The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Https://twitter.com/shaun_day_/status/1664575475702956033?cxt=HHwWgoDQse2k4ZkuAAAA
MidasMac - SD tweeted "late June" several days ago
1. ASX listing
2. Feasibility study
3. Decision to mine
4. Updated MRE 11 August
5. More Reserves - these can be taken onto the balance sheet
6. Low AISC
7. Valuation of gold - Newcrest updated MRE 17 August 2022 used an economic assumption $1,300/oz for gold. It's now 50% higher but this is never mentioned by detractors
8. Drilling at EG
9. JV finds
10. Scallywag strikes
Keep adding to the list; just a few for starters. There is a 2-way narrative despite what detractors say.
Look at pantheraresources.com
4 page document
Hi MH01 - quite agree about your comment about doubling. That's why I have suggested a modest increase in Reserves from 2.9m oz gold equivalent at 3 March 2022 to 4.0m oz - an increase of 38%.
This is consistent with Shaun Day's 43% CAGR comment for the overall resource which would take us from 6.5m oz to some 9.5m - 10m oz oz gold equivalent. I am certainly not proposing a doubling at this stage when Newcrest report on 11 August.
Drilling cut off at Feb 2021 for PFS dated 12 October 2021: 138,504m for 153 holes drilled as at 28 January 2021.
Drilling cut off December 2021 for updated MRE 3 March 2022: 226,492m drilled for 272 holes
Drilling cut off for the to be updated MRE 11 August 2023: Not known yet. As at 27 April 2023, 298,428m had been drilled for 335 holes. An increase of 23% in holes drilled and 32% in metres drilled since the last update.
Thought for the weekend. I believe 4m oz of Reserves is within reach at the next update on 11 August. Just had a look back through the data in the March 2022 RNS.
Starting point for Reserves - 2.9m oz gold equivalent
At that time there were a total of 3.8m oz in the Indicated category, of which 2.9m oz equivalent had been taken to Reserves. That leaves some 0.9m oz equivalent yet to be converted. Given the cut off date was December 2021 there is a reasonable expectation that 86% of that 0.9m oz, using Shaun's conversion rate, will find its way to reserves also - say 0.8m oz equivalent addition.
Now comes the tricky bit - we are expecting the next MRE in August to be around 10m oz gold equivalent, having risen from the current 6.5m oz equivalent.
Drilling has taken place for 18 months since the last MRE. So we just need a very small contribution of around 0.3m oz from that 3.5m oz growth to go into Reserves. That does not seem undemanding, particularly when we had 0.4m oz Indicated resource equivalent in the Northern Breccia, none of which had then been taken to Reserves. All of the Reserves have so far come from the South East Crescent.
The mining plan may well just cover the SE Crescent but the Reserve should include all up to date data one would hope given the time that has elapsed since December 2021.
PS. Just concentrated on Reserves here, not the overall MRE of 6.5m oz gold equivalent.
Yes, I have listened twice now. A quiet confidence exudes..
Hi Mickey - admire your perseverance
100% correct Corrado - great analogy!
Hmmmmm let me see - is that the one making an announcement tomorrow with a rebalance date of 16 June?
Hi Bamps - in terms of the reserves do you expect to see any change from the statement accompanying the 3 March 2022 MRE update relating to NSR: "Ore Reserves are reported above a cut-off of A$95 NSR/t and reported within mining shapes based on a sub-level open stoping mining method. All reported metal was derived from the South East Crescent Zone only".
cheers l-a
The RNS of 30 November 2020 does not say anything about the first or last right of refusal in the event that either Greatland or Newcrest do not wish to proceed to mine.
If Greatland want to pursue but Newcrest don't the RNS gives Greatland the option to purchase at fair market value.
I am not aware of any formal RNS update unless some folk have a link. Thanks.
IMI has joined FTSE100
Plode - just for balance the gold futures for August 2023 contract are up 4 points
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/gold-streaming-chart
Loftmonkey - I doubt very much that Greatland themselves feel at all smug. All they need to do is keep doing what they do best - exploration and development. The results will then take care of themselves. All the rest is just noise and irrelevant sound bites.
Hi Archways - good to hear from you and my fingers are crossed that you are able to see this setback too.
All the best
l-a
The other point to note is that Greatland is at a completely different point of the business evolution cycle. It has gone through most of the funding hurdles now, to the point where it will be ready to go into production next year. EEE on the other hand will need various amounts of funding to bring it to the same point. A bit like comparing apples and pears really.
7% of GGP (assuming price of 7.7p at close which is where it was trading at 4.30pm) adds around £22m to its market value . So I think Dawn_Shay has masterminded a bit of an own goal there when comparing to EEE.
Oj17 - that is the profit figure, not revenue
Plode - your economics theory is correct; when interest rates rise then gold tends to be less favourable. So it's just as well Greatland has a very low AISC ($743/oz according to the last Newcrest financial assumption) compared to the price of gold (latest price around $1,950/oz). That's around $1,200/oz profit on each ounce Greatland will be selling some time next year.
Now even on a ridiculously and embarrassingly out of date MRE of 6.5m oz gold equivalent, amounting to 2.9m oz in Reserves for a 10 year projected mining plan Greatland will be making some $87m each year for its 30% share.
We are of course waiting for the ridiculously and embarrassingly late Feasibility Study to be released from the very firm clutches of Newcrest (or Newmont, who knows) setting out the results of their value enhancing options beyond the 2.9m oz Reserve plan already in place. So the annual profit figures will be even more eye-watering when they are released.
The other point to note is that interest rates are near to peaking already so when Greatland start producing next year interest rates will once again be on a downward trend, and hence the gold price is likely to be in their favour. Sounds like a perfect scenario to me.