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The bottom line is that from the emails comms that folk have had with BG, there is little to nothing to suggest that next week's update is going to say anything materially different to the previous ones, namely, that the deal is still pending, meaning this saga will continue into September. The timescale is out of BG's hands and he remains "frustrated" albeit with little shares in the company taking the hit.

When next week's 'yet more delay' RNS lands, and MM take this down further, it will be hard for anyone to feel the positives. It is imperative that the delay RNS provides some kind of timescale, because simply saying it will extend into September is not helpful at all.

Is that the same Governor that has history with MATD? If so, then it could be a long wait.

It seems that MATD appears to have a few twists and turns left in yet and before Heron 1 goes into production. The jurisdiction isn't the best when it comes to doing things speedily, and so if they are waiting on a construction permit, then that brings an unknown time delay/risk into the equation. Why wasn't this permit sought previously?

Is the newsflow this year going to be focussing mainly on drilling, with actual production now facing delay?

Thanks both - most drilling comes with higher chance of failure than success i.e. less than 50% COS. I recall a question in a shareholder Q&A about Gobi being a wildcat. Maybe Heron 2 is less so. But these drills are high risk events, and so I would not want to hold MATD shares going into these results, unless before they land, or near to, Heron 1 goes into production and revenue. Basically, following scenarios:

1) Heron goes into production and this is followed by disappointing drill results.

2) Disappointing drill results land and Heron 1 is still awaiting production.

3) Heron goes into production and drilling results are good.

4) Drilling results are good followed by Heron 1 going into production.

Obviously 3 is the dream scenario, followed closely by 4. 1 is okay

But there is a risk on today's RNS that you could end up in scenario 2. So risky...

Thanks Impecunious - so as of today's responses, which must be the most recent anyone has had, the CEO isn't able to offer any re-assurance and is basically helpless and hostage to circs. This is the clearest and most recent indication we have had the deal is NOT going to get concluded anytime soon imho.

Not great to read at all. All imo and dyor

There's no way MATD will mention the role of a "Governor" in a RNS.

Impecunious - it's good that they are amusing and intelligent, but are they actually helpful and re-assuring and indicative of the deal being concluded soon and about funding?

I don't think there's any reason to get personal folks. The delay is understandably going to cause a lot of angst for many, whilst equally there will be others with a more glass half full outlook. In the current circs, both pov are understandable.

I think I've got a similar view to Seingred, namely, that funding as much as the delay is the main concern for me. The longer this takes, the greater the risk of OMI having to fund raise before any deal is concluded, or before any Pepas drilling/results. Because BG is not aligned with shareholders, how much will he really care about dilution?

I don't know about confidence. As retail traders/investors, get your timing wrong by failing to have an accurate read on what might happen next, and your suddenly sitting on a large (paper) loss. I am far from confident that Heron 1 will be producing BEFORE the outcome of one or other of Gobi/Heron 2 are known. It looks to me like MATD could make faster progress on drilling these new wells, than they will in getting the existing well to production oil. If so, this is actually quite important in trying to work out risk v reward.

For example, what happens if the first reported results from the new wells are negative? We have already witnessed (or at least discussed) what MM/sellers can do to the share price here on good news, what are they going to do if there is bad news? To put it more bluntly, if either of Gobi or Heron 2 get reported as dusters BEFORE Heron 1 is reported to be in production, then won't the share price be hit hard. I also understand that Gobi is wildcat?

And so the order of fundamental news/events is going to be key. Of course either or both of Heron 2 and Gobi could end up being discoveries, but the odds are usually against positive outcomes.

What we need here is Heron 1 in production, before the outcome of Gobi/Heron 2, so that if the drilling is negative, that blow can be cushioned by Heron 1 producing and generating millions. It won't work as well the other way round! So that's where today's RNS has put some doubt into the risk to reward on offer just now.

Is the smart play getting the (risk of ) dusters out of the way, and then buying cheaper for Heron 1 production to follow? All imho and dyor

Dr R - I just think that if BG was hopeful, we would have heard more from him on tweets and he would not ignore emails, as he has no need to ignore them. Plus the fact that they were still in discussions/negotiations according to the most recent update and/or its been described as a complex transaction, all just has me surmising that it won't be concluded this month.

BT - you have taken "out of their hands" too literally. I was referring specifically to the current situation of this Anza deal, where the timescale for concluding this particular deal might well be out of BG's/OMI's hands, as its down to lawyers/third parties and the regulators. You are right that there might well be other (and better?) options compared to this particular transaction, but clearly OMI have chosen not to pursue any of them, and so it's all down to this Anza transaction.

Thanks KR - that's very helpful and will check out the ones that I am unfamiliar with.

I'm very wary about Mali as a jurisdiction right now, particularly when it comes to mining licences. Mali is caught up in the geopolitics and very much aligning itself with Russia. Therefore, I worry about UK listed companies operating in Mali - a good example is Cora Gold - share price decimated by Mali's moratorium on issuing mining licences.

Re MATD - I also read the flow rate as referring to the past. But does it matter? As in, if the previous flow rate was tested to be 800bopd, why would it differ significantly now?

It's a very unfortunate situation and looks very much like it's totally out of the company's hands, which sort of makes it worse, because there's nothing they can do about it. What compounds the situation is that the company can't afford to wait because of the cash drain in the interim - I'm shocked to read that BG's salary is £170k - is that true or just exaggerated?

Anyway, once we get the RNS next week that this is going into at least September (which is what I expect will happen), I fear this is going to drop to 2p, because no one is buying and the MM won't hesitate to drop it on bad news as per usual antics.

KR - I tend to track the US market and use it as a bit of a barometer for the overall stock market. When US market fell and most shares were dropping here, I got the jitters and decided to act first and think later. Also, the summer is not the best time anyway, which just added fuel to my jitters. I thought it best to keep my powder dry for Q4, which tends to be a much stronger quarter.

Anyway, I'm not sure it was the right call by me, because the market has bounced back reasonably well. So I'm now looking to rebuild the portfolio, but not as many great looking ("get in early") opportunities, and so might have to concentrate on a handful of stocks - which might be no bad thing.

KR - I exited most of my positions a few weeks ago and am now mostly in cash, with the exception of KAV (long term hold), and GEX and CHAR (where I'm looking to build). Very annoyed at myself for exiting HE1 way too early, but there you go.

I'd say that order of events is now open to debate based on today's RNS?

That's helpful, because I was wondering whether it might be because you tend to champion him and OMI on here. Understood and will keep persisting then.

Without production, it's basically going into high risk drills, which if the results are not good, MM will just use to tank the share price. So the order of newsflow is quite important here, in that it's unclear whether Heron 1 goes into production before the drilling results come through at Heron 2 and Gobi.

That's the risk/reward scenario for retail traders/investors to mull over I guess?

I guess folk are thinking they might as well wait for results now given how close they are?

Dr R - not having a go at you personally, but just curious as to whether there is a reason why BG only seems to reply to you? A number of us have not had a response which does raise its own questions. Is there a special relationship here that we need to know about?

I think the news is a mixed bag and has left me unsure about buying. Ideally, you want Heron 1 to go into production before you get drilling results from Heron 2 and/or Gobi. If it happens the other way round - which it could if there's delay with the authorities over the permit and/or the PC deal - and if the first drilling results are not good, then obviously MM will use that as an opportunity to hit the share price. So in terms of newsflow (fundamentals), will it be good news or bad news next?

The news was mostly good, but I guess it's the fact that MATD need a permit from the authorities and co-operation with MRPAM over the PC deal before Heron 1 can do into production, which maybe introduces a bit of doubt and/or risk of jurisdictional delay.

Does raise the question of what's likely to happen first now? Will it be production at Heron 1 or drilling results from one or both of Heron 2/Gobi? The first is undoubtedly a good news story, but the latter are of course risk or reward events?