Member Info for Legalwolf

Not sure it is purely down to trust, although the RNS have involved a little bit of drama and twist and turns. They don't have a timeline for the Rig repair, are unable to test the basement target, or to drill it again (because of the Rig), they won't be drilling Itumbula now until further announcement, and you also need to see the AGM Resolutions to know whether and what level of authority they are seeking to raise funds. I suspect some might already have the Resolutions.

Plenty to mull over there and to explain the muted reaction. All imo and dyor

Have they brought this forward (the last one was in Feb) and do any of you have AGM Resolutions? I’ve checked the website and they are not showing up on there.

My main point still stands, which is that whatever speculation is entered onto on here, whether positive or negative, genuine or FUD, the bottom line is that a RNS is going to land this week and confirm the truth. So there isn't a great deal to be gained by anyone trying to de-ramp or exaggerate the situation.

That RNS might land tomorrow morning!

RJ - it was a combination of the reference to wellbore stability in the RNS, and BB posts and discussion suggesting that the well conditions will only remain good for a certain period of time. I've taken those posts/discussion at face value in the sense of raising a legitimate issue. If this is not correct, and the well conditions are not an issue, irrespective of how long it might take to repair the Rig fault, then of course I'm happy to stand corrected on that point.

Put simply, I have trust issues when it comes to GCAT - call me a jilted ex lover if you like - so every twist and turn in this long running financing saga is going to be met with a lot of query and scepticism on my part. That's just how it's going to be, or how I am going to be, until we see the damn financing land finally and that also long overdue Prospectus. Obviously, there's the small matter of the suspension to lift as well first.

Did RM mention this bridging debt funding to shareholders in the recent Q&A? Presumably, it hasn't happened overnight and he will have had it mind when he did that Q&A, or is it another announcement that has come out of the blue, whilst kicking the financing can down the road, and continuing down the path of only actually delivering debt, dilution and suspensions? All imo

There's ramping and de-ramping on every BB. It's a fact of BB life. To an extent, we all post from our particular biases and motivations. It might or might not impact short term movements, but I don't think it's going to change where the share price is next week, for example. That will be determined by the RNS that lands shortly.

We all know the basic scenario, which is that the Rig has a problem and they have a certain amount of time it seems in order to fix it, before they lose the hole. So it's back to a binary boom or bust type of scenario. The content, or amount of posts from each person on here, isn't going to alter the update that lands this week, and what happens to the share price after it lands. So we should just all wait for the outcome and not get too exercised by the speculation on here, whether positive or negative. In fact, it seems like that is what the share price is doing, waiting for the update.

Joe80 - not sure that I agree with that. If He1 say the fix is going to take longer than a week, I would take that to mean that they will also be able to preserve the well for that period of time as well. I don't think the plan they are going to come up is one where they incur the expenditure of bringing in parts and personnel from abroad, pay for their workers and contractors to remain on site, only to then lose the well anyway due to its condition. If the evidence is that they can preserve the well for X days, but it will take them X + Y days to repair the fault (or close to), then they will have no choice but to abandon the well? But they have already told us that they are looking to resolve the issue as soon as possible, which can only be so if they are confident of being able to maintain the stability of the well in the time it will take them to carry out the repairs. Obviously, this might change if they discover the "international" dimension means that it will take them longer than X days, but the comms they have issued to date have not suggested this. All imo and dyor

Crusty - if that red dot arrives on Friday, it will be a case of opening it with some degree of trepidation me thinks.

Elsewhere, Noble presenting at a conference at the end of this week - that might be worth a listen.

I do wonder whether any of the BOD get a finder's fee for securing these extortionate loans - as has happened before? All imo and dyor

Spare a thought for those of us who have been patiently waiting for results now for way longer than expected - it's not been easy for us as well you know! 😒

Okay, in all seriousness, the update was promised this "week", and not on Monday or Tuesday. I am not necessarily surprised it hasn't landed already, because of the nature of the problem. In order to give the market a definitive timeline, theirs probably all sorts of things they have needed to work through, and the recent interview gave me the impression of that this isn't as straightforward as the previous delay, which was simply about ordering the part from in country.

If there is no update by Thursday am, then I would start to worry, because you probably don't want a Friday RNS to land in the current circs. They tend not to be good news. Main thing is that they get back up and running and are able to test this well, and not whether they do so within 5 days or 20 days.

As I've said before, even if it takes 20 days, that sets you up nicely for a Xmas bazooka!

RJ - I have to agree with others. Emotions are seemingly getting the better of you to the point where you’re not even able to read posts properly anymore and have resorted to just lashing out on them.

I’ve been very clear that I think the timescale will be one of “weeks” and so where you have gotten “months” from is rather bizarre. I’ve also said that it matters not what anyone thinks will be the timescale because we are about to get the actual answer from He1 in “days”.

You just seem to like making snidey comments at others and whether it’s caused by emotional pressure from over investment and/or a character/personality defect, it’s a tiresome and rather boring MO.

As for He1, been reading today's posts with interest. I can understand when an update is weeks or months away, that you might want to speculate in the interim. However, we are going to get the update this week, so I am not sure it's worth getting into the speculation or guessing about the Rig. Also, I am not sure how the person who speculates that it will be a long wait can be any more or less reliable than the one who speculates it will be a quick fix. To the best of my knowledge, He1 have not said exactly what the fault is (other than in very general terms) or what parts or personnel they need internationally to fix the issue, such that anyone on here can say for sure or with a high degree of reliability what the timescale is. The most that I am thinking right now is that they have a well to preserve, so any plan that they come up with will have to have to be consistent with how long they can preserve the well. But again, we will find out soon enough.

The whole 'only put in what you can afford to lose' can be a bit difficult to achieve in practice, especially if you are not a trader. For most, if they think a stock is going to make a big move up, they will inevitably want to put a decent amount in, in order to make a decent return. Otherwise, what is the point, unless it's just a bit of fun and pocket money investing? Therefore, whilst technically you can afford to lose the amount you put in, it doesn't mean that your emotions won't be triggered nonetheless, if you start to see such a loss emerge. We also need to remember that many or most are not traders with stops in place, but folk who will have bought shares through an ISA?

10 days is nothing really, and to be expected if parts/personnel need to come in from abroad. I would say that the main thing is that the fix is done properly, because the last thing you want, is for it to breakdown again and compromise the well. So anything from 2 - 4 weeks is tolerable imho.

I think it's fortunate that they raised the cash now for Itumbula, because it should enable them to fund their way through all this. If there's a discovery to be declared at the end of it, then it doesn't matter about Itumbula, and they would probably want to appraise Tai 3 before drilling a second exploration well anyway?

So are we broadly all thinking it's going to be fix the Rig (weeks), wireline testing (days), re-enter the well to finish drilling the basement target and then testing the further drilling? All to done and drilled before Xmas?

IF that's the update we get next week, then really good imo?

And the fix.

Is it only parts that need to be sourced from abroad, or also personnel to help with the diagnosis?

At least it's not a 'plug' the well, shut up camp, fix the Rig, and then return at some unspecified point next year situation. That would have been the worst outcome from here - and a repeat of the Tai 1.

I think the market should be able to tolerate a wait of weeks, or even a month. December is a good a month as any to announce positive news.

I didn't like the way he came across in the interview either, but I guess if he doesn't do many interviews, he probably went into thinking he needed to sound positive and upbeat, whereas LB probably had a better handle on the temperature in the room than Mike. But at least they said they would update us as to what the plan is next week, so it's not a long time to wait.

Mike is clearly a positive sort, he even tried to draw out some positives: "highlighting and fixing these issues only leads to improving the operational capability of the Rig for future operations."

To which the interviewer replied "well there is that I suppose!"

She looked hacked off (understandably) and no doubt Mike was dragged in to account for and explain this latest mishap. Mike on the other hand was coming across as if this was the first problem encountered! So the plan is going to involve bringing in personnel and/or parts internationally. That doesn't sound like it's going to be quick at all, and she also referenced the cash position and having people on site with specific roles that they presumably are not able to do right now. Not the most re-assuring interview imo.