Member Info for leehardcastle

That makes sense, but of coarse the better grades next year may surprise us, it’s what we should be enjoying sooner, but at least we have that benefit ahead, my little pension pot will be swelling nicely in time for my 56th Xmas on this planet, good work my fellow investor ;-)

Wow, I was just typing that question to you, I was guessing 2022 Q2 but I knew your spreadsheet would have the answer, fantastic stuff, I’m still confident based on that to have us debt free late 2023, how do you see it, of coarse higher gold prices can make that shorter.

In that case, the senior debt is reducing quicker than I thought, although we are paying more interest, I calculate $1.15 million per month on those figures at the moment, the upside is the senior debt is getting paid down quicker, triggering the revised Mezzanine facility 7% interest rate when it’s cleared.

The interest on the 15% loan is the majority of our interest accumulation, it’s high, but it’s affordable, the Major shareholders deal was our best option to carry forward the company, the other option was shareholder dilution to lower debts, non of us wanted that, so the finance deal we have is OK, I agree, we need to get the 7% loan paid down ASAP to reduce the 15% loan to a much easier 7%, we have $55 million to pay down before that happens, the $55 million I believe will be settled by 2022 Q3, which is a game changing point, where the high interest loan should evaporate at a much quicker rate, as interest will only be 7% or $360k per month at that point.

The interest is $1 million per month at the moment,
$62 million @ 15% is $9.3 million per annum
$55.5 million @ 7% is £2.75 million per annum
Total debt $117.5 million with $12.05 million interest per annum.
That’s $3 million interest per quarter reducing as we reduce the balance, when we settle the remaining $55 million at 7% then the $62 million @ 15% is automatically reduced to 7% saving us $5 million a year, at that point, interest will only be $4.34 million per year instead of $12 million per year as we stand today.
We are still set to have our debts down to the late $90 million by the end of the year even at $1700 dollar gold, 2022 will benefit us with higher grade gold recoveries and surely Covid has been controlled via vaccination by then, so we will accelerate profits vastly and get us to the lower 7% interest rate by Q3 2022.
I think we still on for much higher gold prices this year, and that speeds up thing considerably, every $100 dollar increase in golds value is around $7 million additional clear profits per annum.

Those invested, as in those waiting for the debt free position paying a dividend are wanting reassurance with each update, and we got it, those playing to trade can do as they please, the big gains are in near future, and today has cemented that fact, MTL is finally a stable gold producer making solid gold profits, and it will continue. Happy days

With Covid effects and our higher grade gold in phase 3 and 4 not starting till late 2021, that’s solid reassurance to have a company guidance, a first, a sign business is now stable and predictable, efficiency notched up again to 82%, very solid update, and the future looks even better, if gold can creep up as expected, bonus, but were not reliant, happy days

Upper guidance would generate $120 million revenue at current gold prices

As for share price reaction, I’m convinced 2021 Q1 and Q2 will be the major tuning point, if we carry on with our ever improving production, the debts will hit the 90s (that’s $90 odd million) and that’s a significantly smaller number, physically and psychologically, by then Gold will be back on track with its bull phase, and the two together will attract serious attention, and serious investment, IMHO.

The market maker has been filling some some large sell orders, but we have been soaking them up, although the mid price been marked up artificially high has had the buys indicated as sells, the seller is Ruffer in my opinion, and it’s not because they have lost faith or have inside info, they simply want to sell out of all AIM holdings, and have been doing this for a year or two now, a huge reason why we are still so cheap, we haven’t an accurate number on the holdings remaining, but the numbers must be getting low, and once cleared we will have no head wind pulling us back, 2021 Q1 numbers will I’m my opinion be another peg up from 2020 Q4, the mine was running well last year and the weather should be much better this period, so fingers crossed, 21k ounce at $1800 average is my guess, we will know this week.

I wouldn’t worry, I’ve never had experience of MTL leaking info before results, my suspicion, 10 million of our offloading institutional investor Ruffer in action, they must be running out of shares, they have been selling down for ever, volumes are big enough to facilitate their sells with the run up to Q1 results getting us excited, if it wasn’t for them I would say we would have stayed over 3p a long time back, but, on the bright side, it’s offered us long termers time to increase our holdings, and newcomers an extremely cheap entry point, considering our epic transformation in the last 12 months, once they have sold out, we will see a re-rate, have no doubt, £40 million annual profits makes a laughing stock of our £29 million market cap, and every quarter is adding 1p to our real value, if Q1 achieves similar income numbers to 2020 Q4, then we should be 3 to 4p in reality, gaining 1p every quarter till the dividend starts, we just need to lose the Ruffer anchor, big volumes should finally blow them away, and let us achieve realistic valuations, It’s a shame we haven’t had accurate updates to the institutional investors holdings, but if they are reducing, private investors holdings are increasing, that’s fine by me.

CarefreeCarry....nice link, It looks like we won’t have recovered our costs by the end of the 5 year allowance due to our horrible start, that period ends July 2022, but states it can be extended subject to the DENR Secretary’s approval, I would imagine we would need another 9 months before clearing debts, based on current profit generation, although we may accelerate profits that speeds up the debt pay down, for example, higher grade gold in phase 3 and 4, constantly improved efficiency and higher gold prices, the original debt schedule agreed with the old banks was based on 10 quarterly amounts, and looking at our recents profits, along with the next results will give us a better/accurate prediction to how quickly we can achieve the debt free position with our new lenders, sometime in 2023 is about the best we can say at the moment, but with each quarter results, we will be able to work a more accurate prediction, 21k ounce Q1 please Mr Bowden, keep the ratcheting improvement going.

I was of the understanding that we would start paying the governments share of profits once we were debt free, is that how you read it CarefreeCarry?

If you look at the AAZ numbers you can see they hit shareprice lows of 4p in their darkest days, when they looked unlikely to find finance to continue, which happens to be 10 x MTLs lowest shareprice of 0.4p in Dec 2018 where we looked like defaulting with the banks, when AAZ secured finance and production increased, they hit 33p in Nov 2016 which was is just over 10 x MTLs recent high of 3.1p in Oct 2020 when we achieved stable finance and solid profits, 5 months later in April 2017 AAZs share price had retreated to just 16p, about 10x MTLs current retreat of 1.5p shareprice today, again 5 months after our recent high, but AAZ bounced back to 33p just 6 months later in Oct 2017 as production was bringing down debts fast, and that’s where I see MTL in another 6 months, about a tenth of 33p at 3.3p, and following a similar path in the future to AAZs fantastic recovery, which took 4 years and 7 months from all time low to an all time high of 174p in Aug 2020, if we take a similar path, we should hit an all time high by June 2023, 4 years and 7 months after our all time low, could it be a tenth again at 17.4p? time will tell.

AAZ went like this:
Jan 2016...4p
April 2016... 6p
November 2016... 33p
January 2017... 20p
April 2017...16p
October 2017... 33p
January 2018... 45p
October 2018...72p
January 2019... 87p
April 2019... 70p
September 2019... £1.73
March 2020... 74p
August 2020... £1.74p
October 2020...£1.08p
January 2021... £1.65p
March 2021... £1.42p

Key word.....Patience

Q1 results will be released in 1 to 2 weeks, another set of results to equal or better 2020 Q4 and you have a crystal clear validation that MTL are running a highly profitable business, and if another 2 years to clear down debts is too long to wait, where a 10 to 15p share price would be fair value, a 700% to 1000% increase on today share price isn’t enough reward, I’m not sure what folks expect from investing? If my house worth £400k today was worth £2.8 to £4.0 million in 2023, I would say that was worth waiting for, wouldn’t you?

That’s the Q1 numbers are in the bag, looks like we held an average $1800 dollars over those 3 months, 21k ounces would be lovely, any more will be showing off, figures historically have been released as early as the 8th, so late next week onwards for our eyes.

And another 100000 for me, we are so cheap its unbelievable.

This interview is so good, it breaks down why inflation is already here, why it can’t be stopped and owning why “stuff” including Gold is an inflationary hedge,
https://youtu.be/Qdcqj_OKUfQ

Edit, a 15p share price paying a 1p dividend is 6.66%

I’ve bought another 100k then 250k today, why? Because they are cheap, why are they cheap? Because todays market cap of £30m shouldn’t be producing £40 million profit this year, but we will, that’s based on facts, based on previous numbers, based on $1700 dollar gold, so what if the share price is slow to respond, keep taking the cheap shares, because they will not be here in 1 years time, I bet no one here thought it possible to be 1.5p after all that’s happened in the last year, secure finance, zero default possibilities, gold at $1700 dollars, 20k ounce quarters, fully serviced mine, brand new heavy plant, £6 million cash in the bank, the list goes on, we can’t expect news other than quarterly results, as we are now a settled company, day to day running is not news, and with each quarter the debts shrink, patience is all you require, 2 years patience is nothing, we have been going 15 years and we are not exaggerating when we say MTL have never been in as strong as a position as we are today, so what if the market outside of us long termers don’t know it, but always remember this, when MTL are paying 50% of a £40 million annual profit to the shareholders, that’s 1p per share, for the 1.5p you paid for shares today, that’s a 66.6% revenue, will that ever happen, of course not, the share price will be 10p and folks will be happy with a 6.66% revenue, and that’s the goal, so don’t despair, you have been buying chunks of a cash generating machine, one that starts spurting like a fountain in just over 2 years time, just look at AAZ, they did it and have 30 folded from lows with their 6% dividend, I will keep adding at every possibility.