Member Info for Legalwolf

Char won’t be able to release price sensitive news ahead of ENOG. I doubt ENOG will adopt the approach of an AIM listed company. Might mean a longer wait but more conclusive news at the end?

"I very much doubt there'd be on site progress / developments, as suggested by the satellite imagery if indeed all wasn't going to the plan as communicated in the recent operational RNSs. The timeline imagery seems to show greater activity / structural advancement on site."

Are you referring to Heron 1 or Heron 2 here?

Thanks StM - so no more drilling is now going to take place at OC as part of the DFS?

I agree that any discoveries at Heron 2 and/or Gobi will boost the share price, but that kind of news can't land until Late Oct/November at the earliest. Only the spud of those wells can be announced right now, which we already know about. The most crucial well right now is Heron 1, and you need to be sure that it is not being caught up in jurisdictional shenanigans. The next RNS will confirm whether or not this is the case, and the share price will rise or fall in response to this part of the RNS imho, and not confirmation of spud at Heron 2/Gobi.

Not holding stock at the moment due to my assessment of the current situation and risks. I do have doubt about whether my assessment is correct (i.e. whether there will be delay at Heron 1) . But I have little doubt that if it the next RNS leaves the same questions and uncertainty about Heron 1 as the last one did (i.e. delay to production), then the share price is going to take a hit, which spud at the other wells is not going to prevent, until or unless those wells result in discoveries.

So I'm on the sidelines for now pending the next update. Let's hope its positive on Heron 1!!!

It's my personal view only, and I might well be wrong, but I do think the share price here only goes on a sustained rise IF the news on Heron 1 is good. The fact that MATD is drilling Heron 2 and Gobi is all fine and dandy, but there is some uncertainty (whether real or based on misplaced fears) around Heron 1. If there is any sign of delay at Heron 1, then that's going to harm the share price regardless of whether Heron 2 and Gobi drills remain on track.

So this next RNS needs to confirm progress with Heron 1, with Heron 2 and Gobi remaining the side shows until results are in. Heron 1 is the flagbearer here, and therefore the next RNS needs to confirm receipt of the permit and that all is well with PC. All imo and dyor

No need to apologise Isleworth - your question was fair enough.

I don't think there's much that any of us can really say right now that hasn't already been aired on this BB. It's just a waiting game for all of us and none of us know (not even BG by the sounds of it) how long the wait is going to be, whether weeks more or months more?

I'd be happier to take the punt if it wasn't for the cash position, but feel very uncertain about buying into the double whammy situation of substantial delay and placing risk, as either one of these will result in further share price decline and losses. So I think I will wait for the next update, and can't see how none can be given by the end of this month, even if the delay continues.

Does anyone know when Bres is looking to commence drilling at OC, which I understand is an integral part of the DFS work? Have Bres confirmed how much drilling will be done etc? Is the drilling already covered from existing funds, or will it need the SI money to come in?

I'm not saying it won't come good, or that matters won't proceed as per the presentation. What attracts me to MATD is Heron 1 going into production. The drills have the potential to add additional upside and I expect them to go ahead on time. But Heron 1 is the main event, and I am less sure whether that is on schedule.

However, the next RNS can't be too far away, as they will be spudding the first well in just over a week, so that will likely be preceded by a RNS, which will need to give an update on Heron 1 as well. So I am happy to wait for that RNS and get some further insight into whether and what is on track, and will buy back in if all is going well.

Karl - I sold out as there was no point in allowing my profits to be eaten away by this delay. I can now buy back at even lower levels than what I held before, but have not done so for the reasons I have given (and summarise below). They are genuine reasons (even if they might be incorrect or deemed FUD by others) as evidenced by my reluctance to buy back in.

Nowadays, I try to manage my AIM positions more actively, so that if I get a whiff of trouble, or my confidence levels change in the expected delivery of news flow, then I will look to protect my capital first and move on quickly. As OMI is demonstrating, things can change so quickly with an AIM stock (both fundamental and technical) that you have to be nimble. Otherwise, you end up nursing heavier losses, giving up profits, or waiting a long time to go back into green (which means opportunity cost as your money is tied up) etc.

As I say, I am fully prepared and cashed up to buy at these levels. But if no deal lands this month, I can see this dropping even further, or at least there is a clear risk of this. The whole situation is different to when I first bought in ~ 6 months ago, where we were looking at drilling in May and then fund raise at higher prices. Now its unclear whether and when we will be drilling, and the need for the fundraise is obviously still there and much greater than before. Generally, I don't like getting involved in a AIM junior that is not cashed up and has placing risk. What is the sense/point in that? All imo and dyor

We need the drilling to commence. It's about 6 months overdue already! If or once it does commence, that should kickstart things here, and the beginning of a period of positive newsflow, which CMET really needs.

The fact that no one can reasonably answer the question doesn't remove the importance or relevance of the question, when it comes to assessing investments and risks.

That's exactly right and how I see it. I also think the funding needs might actually delay the completion of the DFS, which then moves all the other milestones back as well. For example, isn't there a drilling programme to be completed as part of the DFS? Do we know when this drilling is actually going to start and how long it will take? What about the results from the programme? Presumably, and especially if they are to be fed into the DFS, they will need to be lab accredited results.

Hard to see how all this and the DFS gets done by Q1 of 2025?

As always, merely my own thoughts, and happy for others to counter and/or correct. All imo and GLA

Haven't seen the latest interview (as rather lost interest in HE1), but LB definitely mentioned the need for an appraisal well at Itumbula and previous interviews. I'm also confused, because over at HEX, they are describing their current drilling as an appraisal drill, but are also doing EWT?

So the term "appraisal" is becoming a bit blurred.

Jazim - your post made little sense and didn't actually answer or allay the concern or questions I raised. Also, if we are checking facts, then you will note that I specifically asked at the end of my post whether the views expressed therein where "overly harsh or the reality of how events seem to be unfolding?". This is meant to be a BB for discussion after all!

As for the facts, here are the underlying ones:

1) Heron 2 to spud in Mid September. Gobi to spud at the end of the month! (As per last RNS).

2) Heron 1 awaiting construction permit and deal with PC.

3) We are already in Q3 to early Q4!

I think it's difficult to be sure that Heron 1 will be in production before the first drill is completed. I'm not ruling it out, but I'm more inclined to think this won't be the case, and that we will get the drills completed first - assuming there is no delay to them.

I note that the last RNS mentioned "the normal winter operational shutdown in late November." Presumably this applies to all three wells? IF so, how much of a time window is actually left here for getting the construction permit and the PC deal over the line, and then into production. How long is any winter shutdown, and does there come a point in time where there's no point trying to take a well into production until the other side of any such winter shutdown?

I think these are all relevant questions for a BB meant for discussions and questions, based on some underlying facts. All imo and dyor

Olderandwiser - this is merely my opinion, and others here will (vehemently) disagree, but Bres isn't going to re-rate until funding issues are fully addressed and thereby the risk of lower price dilution is demonstrably removed. I fully accept that this is what Bres are saying they will do/have already done, but I think the market will move only on the confirmation of this, rather than its promise. Especially against a backdrop of the SI promised funding having seemingly gone awry.

I currently hold 0%, but am looking to increase this upon demonstrable funding progress.

Isleworth - re your 20:25 yesterday, you must be confused. I sold at higher levels due to fearing delay and decline in the share price (a good and lucky call in the end). However, I remain very much interested in OMI but am concerned about buying even in the mid 2s, due to the seemingly never ending hiatus over the Anza deal, and the current cash position meaning a raise is looming ever closer.

So my "negativity" is more to do with timing (which I know you can never get right, but you should at least try) rather than suggesting there is nothing good about OMI. If that were so, I wouldn't have bought before nor would I be wasting my time on here.

Hope that clears it up.

"We had already studied alternative funding options via equipment vendor finance and offtake finance, which are not dilutive to equity. This is now the Company's base line strategy for taking the Project into construction, with a staged approach, getting it self-funding as quickly as possible."

That sounds good, as does drilling to commence next month and looking to double the project NPV through it. GLA

Whatever the motivations of the majors, the fact remains that this deal is taking far too long to conclude for reasons that appear to be unknown and a timescale that is also unclear. This, after having agreed a LOI and being in negotiations for well over a year. The bottom line is that the longer it takes, the more the risk to the current share price and the closer you get to the inevitable future raise.

You can call out negativity, but no amount of positive posting changes this fundamental reality either. The same positives have been posted for the last X months and what good or accuracy have they done/had? Some of the positive posters, esp more recent ones, have seemingly bought at higher levels and are now forced to justify this by more positivity. It aint fooling anyone either. The reality of the current hiatus remains....

I made this observations following the last RNS, which is that the risk to reward on offer here has become very unclear, after looking like a no brainer only a few months ago. Basically you have the following situation:

1) Heron 1 is de-risked in terms of knowing the oil is there, but is NOT de-risked in terms of being able to extract it out of the ground, because it needs a construction permit AND a deal with PC. There is currently no timescale on either of these boxes being ticked. Therefore, until this situation changes, Heron 1 isn't and indeed can't offer any reward, and indeed carries high risk if the authorities delay or don't play ball - as they have done before.

2) Heron 2 and/or Gobi are oil drills which always carry risk. I don't know what the COS is for either of them, and understand that Heron 2 maybe has a higher COS because of being on trend with Heron 1. But they could go either way.

Overall, it is less than clear now whether the next news here is going to be Heron 1 related or about the drills, and whether it will be positive or negative (permits and deal, successful oil drills) or negative (delay on Heron 1, dusters).

This feels rather different to the scenario that was sold to us around the placing, which was Heron 1 in PRODUCTION followed by or alongside potential new discoveries at Heron 2 and Gobi. So risk to reward doesn't feel as clear as it did following the last presentation? Is this overly harsh or the reality of how events seems to be unfolding? All imho and dyor