Member Info for leehardcastle

Gold is up $770 as of this minute since the start of 2026, that’s also $1000 higher than what 2025 Q4 results closed at, as MTL makes its cash from gold, and oil is still under $100 the advice to relax is fair advice Sakura, this turmoil is an issue for leveraged investors in leveraged investments, we are invested in precious metals and we hold paid for shares, paid for, not leveraged with margin calls hitting your inbox, let them burn, it’s gambling not investing, MTL is functioning as usual and enjoying that $1000 dollar increase on 2025 Q4 numbers.

Looking well advanced, amazing to think that’s just 14 months from an idea to over half way built.

Now that’s quality management for you.

Funny you said Tikitaki, my close friend with nearly 13 million MTL said that same thought this morning, if we have 5 million ounces in Nic, we could put Runrunos processing plant along side and double La India output, no doubt that would be amazing, although we would be slagged as a one jurisdiction miner again, can’t please some.

Darren Bowden made absolutely no noise, hints or suggestions about the deal with buying out Condor gold and the La India asset, it came completely out of the blue, we knew as investors of MTL it was an imperative requirement and many fretted over what was to happen, purchase a new deposit, expand Runruno assets, or close shop at the end of Runruno's existing reserves and pay us out a one of final dividend with the profits, closing shop was a stupid suggestion, some investors actually hoped for it, as a well paid exit.

My point is I would take this silence as another case of Darren springing another deal out of the blue, I would say the pivot from Dupax was so final and decisive, he had this deal in sight then, how many months that takes to bring it to a point of acquisition in unknown, but he's mentioned H1 2026 so far.

The Q1 numbers are looking extremely health based on $4850 average gold so far, and it's this extra incomes that has allowed him to look at another shovel ready acquisition, something not possible when Dupax became the cheapest target to expand Runruno's life span.

The extra $1500 plus rise in gold since Dupax was initially targeted is enough to pay for the next acquisition outright, so lucky us, don't think for one minute that the Runrun processing plant is to lay idle for long, its all part of the growth Darren has talked about and his MTL $2 billion market cap prediction by 2028.

Happy days coming for all.

Smoothbrain…you could double the price of oil from the $70 dollar price in Jan 2025, and double the effect mentioned on out AISC, and its effect would be $300 an ounce in extra oil costs per ounce plus extra inflationary costs of say $200, our AISC would be $1700 and out FCF margin $3500.

That’s still more than double the origional $1670 FCF margin expected on the purchase date of La India.

My point is MTLs margins are soooooo big, when we produce as planned, we are making record high margins, it’s just how big are those record high margins? It’s an unprecedented time for gold miners, and yet it’s not seen by the majority, we hold the golden tickets already.

WTI crude oil currently $86 and it was $70 dollars in Jan 2025 when La India became MTLs property.

As we are talking about opinions, how about getting some factual perspective on the effect of the oil price in relation to current gold pricing.

When MTL bought the La India project on the 15th Jan 2025 gold was priced at $2670, we had 23 months to predicted 1st pour and estimated AISC of $1000 (Oil percentage of that AISC is around 25%) FCF margin predicted at $1670 per ounce.

Today we have gold at circa $5200, 9 months to predicted 1st pour and estimated AISC of $1200 (Oil percentage of that AISC is around 25% or $300)

If oil rises 50% our oil expenses rise $150 dollar, other cost in the AISC may increase due to the inflationary effect of higher oil, say another $100 to cover that effect? So we had an AISC of $1200 but with increased costs + $150 + 100 we have an inflated AISC of possibly $1450 in a $100 oil environment, $5200 gold less $1450 AISC is a $3750 FCF margin.

So to get perspective, when MTL took over the La India project we was excited about a $1670 FCF margin and yet even with a higher oil price environment we are looking at $3750 FCF margin should oil remain in the region of $100.

The margins are huge at any oil price by comparison to what we expected 14 months ago, so sit tight and wait for these last few quarters to pass and the big earning to start IMHO

Major….please stop de ramping, we know you halved your holding, do so with grace, is it wrong for Drachs to hold 600 million? Or Candy 650 million? Or our top CEO 200 million?

The ones with big holdings believe we are onto a winner, you put faith in other miners, post on those boards about those instead.

OIL $84 now…..something’s changed?

$88….$5130…..$86

Looks like oil had an over reaction, dropping hard now.

The gold price is holding extremely well, so is silver, and that’s against a falling stock market where many margin calls on leveraged investments are sucking the life out of assets like gold and silver, and yet it holds steady above $5k and $80 respectively.

As for the reality on the ground for MTL, the only effect is higher oil prices, the effects on diesel prices so far is small, and MTL have already been through $100 plus oil back in 2022 when Gold was massively lower.

The margins remain massively higher than Q4 2025 with a $800 higher gold, the additional diesel costs will be soaked up with ease.

If you are invested for longer than a month or two, it’s a blip, and is another chance to add, the La India build is not in danger because of an increased cost in diesel, and we are not directly part of the missiles and bombing.

Keep calm and wait for gold to do what it does when these situations rise, JP Morgan have gold at $6300 this year for a reason, that video posted by Sakura is a great explanation if your looking for direction, Clive is extremely knowledgeable about markets.

Facts:

Best to Worst performers this Year so far, YTD.

Gold spot price: plus 19.6%

GDX ETF: plus 18.25%

Silver spot price: plus 18%

SLV ETF: plus 15.5%

FTSE 100: plus 3.35%

FTSE 250: plus 0.41%

DOW Jones: minus 1.82%

NADAQ 100: minus 2.23%

S&P 100: minus 3.5%

Bitcoin: minus 22.05%

If this war and all the other wars haven’t pushed those to Gold as a safe haven? Explain why gold is up 18% YTD already.

Gold is doing exactly as it’s always done, offered a safe place to park your wealth with zero third party risk.

Find me another index or asset that’s risen more YTD that doesn’t involve precious metals, I’m interested.

Good to know Mac….your the biggest holder I know of outside of the big 3 we mention.

Have you an opinion on MTLs near future and longer term plans?

As you are always quiet it would be lovely to hear your thoughts.

Chillboots…Its not a might produce for MTL, it’s clear it will produce, the only might is will it have delays? But delays are setbacks, not an ending, but as we are ahead of schedule and we have the capital to finish the build, a set back is unlikely.

The comparisons companies all have issues, lower gold outputs, desperate for more reserves, mine builds ahead etc so they too have reasons for low valuations.

Your correct that the whole sector is ripe for a huge increase in price, as the profits have exploded and the financial results, years ends are about to demonstrate that, bringing in fresh interest and a rising sector market cap.

MTL is cheap on all metrics.

MTL still on sale, it’s so far behind the sum of its parts it’s a logical opportunity to increase your holdings cheap, the maths is clear to what we produce today and what we have ahead of us, it’s unclear what Runrunos processing plant is to do next, but it’s clear we are lucky enough to have the cash available to purchase a reserve to fit our equipment, yet we have sellers in droves, and have for those 6 months, why? My take is fatigue in LTHs and the opportunity to capitalise a profit arrived once we hit 16p, and it could be just a few very large holders, we know Mellon was the largest, but there are a few very large holders from the MTL camp too, Mac had 33 million alone, not heard from Mac for a long time, every rise to date is followed by heavy selling from a number of consistent sell orders, its both an annoyance but also an opportunity, read past their motives, they may be like Mellon, made enough and need the cash for other investments, projects, passing on wealth etc, and age comes into it too, a 70 year old has very different outlook to a 50 year old.

The grass has been greener with other goldies for those 6 months, but it only reinforces the fact MTL has a lot of catch up ahead, who the sellers are is unimportant as constant selling has one end result and that’s you end up sold out, buying MTL stock at some point will overcome the selling, news is aplenty for 2026, and Q4 2026 is a breeze away by comparison to what’s past in the MTL history, La India is transformational for us, a huge proven asset at record gold pricing, the shareprice will catch up.

Have a great weekend.

Don’t let it all bother you CuckoldKing, the business runs like clockwork and what we say has zero effect on it, we can praise and many can moan, come go or leave has zero effect on the future incomes and the future acquisitions, we know both are on the horizon, and the good times with it, at the moment $45 million quarters will keep us honest.

Something that was brought to my attention a while back was the lack of skilled CEOs available today, when metals prices had suffered the bear market from 1982 to 2003 the companies lost profitability and many skilled personnel moved to other industries, the internet and associated electronics became the new booming industry and its left a void of skills, the current pool of skilled mining staff with a proven track record in metals mining is low, and as the metals prices have now exploded, the refreshed motive to start new mining projects will struggle to find the skills, and even harden to find those with both mining skills and previous proven success.

We are extremely fortunate to have Darren Bowden, and his tactic of using those he has worked with in the past and training in-house new staff is key to our future success, it’s clearly in play today at both Runruno and La India, with La India build ahead of schedule, and Runruno making $100s of millions FCF, it’s all down to Darren Bowden and his team.

Darren Patrick Bowden

   •   Profession: Mining industry executive

   •   Role: Chief Executive Officer of Metals Exploration plc

   •   Nationality: Australian

   •   Born: August 1969

   •   Education: University of New South Wales (Civil Engineering)

   •   Experience: Over 25 years in the global mining sector. 

Career highlights

   •   Became CEO of Metals Exploration in 2019. 

   •   Has worked with major mining companies such as:

      •   Glencore

      •   Nyrstar

      •   Anglo Coal Australia

      •   Mubadala Investment Company

   •   Involved in developing mining projects in Australia, North America, and South America. 

He has worked on major mining projects such as:

   •   Minera San Cristobal (silver/lead/zinc project in Bolivia)

   •   Prodeco coal project in Colombia

   •   Minesa underground gold project in Colombia. 

More personal information:

Darren joined the Board in January 2019 and is a Mining Executive with 25 years’ experience building and developing mining projects across Australia, North and South America. Darren has worked across all aspects of the mining business from M&A to technical to operations and executive management. Some of the notable companies for which he has worked include Anglo Coal Australia, Glencore, Nyrstar and Mubadala. Some of the projects in which Darren has been involved include the Minera San Cristobal a silver, lead, zinc project in Bolivia (green field), the Prodeco coal project (brown field) as the VPO and for Mubadala as the CEO on a large underground gold project (green field), Minesa SA, in Bucaramanga. Darren is a Civil Engineer from University of New South Wales, Australia and is focused on driving strategic development and the successful optimization of companies.

Just checked my maths, Darren, Drachs and Candy have 1450 million between them.