Member Info for lebugue-addick

StarB - we already know Greatland will be pushing for the future potential of Havieron to be recognised in the FMV as they have told me in an email which I shared with this board. It will be interesting to see whether than translates into the cash payment agreed by mid Feb or whether that is something to be built into future settlements as the Havieron potential becomes fully known we await with interest.

13.6-14p currently. LSE way behind on their updates

Okay. It was Australia Day ie Bank hol today ( Wednesday)

merc - falling off my chair if the add ons come to £10 per ounce when the shared profit element is at least $300 per ounce because of the ultra low AISC. Beware the credibility gap. The £50m and £10 per ounce add ons would mean a total breakdown in the relationship between GGP and Newcrest and that ain't happening.

merc - my email exchanges with Greatland on 13 January confirm they will be taking future events into account when arriving at their FMV.

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"As you correctly point out, the timing of the fair market valuation process falls at a time when several unknown factors still exist about Havieron. In fact this would be the case for years to come as there would be a constant amount of unknowns.

Greatland will use all known information parameters, coupled with our understanding and analysis about the future potential of Havieron, validated by independent experts, where possible to put forward our assessment of fair valuation during this process".

mercedesman - can you remind me who said "Dont poke the bear with £50m predictions lmao" @18.24 on 13 Jan

JJN - the current SP is irrelevant when calculating the 5%

Fair point Matty - they have 30 business days to exercise their option following agreement or determination of the fair market value option exercise price

Pooroldman - Newcrest have stated they are exercising their option to take up the 5% so the process is now irreversible - it will go ahead.

In that sense Newcrest do not have "the upper hand" as you call it. An adjudication process will be put in train if the 2 parties cannot agree a fair value.

Agreeing the price of gold to determine the 5% FMV will be a key consideration for NCM and GGP. Given that Newcrest have now substantially reined back their hedging activity it is reasonable for Greatland to build almost all the full current realised price of gold (currently around US $1,845) into their assessments without being challenged imo.

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Extract from Newcrest's Annual Report to 30 June 2021, released October:

Telfer Gold Hedging

In the year to 30 June 2021 no new hedging in relation to Telfer was undertaken by Newcrest in the current period.
The total outstanding volume and prices of gold hedged for future years at Telfer and in total for Newcrest are:
30 June 2022 .......................204,615oz...............................AUD 1,902 (US $1,358)
30 June 2023....................... 137,919oz............................... AUD 1,942 (US $1,387)

Telfer is a large scale, low grade mine and its profitability and cash flow are sensitive to the realised Australian dollar gold price. Hedging instruments in the form of Australian dollar gold forward contracts were put in place in 2016 to 2018 to secure margins on a portion of future planned production to June 2023, to support investment in cutbacks and mine development.

The current period included 216,639 ounces of Telfer gold sales hedged at an average price of A$1,864 per ounce, representing a net revenue loss of $99 million for the current period. At 30 June 2021, based on gold forward curves, the unrealised mark-to-market loss of the remaining hedges was $110 million.

Approximately 90% of Newcrest’s gold sales in the period were unhedged and therefore benefitted from the strong gold prices in the period.

Newcrest’s decision in the prior period to cease its program of hedging the impacts of copper and gold price movements during the quotational period resulted in a net fair value gain in other income in the current period of $124 million, driven by the increase in gold and copper prices in the current period.

we're just lucky the share isn't being played with! We know that because biggles and p helps stephen beeetham says so

MH01 - couldn't agree more. Zoros routinely posts his road map of upcoming events. Maybe it's time for another on Friday morning after the drilling results?

Come on everyone let's not get down, this is just a short term Russia/Ukraine-led dip. Look at what we've got with more drilling results to come Thursday night.

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In December 2020, Newcrest announced its initial Inferred Mineral Resource estimate for Havieron of 52Mt @ 2.0g/t Au and 0.31 Cu for 3.4Moz Au and 160kt Cu. Mineralisation remains open in multiple directions outside of the initial Inferred Mineral Resource, which indicates the possibility that the resource could continue to grow over time with additional planned drilling activity.

In June 2021, Newcrest announced a number of new high grade extensions to the South East Crescent zone, located outside of the initial Inferred Mineral Resource estimate. These drilling results continue to support the potential for incremental resource extensions.

It is clear that this JV is a marriage made in heaven as far as Newcrest is concerned which s great for GGP as well. Newcrest could have waited until December 2022 to get hold of the extra 5% but they are pressing ahead at speed to act now as they know Telfer is just ticking over for the next 2 years.

Extract from Newcrest annual report, October 2021:

In August 2021, we announced that we will proceed with the West Dome Stage 5 cutback, which underpins the continuity of operations at Telfer for at least the next two years2. With the excellent progress we are making at the nearby Havieron project, our objective is to continue utilising the Telfer plant without interruption as we look to introduce Havieron and other new potential feed sources in the future".

This is great news for GGP imo.

cjm - JPM not in the top 10 holdings

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/NEWCREST-MINING-LIMITED-6491457/company/

Trippytaka - JPM may have only just reached the 0.5% threshold which is the cut off for making a "public" notification. Before that only a private notification needed to be made ie one that we don't get to see ordinarily I imagine.

So it looks like JPM have acted properly on the notification front. As for the merits of shorting in general theme, well that's another matter.

trippytaka @ 09.03 - for clarification on the short selling rules:

What are the UK short selling notification thresholds?
A private share notification must be made when the net short position in shares reaches 0.1% of the issued share capital of the company, and again at each 0.1% threshold thereafter. This applies to both 0.1% increase and decrease of the position, including when the position drops below 0.1%.

When the position reaches 0.5%, a public notification must be made. A public notification must be made again at each 0.1% threshold above 0.5%.

Once a public disclosure has been made, it can be viewed on the “short position daily update” published on the FCA website.

https://funds-axis.com/uk-0-1-short-selling-notification-threshold-here-to-stay/

ProfQ - the October GGP presentation shows PFS AISC $643/oz. Link below:

https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/GGP-Growth-Update-Final.pdf

zoros - "GGP is worth a MAXIMUM of 15p ALL DAY LONG with their current finding".

Why only now are you changing your SP opinion (all your previous posts like all other BB members are now unavailable from LSE temporarily)? Why do you not acknowledge that the MRE is only based on drilling results up to October 2020 and therefore a significant upgrade to Havieron is awaited? Why no reference to the work done in the meantime by Bamps when he refers to 900mt of ore? Why no reference to the "fraction of a fraction" SD comment in PFS etc etc. I do not understand your change of sentiment which of course you are entitled to do, without having to explain to me or anyone else.

Doggy - type in to google: "is cryptocurrency here to stay" and see what results you get. Sorry for o/t but Doggy keeps plugging it