Member Info for Legalwolf

Can you be "ready for action" without it?

"In a weeks time we will get a picture of the rig, mast raised, ready for action."

Joe80 - I'm not sure that's realistic, and didn't LB say 3 weeks to get the Rig sorted?

Joe80 - you're going from respected poster (at least about Rigs), to now coming across as posting to serve your own holding. It's rather obvious as well, and you've lost the subtlety that you previously had. All imo and dyor

Chesh - when it comes to repetition, you win hands down. I know you want to ramp for your own purposes, but in the process, try not to dictate to others.

I can't see what's positive about the share price? It's lower today than it was yesterday. There isn't massive buying volume at these lows, which tells you a lot. Unless this changes, and it will need positive news to trigger it, a retest of 2.7p is as likely as a rise. But what positive news do He1 have right now?

Furthermore, IF there is a placing coming up (which if so looks like it will be in the 2s), you can't really fight against that kind of scenario either. The placing would be the sensible time to enter here imo, or when He1 rule out a placing, otherwise you risk having your legged chopped off when the placing lands. Most folk know that and that's why the volume/herd isn't arriving right now? All imo and dyor

Given the share price fall today, are the late reported and large trades buys or sells?

It looks like the market is expecting and prepping for a fund raise. Once this kind of fear hits, it usually needs an unequivocal statement from the company to rule out any fund raise. With the disappointing outcome at Tai 3, the difficulties with the Rig, and the share price on the floor, IF there are no plans to raise, it is almost a dereliction of 'share price duty and sentiment' for the BOD not to re-assure the market with such a statement. After all, it's their decision to bring forward the AGM to renew the authority to raise funds, that has triggered the placing concern.

This doesn't mean there won't be any bounces in the share price, but it is hard to see how there can be a sustained rise when placing concerns start to hover over the share price. All imo and dyor

I think they will look to drill as soon as they can in the new year. A lot of questions still need answering around the drill, such as retention of third party services/drilling crew, etc, and obviously the finances.

If they are going to raise, whilst work on the raise will have commenced in the background already, the most likely time for announcing it be after they have completed the Rig repair and have a drilling timetable all sorted out for Itumbula and Tai basement. All imo

Can't see them chancing the financial future of the company (and their own livelihoods) on the outcome of Itumbula. In fact, if there's one thing that this drill will have taught them, it's that they were absolutely right to raise the Itumbula cash before spudding Tai. They will do the same again before spudding Itumbula. The timescale also fits in with the AGM as well. If they have no such intention of raising, then it needs a statement to that effect from them. Notably perhaps the finances weren't covered in that interview.

LB didn't take the opportunity to say "fully funded", which given the outcome today and share price fall, she would have done as one of the few positives to give back to shareholders. She didn't, so that is also perhaps an indication of what's coming down the line here. Short term swings won't alter this macro scenario. All imo and dyor

She looked and sounded rather downbeat, especially at the start. So it looks like a 2 -3 week window for getting the parts in from overseas and then fixing the Rig. Drilling in the new year then with a raise in between now and then looks like the plan to me?

Joe80 (or anyone else with knowledge) -

1) What's the likely additional cost of casing the hole, as opposed to just plug and abandon?

2) Should they have a Rig repair timeline by now?

3) What is the likely cost of fixing an issue like the one they have experienced with the Predator?

It doesn't matter what they have raised before. The first drill has gone over budget and will have eaten into the budget for the second drill, as will the repair for the Rig - and ongoing situation. They are not going to go into the second drill, without having funds to cover its outcome as well. They have also bought forward the AGM. I do think it's all pointing again towards a raise, with the only question being at what price. All imo and dyor

It was obviously a disappointing RNS - even the 0.8% is far less than was hoped for. IF they need, or are planning a placing, BEFORE they will be drilling at Itumbula, then obviously it will have to be discounted again in order for them to raise the millions necessary. If so, that doesn't bode well for the share price in the near term. We can only hope that any forthcoming placing has already been worked in the background, and the share price is moving to the placing price (as has happened with previous placings). If it ends being discounted from wherever the share price settles, that will be extremely painful. Therefore, I suspect they might already have worked it? All imo and dyor

Interesting theory and at the risk of sounding dismissive, does it actually change the near term equation here, which is that if the results next week are not positive, no amount of exciting sounding future plans are going to prevent the share price from taking a hit? And if that happens, most of the folk on here won't be around to see any such future developments.

Equally, if the results next week are really good, then that's a potentially company making development in itself and so again, the future will take care of itself, and I'm not sure how much additional sentiment/excitement Eyasi will create over and above a Helium discovery at Rukwa?

No point looking too far ahead me thinks, right now this is all about Tai, and future tie ups aren't going to impact on the near term share price, which is what most folk on here care about. Just my two pennies worth.

As for results landing tomorrow, if it's a 'straightforward' and wholly positive RNS, then yes it could land tomorrow, but if it's a mixed bag with good news and not so good, or still leaving the discovery question open, that kind of RNS might take a bit more time to draft. It's the most important RNS of the campaign and they will want to get it right. All imo and GLA

You don't usually get bad RNS on a Monday? Unless it's going to be one of those 'mutton dressed as lamb' ones.

Let's see what late reported grey trades we get today. I did wonder whether all the massive grey trades from earlier in the week were in fact sells (and posed that very question on here). If they were buys, then it is hard to explain this price action and where this has closed - why those same large large buyers haven't gobbled up at 5.6p, if they were happy to pay over 6p etc!

Fear of missing out or fear of being in? You never know with He1....

They were budgeted for two wells. They raised for the second well before drilling the first. The first well has taken much longer than expected. So it is reasonable to assume that they will have gone over their budget for the first well. The Rig has also broken down, which also will have added its own cost implications. So it is reasonable to assume that some of the money earmarked for the second well has been/will be deployed in sorting out the issues with the first well. I am sure you all heard LB allude to "cost implications" in her most recent interview? So money is on their minds and part of their (contingency and future) planning it seems.

Obviously, we don't know what their future plans are, and can't therefore say with any degree of confidence whether or not those plans will necessitate a further raise, and if so when.

My personal view, is that IF they announce that they are packing up at Tai for now, but will return to redrill Tai (or Itumbula) in 2024, I would not be surprised to see them raise again BEFORE they embark upon that next campaign. All imo and dyor

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RJ - had there been a week's gap between the two RNS, then fair enough. But we went from 'sorry no Rig and we are considering our options, inc continuing to work with Sofori' to the very next (business) day: 'hey, we have purchased a Rig AND mobilised it to Tanzania!' Noble might have forced their hand in the timing of the first announcement, but they didn't write it. And it is very difficult to believe that the content of the second announcement was not known about when the first announcement went out. You are right to focus on the future, but then these kind of 'company character traits' can also manifest in the future as well.

Anyway, looking at the Resolutions, it's obviously not a JV or offer that has caused them to bring forward the AGM. All imo

Okay - think of it like this. How did 9/10 people interpret that RNS? That it was disastrous, and this BB went into meltdown (myself included) in response to it. Now go back and look at the buying volume that came in on that announcement. I rest my case.

Firstly you want us to believe the Rig deal was executed over that weekend! And then you want us to ignore the buying volume that came in on the disastrous RNS was co-incidental? What next, that Santa Claus is coming to help fix the Rig and we have full use of his Sleigh and Reindeers to rapidly bring in the parts and personnel needed? All imo