The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Yep sebo, the initial investment of 2m plus 8m, is substantial and should do wonders for the sp. Would like to see a comprehensive in depth/ extended drilling programme to prove up further resource and grades, in parallel to mine/ port development.
Pretty new to Cmet as an investment, but the potential here appears to be off the scale.
As I understand it, the Jorc report that is the basis of LBs investment and is the financial basis for the construction of the mine, is based on approx 10% of the EMP area, which was 84 km2, recently extended to 108 km2.
The data for the Jorc came from auger drilling, limited to 3m depth but subsequent sonic drilling has shown mineralisation down to 14m.
So, the 17mt of THM has been derived from 10% of the area and possibly only 25% of the depth, suggesting only 2.5 % of the total possible volume. So a theoretical 40 X factoring of the identified resource, emphasis on theoretical.
It appears that LB are looking a lot further ahead than just the existing Jorc resource, with their $80m investment for just a 50% share of $262m free cash flow over 10 years. It does appear they have the larger game in mind.
In addition to this mega potential, Cmet have exploration licence applications made for a further 600km2 area, both on and offshore.
This is without labouring the point of excellent overall THM resource grades and the contribution from the higher value minerals.
Looking forward to how this develops. If any of the above is absolute codswallop, feel free to amend as necessary.
Once the 5 bob traders have been shook off, there is a lot to play for here. Small mcap with a sizeable JV partner in the wings waiting to sign on the dotted line, when conditions are right. Can't really see the sp lurking in the 2s and 3s for too long. Just unfortunate that we have global issues at play re: the general market.
A lot more positive on the buying front after the recent slide into the two's. Do wish the MMs on the bid would keep pace with the trading , with 2.97 to buy and 2.91 to sell going into the close. Makes you think they have an agenda to do otherwise 🤔
Ezhik: Yeh, seen a few of their videos and they are a pretty good tribute band.
Marquis: Thats me, a spades a spade and not an earth turning implement.
Regarding PHE - not invested at the moment and TBH not likely to be in the forthcoming, because PHE appear to be in reset mode and have gone back 3-4 years.
The CEOs seem to just come and go and that gives the impression there is nothing at PHE, in terms of strategy, objectives, deliverables that makes them want to stay, just a salary.
Planning permission at Protos got the okay, over 3 years ago, and basically nothing done on Plot 10B itself, with nothing causing Peel and potential partners to commit financially.
The development strategy of the company appears to flip flop in line with the lack of progress, i.e. originally the plan for Protos was to get the plant to syn gas production and electricity generation, being fed into the local grid, with Hydrogen generation being bolted on after the plant had been proven at commercial scale. Now the story is that the hydrogen market is not developed enough yet for the technology, so no point ploughing ahead.
The DMG demo was moved from Australia to Thornton for the purpose of feedstock testing and proof of concept and now the process is being repeated at Bridgend with a new FTP. Wouldn't surprise me if the only thing up and running at Bridgend early next year, will be the old demo unit.
HUI, IMO is also clouding the issue with various partnerships and agreements with little real progress, with no clarity regarding the overlap with PHE.
To cap it all, there is the White family in the background, pulling various strings. So all in all , to me, a bit of a dogs breakfast, to say the least.
Obviously all IMO.
Just listened to KR's interview and to say the least I am absolutely dumbfounded, what a House of Cards PHE has been and will probably continue to be , IMO.
To suggest that there wasn't really a demonstration unit to display PHE's wares to make the licensing model work is staggering, I'm questioning what I saw at Thornton 4 years ago and what DR and KR were explaining to me. It must have been an oversized gas cooker with a flame at the end of a pipe. Has this been an issue of scalability and the inability to prove that there would be no real technical issues in upping to a commercial size?
To also suggest that PHE have only really started from April this year and the approach of let's forget about the past, is showing disrespect to the shareholders who have supported the company over the past years, through the various CEOs, with their misleading plans and promises.
Also, now to suggest that getting the right type and quantity of feedstock is not as easy as first thought, what the eff has this company been doing for the past 4 years or more..............completely staggering.
So its now, back to where PHE was years ago when the DMG unit was moved from Australia to Thornton, to test feedstock and undertake R&D, and round they go again.
That £6m, or whatever they have in the bank won't last that long, with little to show, IMO.
Piltick:
Its been over three years since the planning application was made for Plot 10B at Protos and that to my mind is a massive amount of time to line up the feedstock supply for the DMG, either on a short term, prove the FOAK works at commercial scale, or for longer term contracts.
Previously a two stage approach was being promoted i.e. build the FOAK to create syngas and generate electricity, (to feed into the Protos grid) which would prove the commerciality of the technology and then bolt on the refinement to hydrogen process, as and when funding and support allows.
This appears to have been dumped and a complete process FOAK, and all that entails is now being touted.
IMO, this is part of the reason for the lack of confidence in anything being achieved by PHE if the goalposts are being moved around and is being used as justification for the lack of tangible progress on the ground or in terms of process contracts.
Hi Bert
Still here in body and mind but not in terms of an investment or even as a trading opportunity. That boat sailed a while back.
It's been a few weeks since I've been to Plot 10, but it was as Plantdad says, just becoming overgrown and derelict.
The whole fiasco regarding CEOs and the White position have, to my mind, undermined all confidence here and a lot clearer direction of travel needs to be communicated before that general confidence starts to return.
The continuous 1m, and don't forget the continuous 300k sells do smell of a pre placing off loading to me, allowing the seller to fund the placing and receives discounted shares, just a massive averaging down situation.
Caveat emptor IMO
IMO institutional placees have a different mind set to standard investors, in that they need to keep their cash working and will cash out for an overall 5 or 10% even if it means selling a proportion at a loss, rather than wait for shareholder value to materialise. They can be earning multiple 5% by churning their cash whilst we wait for the market to realise the potential here.
Greetings all.
Have been watching Mosmans progress over the years, having been first invested in 2014 with Petroleum Creek and through the failed STEP acquisition and then Pine Mills etc.
I am financially slightly ahead with my Mosman dabblings, but the recent result and further potential at Cinnabar does have the feel of a corner being turned. Never good to count one's chickens too early but if flow rates stabilise anything like initial flows then the potential for the sp could be considerable, considering the acreage (348) at Cinnabar.
With the sp bouncing along the all time bottom (thanks to certain parties who appear to be trigger happy in offloading their shareholding) it won't be long before the placing overhang is despatched and potential investors in Mosman see the light IMO.
There are speed bumps to watch out for on the journey, I suspect, funds for further drills, warrants being exercised etc. but as production increases the risk of the former decreases, which should put upward pressure on the sp.
Puts me in mind of PXEN which lay dormant under the radar, with their Spanish assets, until recently, which gave them a 5x return.
It'll be interesting to see how things pan out.
MJA:
The plot was cleared of trees and bushes about 2 years ago. Whether this constitutes project start, I don't know.
Regarding timing of project build,I gleaned from the KR interview 3 months for contract refinement and a further few months for financial closure, so a possible build start in the summer, maybe.
Just watched the interview, and I understand it was done with all good intent, but I feel it didn't do PHE any favours. It appears that PHE has lost all sense of direction and has several disconnected fingers in several pies hoping that something materialises out of something.
No permanent CEO in place after losing the last one after a short tenure, to provide the direction that the company needs.
The company suffered massive dilution of shares with the buy-out of W2T to obtain the exclusivity, directly with Peel, to be a mainstay within their Plastic Park philosophy for the UK, with KR now saying it's an option for Peel, and PHE may stick with it or may plough their own furrow with other partners and forgo the exclusivity. Are Peel on board with the idea of the DMG process or not ???
Another 3 months for contractor fine tuning and "value engineering" (used to be called screwing the supplier costs down) and a "few more months" to secure financial closure for the SPV. So, not much happening at Protos on Plot 10B until the second half of 2023 then, as a best guess.
The royalty financial model of £500K per unit per annum is now being replaced by something that is yet to be negotiated and agreed, which maybe just for Protos as it is still murky around the partnership that PHE has with Peel IMO.
PHE are going to build a testing and research centre somewhere next year and will cost how much to be funded and how?
Manchester University are on board with their Fluid Dynamics software to help identify any issues with the kiln design when upscaling to commercial quantities. Shouldn't any upscaling technical issues have already been identified nearly 3 years after Protos planning application was approved? What would have happened if Peel had the finances ready to go in 2020 ? Would it have been "oh, hang on we need to check whether we can build a bigger kiln"
KR comes across as an engineer who could talk theory all day, IMO, and is trying his best to bandage up PHE until someone is found who can make sense of where PHE is at the moment and get some strategic direction in place with the right partners to support the company.
No problem Bert.
When you describe the dependencies of the Plastic Park in those terms, it does seem pretty daunting, before we will see a fully functioning DMG in place.
However, I don't fully subscribe to the idea that all elements of the Plastic Park need to be in place before we see a DMG in operation on Plot 10b. Ultimately, yes, as this is the overall objective, but I would have thought an interim feedstock supply could be sourced with electricity generation from the syngas feeding into the grid via the new sub-station. We may be surprised by the rate of progress on Plot 10b, when we have financial closure. All IMO.