RE: Buy, Hold, Merry Christmas5 Jun 2026 12:25
My complete guesswork (but also based partly on what MR has said) is that the situation is maybe follows:
1) P2 debt funding has been secured in all but name, but there is a long process to go through. The DFC will be cornerstone funder here, but will first expect BRES to work with private sector debt funders and maybe even exhaust those options. The main problem here is its a lengthy process. Whilst BRES could secure P1 and P2 funding through this process, it would delay P1 production beyond 2027, and BRES don't want to do that. This sense of urgency is good to see.
2) P1 funding, although for a much smaller amount, is therefore being done separately. Although the data room process also takes time, it is probably nowhere near as long as having to go through the DFC, and BRES will have (more) control over the timetable, so that they can aim to conclude it in time for P1 production to commence in 2027.
The difficulty here might be that P1 funders will want to be confident about BRES securing P2 funding. Alternatively, that they will bargain harder with BRES based on how 'secure' the P2 debt funding solution is, which might in turn depend on how far down the P2 process are, or what assurances they have from the likes of DFC.
There is probably a sweet spot here that BRES have to reach in terms of advancing the P2 process to a point where they can reassure P1 parties that P2 funding has been de-risked. How far they are able to do this might then determine how good a deal they can secure from P1?
So I can understand why MR is saying its a complicated process with various moving parts that can't be rushed in order to get the best outcome. A bit of patience needed, but it should be worth it.
I think when P1 is announced, we can be fairly confident that it signals that P2 funding from the DFC (and others) is then only a matter of time - and we can expect it to be announced in 2027, whilst construction begins for P1. Hence P1 should trigger a major re-rate towards that initial broker target, and we can expect the winning P1 bidder to be announced in Q3. All imo and dyor
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