Member Info for LeaGreen

"for the Patrick Kabwe quote - can you point us to where you found that please, I would like to read the whole article and the context for it."

Please see my post at 16.38 on 6th April (p4 on here) and you're right it is a lengthy, 8 pages, interview and whoever posted that piece from the "The Respondent" would be doing a good turn if he/she could re-post the link.

Yeah, tracking back, $25m raised for two wells in July 2016 yet two years later in July18 a farm out of 50% announced at what amounted to a forced sale price with a big disappointment at the NT-2 result with, as I recall, the drilling mud problem ascribed to a drilling crew failure though as I also seem to recall there were questions raised over the employment of Caroil-6, a rig manufactured in 1979 and refurbished in 2004.

As for timing, as well as Mr Kabwe's "six months minimum" the firing of the placing of a contract gun won't trigger the start of pipelaying given what will have to precede the start of that work - placing of order and manufacture of c2,000 pipes with linings of a specification appropriate to Ntorya product, the surveying and marking out of the line of the pipeline, the construction of a crew and equipment compound, camp and hardstanding and the shipping (presumably from China) of pipes and heavy equipment . As for a slot in the contractor's schedule, I would guess that as the tender was described as "restrictive" that has been factored in. One way or another though, were Mr Ladboke be running a book my money would be on a pipeline completion comfortably into 2026.

As for cost of drilling CH-1, memory is telling me that NT-1 cost $8m back in 2012 but I certainly stand to be corrected on that.

"Patrick Kabwe, TPDC Senior Geologist and Project Manager indicated that the pipeline work would be "expected to take a minimum of six months to be completed"

As I recall, the Ntorya topography has been described in the past as "hilly" so not exactly ideal terrain for pipeline laying especially if hilly also means rocky.

With regard to the cost of drilling CH-1, around 2016 didn't $25m get raised to drill two wells, NT-2 and what was then referred to as NT-3? NT-2 did get drilled and ballsed up but apparently insufficient cash was left to drill NT-3. Perhaps others can fill in what did happen to whatever did remain of the $25m but as I recall it just appeared to evaporate.

Taking Alcapone1's link got a "Page not found" but meanwhile is it known how this "Citizen" piece proceeded?

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/business/mtwara-s-gas-dreams-fizzle-as-cashew-nuts-farming-revives-4994860

Thanks for that and wouldn't disagree re Mr Makembe's credibility

As far as the TPDC tender is concerned , this gives some idea of the scale and nature of pipeline laying:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ih2aG4ybOIA

35km translated into real money is c 22 miles, or put another way, the rough equivalent of a 45 minute non city car journey which gives some idea of the scale of the job. Even compiling the tender will be a huge task given the number of sub contractors there'll be and the scale of logistics with the manufacturing and then the shipping of 2,000 + 14" pipes plus all the heavy pipelaying equipment to Mtwara and then their onward transport upcountry. Then, of course, there'll be the planning for the accommodation and welfare of the workforce along with site security etc.

Given that the contract is likely to have a value at the thick end of $100m (other guestimates welcome) it is likely to be pored over by multiple Tanzanian government ministries and while it's unlikely to be cash upfront and much more likely to be wholly or substantially paid for by tolling, it's still a huge commitment for TPDC and Tanzania and recalling how long it took for the ever "imminent" Development Licence to be actually issued, it seems most unlikely that news of the issue of the EPC contact will meet any reasonable definition of "shortly."

As for the job itself, on or around 27/02/25 someone did post a piece from "The Respondent" (sorry, I did a print off but omitted to save a link) which featured a Q&A with Patrick Kabwe, TPDC Senior Geologist and Project Manager in which he indicated that the work would be "expected to take a minimum of six months to be completed"

Tell us more please, who Wilson Falco Makembe - not all of us are young enough to be on Linkedin!

In October, wasn't it APT who put out an invite for Expressions of Interest in site clearance and preparation work in anticipation of the pipeline and drilling and workover activity on NT-1, NT-2 and CH-1/

Is Hussein Boffu, Stockcheque and is Stockcheque, Hussein Boffu?

The drumbeat refrain down the years has been "Tanzania is desperate for gas" with that being rarely born out in practice and while much is made of "only 35% of the population has access to electricity" the reality is that most of the other 65% couldn't afford to pay even were it to be available. Tanzania is a grindingly poor country (hardly surprising given it's socialist by its constitution) and only in recent years has it passed the $1,000 per capita income threshold and is even now at only $1,234. Additionally, Tanzania finances will have been badly hit by the rocketing cost of imported grain as a result of the Ukraine affair so funding for the pipeline might be under question.

Clearly, the coming on stream of the Julius Nyerere Dam must affect gas demand calculations and while new gas plants might still be planned, worth bearing mind that the gas requirement for the Sumitomo constructed Kinyerezi II plant was put at only 40mmcfd.

If the absence of any update is due to a pause being triggered while electricity demand and supply is deliberated then it would seem likely to be a lengthy one.

"Actually the TPDC originally told us that it would be ready for production by the end of Q1 and ARA were meant to be helping the TPDC get that to completion but we haven't had any explanation for the delay"

How much of a surprise would it be were TPDC were to announce a pause while the government undertook an analysis of projected energy supply and demand over the next decade?

"In the initial phases of production, the Ntorya-2 well will be connected to the pipeline through a mobile well test facility and be put into an extended well test for perhaps a period of a year. The gas produced during this period will be fed into the pipeline and transmitted to the Madimba Gas Plant."

Have TPDC yet placed the the contract for construction of the pipeline or, for that matter, even put out a tender?

Some "Global GAS Report 2024" training for those so minded:

https://www.igu.org/resources/global-gas-report-2024-edition/

I take your point Roger Jolly, thanks for the response and I hope your analysis is correct and that the drill will be within the hoped for time frame.

Dated 25th July 2024 - "ARA Petroleum Tanzania (APT) has begun the process of land acquisition and compensation for its forthcoming Ntorya Gas Field Development Project. This initiative involves acquiring plots for the Chikumbi-1 well and the Upstream Processing Facilities, as well as expanding the previously acquired NT-3 site to accommodate the construction of a camp and storage yard"

"BEGUN the process of land acquisition" - given the pace at which anything moves in Tanzania, how does that square with drilling CH-1 in late '24 or even in H1 of 2025?

If it's anyone like Barclays, to vote requires telephoning their Corporate Actions team and instructing them over the phone.

Https://www.perenco.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Five-well-drilling-campaign-on-Kita-Eden-field-Cameroon.pdf

And the man who made the "Most stupid move ever" has looted the company and its shareholders ever since.

For comparison:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/helium-discovered-minnesota-us-supplies-dwindle

Considering that it's AGS also doing the overdue Ntorya seismic processing and interpretation, surprising that this from the Kiliwani Update has caused so little concern:

"The third party contractor responsible for the seismic program has suspended operations. As a result, PAET has issued a breach of contract notice to the contractor. The contractor has failed to remedy the breach under its agreement with PAET. The Company has therefore terminated the contract on October 25, 2023."

Are AGS still in operation even? Their website is still up though it does not appear to have been updated since 2018.

As for this from the latest RNS:

" We will provide a further update to the market on the progress of the other Ruvuma workstreams in due course."

Isn't "in due course" small oilie speak for "not any time soon"?

Many thanks for taking the trouble Hamz74 look forward to your notes of the meeting

Thanks chaps and the tracks just emphasize how comprehensive 3D seismic is.

I freely admit to being pretty crap at visual interpretation and map reading but looking at scales, am drawing conclusion that the coverage hasn't gone so far west as to take in anything significant of Namisange. Looking at its size in outline, though, it will merit a major survey down the line and especially if Chikumbi hits the spot.