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It's not manipulation - it's investors not knowing whether high risk drill results are going to land first, and before Heron 1 production news lands. So many might be thinking to get the drill results out of the way first (because they are likely to be dusters or there is a high risk thereof), then let the share price take the hit on these drill results, and then buy back in lower when Heron 1 production might be closer to becoming a reality?

So just a different assessment of risk v reward from the next few RNS here. All imo and dyor

Aeschylus - have MATD said anything about "winterised Rigs"? They have mentioned a "winter operational shutdown", which presumably will apply as much to Heron 1 as it will to the other sites, otherwise why mention it at all?

So there is a bit of a race against time here to get Heron 1 into production by next month, until or unless MATD state otherwise.

Yes, definitely one step forward rather than two steps back. Question still remains as to how long this TSX approval is going to take, and hopefully there will be nothing that comes up in the conditions to scupper things. No drilling can or will take place until the process is complete. But I guess its now more a question of "time" when previously there might have been some doubt about "if" it would get agreed because of the delay.

Now it comes down to whether and when drilling will take place, and whether or not there will be a cash raise before it does. These aspects remain tbc.

What is frustrating is why did MB/MATD not visit the facilities when he visited Mongolia a few months back, if doing so was such an important part of the process. It's just frustrating and not impressive to only be doing so now, when you have had dealings with PC for several months. Not good management at all. All imo and dyor

I must be reading a different RNS. The deal has not been concluded yet and awaits TSX approval and other conditions. It might yet still need a shareholder’s approval. So progress yes but conclusion not yet is my understanding of it.

Put differently, it now makes sense to just wait for these risky drills to be concluded because it’s clear the share price is not going up before they land. So why be sitting ducks ahead of those results rather than buy afterwards?

This needed/needs Heron 1 to be in production before it will go up. Thats a simple and cold reality. Until then it remains a high risk.

MB expects us to be impressed by being invited to inspect facilities causing more delay when we just want a deal signed!

Not really. They can only treeshake if the RNS leave some room for doubt, which they clearly do in that the deal with PC and permit are likely not going to be concluded in time for Heron 1 to go into production in 2024. That’s the reality based on the RNS.

How further forward is OMI really? This is basically going back to an earlier update which implied the deal had been negotiated but was waiting regulatory approval? So the wait goes on? Not wishing to be negative but that is the actual position.

Completion of the Acquisition is subject to a number of conditions including, representations and warranties being true and correct on closing, compliance with covenants, delivery of financial statements of MMA, the approval of the TSXV (including shareholder approval if required by the TSXV), registration of the pledge agreement and no orders of a governmental body prohibiting consummation of the transaction.

Sounds like a lot to me? Especially shareholder approval meaning it will drag on?

I don't see how being invited to review the PC facilities is in any way good news, or is necessary? As well as adding delay - when is this visit going to take place? - you can't help the suspicion that its just been thrown into the RNS to sugar coat the delay issues that MATD are facing.

MATD needs one or both of these drills to be successful now, to make up for the delay with Heron 1, which delay won't be resolved by the time results are due. If the first reported results are bad, then this will challenge the placing price by the looks of it.

No point having the oil in the ground if the authorities are not going to let you extract it. All imo and dyor

Thanks Dr R - all understood. I wish I had luck getting anything out of BG, but I don't. It's appalling that he is selective in who he responds to, and it doesn't help at all with sentiment and confidence. But anyway, it looks like September will be a make or break month here.

There is no incentive to buy or hold ahead of risky drilling results. You might as well wait for the results and pay the premium if they are good, or buy at bargain basement levels if they are not good, and you still believe that MATD is a good investment. You can still get the reward that might be on offer here without taking the risk!

That's probably why folk are bailing. Come back in 30 days and see if things are any better. All imo and dyor

Good post Yela and summarises the position well. I am also concerned about whether the deal has hit a snag, because really, minor issues do not take 5 months to resolve. The delay has to be something more substantial?

On the issues of finances, am I right in thinking that only a 800m drill campaign is planned at Pepas to start with? If so, it shouldn't cost all that much?

Dr R - what makes you think financing is being sorted other than through a placing? Is that based on special relationship comms with BG?

Is there a silver lining here, namely resolving all the bad news and getting rid of all the gremlins before relisting? I don't know, but just wondering if they want to relist only after a clean up? Or am I clutching at straws here...

Each to their own, but i'd rather exercise patience by getting these high risk drill results out of the way first. Then see where the investment case and share price lies. But all imo and dyor

It's not just the permit though, the deal with PC is still in discussion. Granted there's a high chance it will get agreed, but the issue is how long it's going to take.

This is NOT one of those situations where you just have to be patient. No, the time taken is actually significant in itself. If Heron 1 production is delayed until 2025 - which is looking increasingly likely - than in the interim, you are at the mercy of drilling results being good, to cushion the blow and nerves from this delay.

But imagine the results are dusters and you have delay at Heron 1. That equals disaster for the share price.

So risk is starting to increase here against reward imho. But each to their own.

More a case of investment timing. You are no longer buying ahead of production news, as was the original investment thesis. Rather, you are now buying just in front of O&G drilling results, which are always high risk.

If you take Heron 1 out of the equation, would you still buy simply and just on the basis of these upcoming drills? Like that, than just buy any O&G drills and see how quickly your money disappears.

Not sure about MATD - I thought I was buying a new producing well with potential upside to be added by drilling. Now it looks like risky drills to be concluded first, before any production commences.

Completely different risk to reward scenario imho

Not surprised - the two things needed for production at Heron 1 are still outstanding and you also have the unlikelihood of taking a well into production just before a winter operational shutdown in November. Therefore, the market will know that the next significant news here is increasingly likely to be the drill results at Heron 2/Gobi.

So this is turning into a high risk and binary play. Arguably the highest probability outcome here for Q4 is a RNS announcing a duster and continued delay at Heron 1. All imo and dyor

As I have been saying in recent weeks, it is looking likely that drill results will land before Heron 1 goes into production. If the permit and deal with PC don’t land in the coming weeks, then will winter become a factor in November?