the results when the share price is not providing any reason not to wait?

Wyn - precisely it. You could put in £1000 now and double it or more on a positive outcome. But if you wait for the results, and they are positive, you would be putting in a lot more than £1000. The extra amount invested would compensate you for the higher price you pay for waiting. But your overall profit would be much greater and you will have taken out the risk.

FG/RJ - yes those are fair points as well. (Except that I don't think a gap up of 100% is realistic!)

Skippys - at the moment, there's absolutely no incentive for those on the sidelines to buy in. It's a binary play for those already in, but for the rest, they can just wait for results and thereby remove the risk. So when you think about it like this, you can understand why folk aren't buying. The share price has given no FOMO and therefore no reason to dive in ahead of results, so why would you? It needs gas shows to change this situation. All imo and dyor

They have plenty for these campaigns and will have saved money by doing them back to back, using the same Rig and crew. It's now all about the results from under the ground rather than finances.

Skippys01 - finally!

Kutzz - how is a "wider licence renewal" process not cause for worry, unless its business as usual and standard procedure for Cameroon? Do you know if it is?

Otherwise, I raised the issue of licence renewal well before this RNS, and reading this now does increase that sense of ?

Blubay - don't disagree with any of that, but unfortunately the market is often not driven by such logic, but by emotions and the share price. That is just how it is, especially on AIM. All imo

She said months ago that they were looking to continue buying shares, in fact I am sure she repeated it at the most recent Q&A. The share price has made a new low. Now would be a good time for Directors to support it? Some things ARE in their control and this is one of them. If they can't be bothered to buy shares, and they are all paid well for their work here (and some elsewhere too), then how can they expect the rest of the market to? It's Naheed who said 'they' were looking to resume purchases, not the other way round! So what's the hold up here? All imo and dyor

There are parts of this RNS that might be cause for worry:

1) No mention/update on the CIB. Instead we get "By realising the alternative value from this licence, we hope to provide ongoing funding to support our future gold exploration programmes at both Bibemi and in the Central Licence Package." One would hope that this isn't there way of replacing the CIB plan with this new plan which is effectively kicking the can down the road.

2) "Oriole proceeded to apply for a change of commodity for the Wapouzé licence. Oriole has been informed that the change has been approved by the Ministry of Mines; HOWEVER, a wider licence renewal process is now underway and is awaiting approval by the Secretary General of the Presidency of Cameroon." Hmmm, is this normal procedure? The use of the word "however" made me wonder about it, and what do they mean by "wider licence renewal"? We've been debating the licence renewal process for the wider CLP in recent days on this BB.

So I can't make my mind up whether this is a good RNS or a potentially quite worrying one for the above reasons? All imo and dyor

Whatever has been said in the RNS, or is the intention, I think many (most?) are expecting and hence waiting for gas shows to be reported. I said it before, if none are reported by Friday/Monday, then some (many?) will start to draw negative inference and sell, especially if the share price is still testing the top of this gap at 5.8p.

I'm getting butterflies just thinking about it and I'm not invested, so I can only imagine how those with significant funds here will be feeling as each day passes without a gas show being reported. If they don't report one by Friday, it will make for an interesting (and potentially fractious?) BB discussion/speculation over the weekend. GLA

Newsflash: let's not try to re-write the facts here. It's actually holders here who have been very rightly frustrated and negative about the company. This thread was (obviously) started by a holder. So have many others in recent weeks and months. The natives are getting very restless.

Where is the CEO right now? Why has she only done a solitary interview with friendly Zak Mir since the much awaited DFS? Why isn't she banging the drum with the wider market over the projects, and talking it up more if key milestones are close to being achieved. Does it really feel as if she is about to deliver anything other than another dilution right now? Where are those Director Buys that were 'promised'. This is where any frustration and discussion should be targeted at imho.