Member Info for LeaGreen

" It'll be a bidding war between other big named companies. " and more than likely for ARA/APT who are in industry scales absolute minnows with owt like the big step to 8 tcf being "proved up" warranting the involvement of , if not a major then someone getting on there and almost certainly Asian to get hold of the operatorship.

That too will be a huge propellant for AEX and its SP especially if/when the sale price leaks out

But wasn't the SP supposed to soar, not fall?

just a reminder and now more relevant than ever:

https://dailynews.co.tz/tanzanian-indonesian-firms-sign-1-4bn-deal-to-enhance-fertilizers-production/

the first five paras re gop domestic politics can be ignored:

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/how-iran-is-setting-up-the-starvation-of-the-worlds-poorest-people/

"according to a united nations report, in 2024, the countries that most relied on fertilizers imported by sea and originating from the persian gulf region included sudan, sri lanka, australia, tanzania, somalia, ****stan, thailand, kenya, and new zealand."

Could anyone tell me please, in the pic, who is the tall guy in the glasses?

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2025/11/29/one-of-africas-most-stable-states-in-turmoil-why-it-matters/

"It is being called “Tanzania’s Tiananmen Square”. And for good reason. "

Making the Chinese feel right at home

Https://www.thetimes.com/world/africa/article/protests-unrest-tanzania-elections-z760nq7g9

"Even before the election, Hassan, a grandmother in her sixties, was seen by analysts as vulnerable to dissent from elements of the military and allies of her iron-fisted predecessor, John Magufuli, since taking power after his death in 2021."

What would be especially unwelcome is a return of the Magufuli faction of the CCM.

Tanzania under its constitution is a socialist country with Nyerereism still hankered after in sections of the ruling party.

27th August: "APT has informed Aminex that it will be requesting expressions of interest from the relevant service contractors next week." (NB "Expressions of interest" only)

6th October: · "the rig tender process for the drilling of CH-1 and workover of NT-1 is ongoing"

At every stage the CH-1 tender is a big time consuming deal and with no tender even issued at this stage, a reasonable bet would be no rig contract this side of 2026.

There is also the matter of wellhead equipment that APT placed a Tanzanian press ad for inviting again only "expressions of interest" and unless I've missed summat there's been no further news on those highly specialised items of equipment.

Would be interesting to know the lead times on such items - not exactly the sort of equipment you'd buy on 48hr delivery on ebay.

Thanks for that link bullfrog, I'd missed that important bit on first reading.

Back on 12th July, I posted in response to someone writing about the scale of the asset :

'""If CH-1 confirms stacked pay and Ntorya’s recoverable gas increases toward 6–7 TCF"

With regard to additional destinations for Ntorya gas at those levels, what is surprising given the c35km proximity to the coast is that what never seems to get raised as a possibility is LNG and more specifically FLNG given the reluctance there would be to go for onshore LNG given after what happened to Total in northern Mozambique.'

LNG is expensive and even "small" LNG like 1.5mta will be a billion plus and inevitably political risk will loom large in the considerations of international lenders and in the case of Mtwara that will be at least two fold - cross border terrorism bearing in mind that Total were obliged to withdraw for an extended period from northern Mozambique and the domestic politics of Tanzania given the risk of another Magufuli coming to power. As lenders' political advisers will point out, Tanzania is by its constitution a socialist country and it is a democracy in name only especially bearing in mind what happened in Zanzibar in the 2015 General Election.

One of the primary justifications for FLNG as a technology is as a hedge to host country political risk and for that reason, it would be no surprise if that was the route pursued and I've long believed that the proximity of the PSA to the coast was an understated major plus for the asset.

Incidentally, just as smaller scale onshore LNG is now practicable so is FLNG:

Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/lng-africa/483412/gabon-perenco-fid-lng/

I wonder who the unnamed Asians (presumably Chinese) are in this pic: https://mtwaralng.com/creative-founders/

Am struggling to find the mtwaralng.com page which speaks of Ntorya as a/the primary gas source - could some kind soul please point me in the right direction? Thank you

"TPDC didn't place the drilling tender" - sorry, should, of course have read "pipeline tender"

"the Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) has participated in a comprehensive inspection and testing exercise of a state-of-the-art gas drilling rig in Tianjin, China."

Which brings back to mind that the Caroil drill used for NT-2 (Caroil-6?) had been manufactured in 1979 so another Caroil drill for CH-1 would not be accompanied by good vibes.

Incidentally with regard to the reliability of owt said by Ambrose and bearing in mind that TPDC didn't place the drilling tender till October, this is what he told Pack of Cards at the AGM in 2024:

"When I spoke to Robert Ambrose I was told the rig is selected and contracts are being executed and timings are for Q4 drilling."

The generosity of the AGM attendees in taking the time and trouble to provide such comprehensive reports for the rest of us is greatly appreciated. Many thanks to you all!

On destinations for the Ntorya gas, not to forget:

https://thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/tanzania-s-1-2-billion-fertiliser-deal-promises-to-end-imports-4709776

From memory this plant would be of a similar output to that of the doomed Ferrostaal project which, if I recall correctly, was scheduled to require 70mm cfd.

And from the RNS - "Gas from the first phase of development will be staying in Tanzania" implicit here is Ntorya gas for export whether that be to neighbouring countries but certainly at anything like 3 TCF, Big Boy LNG certainly comes into focus, whether that be gas piped c 70m up to Lindi to help defray the very expensive offshore gas with the much lower cost product from Ntorya at the long , long delayed mega LNG plant or piped the 35 km to the coast to an offshore FLNG vessel. The very large plus of Ntorya's proximity to Tanzania's Asia facing coast often seems to be discounted.

"If CH-1 confirms stacked pay and Ntorya’s recoverable gas increases toward 6–7 TCF"

With regard to additional destinations for Ntorya gas at those levels, what is surprising given the c35km proximity to the coast is that what never seems to get raised as a possibility is LNG and more specifically FLNG given the reluctance there would be to go for onshore LNG given after what happened to Total in northern Mozambique.

Also given the very high costs attaching to Shell etc mega deep water offshore LNG project especially when compared with Ntorya's onshore costing, it would not be surprising, depending on gas compatibility, if some years down the line a c70m pipeline link to Lindi didn't appear as a possibility

"I still predict a buyout of Aminex in a year or 2 and i believe the sum paid will be very handsome."

As ARA themselves are in industry terms just a minnow, if CH-1 does come good and that 8tcf does get some credibility, isn't it at least as likely that the target for acquisition is ARA themselves. Prospects of 8tcf (and even 16tcf as a possibility) is of a size that deserves one of the real big boys especially given lower onshore development costs and that it's on the Asia facing side of Africa.

Such a takeout of ARA would have a significantly beneficial effect on the perception of the asset and therefore on the tadpole JVP partner, Aminex, and its share price.

StockCheque, do you, perhaps, have a link to the full SPEK piece as I can't find it on their website. Would be grateful if you could so provide.

"Go further back — we hit 7.9p in 2017 on NT-2 alone, without a licence, without a gas sales agreement, and without a path to market"

And what were the number of shares then and what are the number of shares now?

If and when Turkey's gas gets developed it will likely be destined for international markets and be paid for in dollars while on the other hand ......................

Aha! It was Sambo12 on 27th Feb (p26):

Https://www.therespondent.co.tz/2024/09/insights-from-tpdc-senior-geologist.html

Not sure if you’ve read this Crusty. That’s why I’m assuming 6 months..

Yes I am confident of 5p plus on a good result with CH1 and no reason we can’t retest the 2017 high !