Member Info for Leapfroggy

I am sticking to my estimate of a minimum SP of 30p on the Croda launch. I share Elrico’s view that there is most likely to either be an exclusivity agreement/ restrictions on sales

or a Croda buy out/ substantial equity holding. It’s puzzling to know why Croda ever allowed SBTX to buy the lysate at cost and then sell it , given at the outset they had all the bargaining power. I suspect that Croda/SBTX have already some form of agreement in place as they already know what the product efficacy is and what the demand will be. As SA has often said, SBTX have no costs involved in production, marketing and distribution so they can come to a mutually agreeable deal with Croda. I don’t think the market understands that this situation for a small company like SBTX is unparalleled.

£1.56m in the bank, a profitable investment for the new investors, only a 3.5% drop in the share price, Croda launch pending, next purchase lined up- what’s not too like!

I agree. Obvious decision would be to let the CFO go and replace with a commercial manager. Let’s face it the bonds have been a disaster for the share price, yet no one has taken responsibility. More problematic issue is to replace the current chair and Exec Directors. Maybe only option is to vote them out at the next AGM.

It is actually. The ‘rule of 30’ states that a study of 30 or more is likely to be statistically significant. L’Oreals Retinol Night Serum had a study of 49.

Is it normal for a bank providing finance to also short that companies stock?

Maybe companies buying the lysate are now considering the amount that they need to buy/secure over the coming year and their marketing budget. I am presuming it’s this that is beginning to leak.

And even then, no plans announced to sell the lysate ourselves or through a partner. Axisbiotix hyped to hell but one of the worst product launches in history and they still believe a company will make a distribution offer when my local shop sells more pints of milk each month!

SP has fallen from 60p - 85% in three years but worry not! CFO is incentivised with massive bonus if the SP reaches 50p!

About time we had a new set of Directors to reflect the need to take our products to the market. Now we have an agency to develop our online presence, I fail to see why we need Danielle Bekker whose CV looks pretty lightweight and failed to create sales for Axisbiotix.

Financing for smaller companies is broken both on aim and the main market. Massive dilutions are common after every fundraise whilst valuations on Aim have fallen 50% since 2021. “When the tide falls all boats sink.” Pension fund holdings have fallen from 47 to 4% of the stock market. URAH’s fundraising at around the SP to cover imminent production is why I am now only holding this share and SBTX (all costs of development, production and marketing for their skincare product met by an international company- Croda).

It’s ironic that I subscribed to this web site recently and after reading this article and considering opinion on the future of UK stocks (which pension funds have stopped investing in) and the future for Aim (down 50% since 2021) and the near impossibility of funding I have sold up most of my Aim holdings. When the overall direction is overwhelmingly down, it doesn’t make sense to me to continue trading on Aim. That there have only been 10 AIM IPOs so far this year tells me the market is broken. It costs around £200k in RNS etc just to stay on Aim. I’m still holding on SBTX (but not adding) and URAH (main market and recently raised twice at around the SP).

Quite right. We should not be spending money developing new scientific discoveries but monetarising our existing science and proving up what we have. The Dermatonics founder has said that the key to past and future growth is the scientific evidence behind the product. This is the reason Modi are investing heavily in marketing our products. We are better off investing in product development through a leading university rather than paying for a Scientific Officer.

My concern when I looked at this company in the past was that their margins were too low to make good profits and their costs would face inflationary pressures. This is now being addressed with the same financial year out turn but better margins.

Looks like our first new Institutional buyer this morning with a £65k purchase. Interesting that they were willing to pay a premium. Any single purchase of 30k+ can expect to drive SP by 10-20% every time. To put this in context, another five similar purchases could double the SP. Glad I bought another 4k first thing this morning!

Fortunately I bought back in at 7-8p it still have an average of 18p. What I have noticed is a net daily buy or sell of less than +£5k can move the SP by +5%. Today there was a net £20k in buys with an SP increase of 27%. Aim is often about momentum as this excites retail investors who often get hooked and often get caught out as they are slow to sell when the SP falls with some often disastrously averaging down. SBTX doesn’t have some speculative drill or mine but a solid deal which should generate £1m+ in profit (not revenue!). What’s that worth, maybe a minimum of +30p. It’s really about whether the Sederma deal generates much greater income, alongside whatever SBTX can sell themselves. Another £1m in income means a good annual profit, leverage to make cost effective take overs and a good development budget. I’ve bought £30k worth in a month and see the SP in the 40-80p range by year end. That’s my top slice target!

Though it might have been them that sold 150,000 on opening at an 8.51 average. Obviously they stopped selling as the SP rose.

Interestingly on the Fidelity site, there is a morning star Fair Value indicator. This takes account of the Dermatonics purchase and is 16.63p

It was very good to hear that the Croda deal does allow the company to produce own label goods, hence the second acquisition is for a wholesaler. I would expect a product to be also sold through Dermatonics as this fits with their ‘science based’ approach.

Likewise. I bought 43,000 this morning before the presentation. There was a clear explanation as to the different stages in the Sederma development and confirmation from them that they will complete this (this year) in five years rather than the norm of seven. Also indicates how difficult it will be for a competitor to enter the market.

No SP target set but SA reinforces that he and MA are incentivised to hit their 80 and 50p targets. Also comments that they intend to buy more shares but are prevented from doing so whilst the current acquisition is ongoing.