Member Info for LayLadyLay

willec, it's not the FT making that prediction. They report broker ratings. The only broker covering CERP is the house broker VSA.

Big Mike Joseph says he hasn't sold a single share. He also says it looks like he will soon be the largest remaining share holder.

bamps - " Prd will pay Cerp $4.2m!"

That is somewhat misleading and rampers have regularly quoted this as if it's a sure thing ever since the acquisition of Steeldrum in 2018. Where are Predator going to fund US$4.2m? Even if the transaction was ever executed and CERP received that amount, you have forgotten to mention, as all rampers do, the obligation that CERP has to issue an additional 16,920,083 to the sellers of Steeldrum.

The consideration for the purchase of Steeldrum is the issuance to the Sellers of 92,743,775 shares in Columbus (the "Base Consideration Shares").

Columbus may also pay deferred consideration to the Sellers, as follows:

1. 16,422,434 shares in Columbus following the re-issuance of the Cory Moruga E&P Licence and 16,422,434 Shares following either a positive final investment decision being made to develop the Cory Moruga field or a sale to a third party (the "Cory Moruga Shares"); and

2. 16,920,083 shares in Columbus in the event the Innis-Trinity field is sold to a third party for no less than US$4,200,000 (the "Innis Trinity Shares")

This is a carrot that is often waved about as if it's a done deal. Personally I have my doubts it will ever take place.

Some of you think, or are hoping, that Saffron is a successful drill and is currently undertaking flow tests. If true his would possibly explain the uncanny silence although it would seem usual for a successful well to be announced to investors who are known to be desperate for an update even if flow tests have not yet been completed.

Let's assume for a moment that the well is commercial and producing good quantities of oil. If that were the case, where is the oil going as there is no known infrastructure at the wellhead. If significant quantities of oil are being take away by tanker to another location, how is this being achieved without anyone seemingly knowing?

I'm sure that some of you will come up with fanciful explanations but something doesn't feel right about the lack of information, particularly as the time allotted for this drill has been far exceeded.

Got sad news today. After 7 years of medical training, my good friend has been struck off after 1 minor indiscretion.
He slept with 1 of his patients & now can no longer work in the job he loves.
What a waste of time, training & money.
A genuinely nice guy, and a brilliant vet.

Police in Lagos, Nigeria have just broken into the flat of a man who had died. They found 27 billion pounds stashed in a box. On
checking his computer they discovered he has been trying to give it away for the last 15 years, but nobody was replying to his emails.

There have been numerous landslips along the Southern Main Road in the Cedros/ Fullarton area, two of which have threatened the stability of the road.

Cedros councillor Shankar Teelucksingh, in a telephone interview yesterday, said remedial work by the Ministry of Works were unsuccessful because of increased rainfall in the area.“The landslips developed after the heavy rainfall. The Ministry of Works tried to do some shoring-up works on Monday (December 23), but then there was more rainfall and the whole thing end up collapsing.

"But they are addressing the situation at this point in time.”The area was largely spared the floods which inundated parts of south Trinidad in mid-December.

But Teelucksingh said the water supply was also reduced, as a 20-inch main supplying the Chatham plant was affected by the landslips.He said ministry officials were seen on site trying to do remedial work and taking measurements on the Boxing Day holiday.“The road is still passable," he said, "but quarter of the up lane has given way and this is at the 96km mark.”“Up to yesterday, Ministry of Works personnel were on site, taking some measurements to get the contractor to perform remedial work but probably due to the holiday they didn’t mobilise as yet.”He said no households had been marooned by the landslips.“We are waiting to see by Monday December 30 what sort of repairs will start.

"When we had the flooding all over the country, we didn’t experience those things, but what we experienced were some landslides.”Teelucksingh was grateful that the Works Ministry was trying to solve the problem.

https://newsday.co.tt/2019/12/27/cedros-councillor-hopeful-roadworks-will-start-monday/

in4cedros - call me a sceptic but I don't rely on the presentations in the way that you clearly do.

I am only interested in regulatory news. The results from Saffron will be released eventually and then we can see whether all the hype has been worthwhile. I do find it rather odd that LK made two quick drawdowns from Lind and we could all speculate on why he did that. Surely, if Saffron is a success there would have been no need to make the second drawdown before results are known as a successful drill would undoubtedly have a positive impact on both SP and MC. That he did so has me wondering if all is not well (no pun intended) and could the funds be needed to keep the light on while the company seeks to find a way forward? All the recent signs have suggested that CERP is not cash rich and I wonder if we are witnessing a close encounter with similar circumstances that blighted the prospects of LGO. I truly hope that results are in line with expectations and I await confirmation with eager anticipation.

Bamps - "There hasn't been a drill yet that has encountered these zones under the SWP but one drill I believe did get stuck about 12,000' down"

I think you could be referring the exploration well drilled by Apex in the Cedros Peninsula. This well showed a good development of cruse sands which were unfortunately watered. It was abandoned in lower cruse clay at a depth of 12,872 feet.

Harel - "The swp is an onshore drill but its an island so its equivalent to offshore drill."

In4cedros will love you for saying that Harel but it's as true as his assertion that because you can see the offshore rigs through binoculars it follows that there must be similar reservoirs beneath the feet of the observer. I beg to differ and we are all entitled to our own opinion. I doubt that BHP would be spending mega bucks drilling off the east coast of Trinidad if they could extract similar quantities of oil onshore.

This is what a research team from the University of Texas had to say about the differences between onshore and offshore reservoirs.

"From a depositional systems perspective, reservoirs in the Cruse are superficially similar to reservoirs in the more prolific offshore settings. However, the Cruse Formation records a more fluvially influenced, strongly progradational evolution across an open, unstructured shelf platform whereas offshore Columbus Basin reservoirs exhibit a much more wave influenced, aggradational architecture, in a growth-fault dominated shelf setting. This results in significant differences in reservoir properties. Cruse reservoirs are much thinner and laterally more extensive than stacked, thicker but laterally confined (to growth compartments) offshore equivalents, resulting in a much higher hydrocarbon yield per unit area in the latter. The growth structures of the latter also provide more abundant traps. "

It's only results that will affect the sp, positively or negatively. The ramping that goes on here is pointless.

New technology has been touted for years as a means to unlock potential. I'm still to be convinced.

"The Goudron Field is somewhat iconic in Trinidad. It had about 150 wells drilled between about 1927 and 1990. Through new drilling technology, LGO has been able to reuse several of these: at the moment, they’re producing about 60 to 70 of the old wells in total. Last year, they drilled 8 new wells in the field. They’re new not only because they’re in parts of the reservoir which had previously not been drained, but also because the technology of drilling has moved on substantially and so they’re drilling wells which perform far better than the old wells ever could have done."

https://www.tsbreview.com/lgo-energy-plc-delivering-growth/

Bamps "the spt tax is dampening enthusiasm for Goudron production."

That gives the false impression that spt only applies to Goudron.

I was simply making a point in4cedros, not speculating on whether or not Saffron will be commercial. I'm sure many would be delighted with 6p but that would still fall well short of what the long term spiked need to recoup accrued losses.

I have to say it was interesting to see your take on why Tranche 2 was drawn down so quickly, posted in your guise as arrynillson, " must admit I'm surprised the second tranche has been drawn so soon as it does suggest the drill has cost much more than was originally being talked about ( CERP had cash of around $800,000 and LK said it could be done without a Placing - admittedly he didn't specifically say what the cost would be and he has done it without a Placing!). Less optimistic observers can say LK is taking Tranche 2 now to avoid possible cash flow pressure if Saffron does not meet expectations as he may be concerned about the $25 million MC condition on T2 borrowing particularly if Schroders decide to unload more shares."

It's a pity you didn't choose to share those thoughts here.

Company has paid an up-front commitment fee of US$105,000 for Tranche 1 and Tranche 2. If the Company draws down on Tranche 3, a fee of US$52,500 will be payable. Apart from legal fees incurred to establish the Agreement, no other fees are payable.

For Tranche 1, the Funder has received 14,625,000 share options, which may be exercised within 60 months at a share price equal to 150% of the 20 day VWAP immediately prior to drawdown. For Tranche 1, the exercise price is 6.0p. For Tranche 2 and Tranche 3, additional options on similar terms and conditions would apply upon any drawdown.

Tranche 2 has been drawn down.

For Tranche 2, the Funder has received 16,861,207 share options, which may be exercised within 60 months at a share price equal to 150% of the 20 day VWAP immediately prior to drawdown. For Tranche 2, the exercise price would be approximately 5.1p).

Although the exercise price of issued options are higher than the current sp it should be noted that in the event of a good result from Saffron, yet to be reported, the options would likely place a cap on any potential rise in sp for a period of time.

SPT kicks in when oil prices exceed US$50 per barrel. Contrary to what LTID has said, it does not stop when oil prices reach US$61 per barrel. He/she is confusing this with 'the sweet spot for profits'.

SPT is payable for onshore oilfields in Trinidad at a rate of 18% at the end of each quarter as and when the sales price received during that period exceeded an average price of US$50.01 per barrel. The SPT calculation also takes account of allowable capex spent by the producer during that period, with deductions being applied in the SPT calculations accordingly (eg. 20% of capex spent during that quarter can be offset against the SPT amount due and any brought forward offsets from previous quarters can also be applied).

The "sweet spot" for profits depends on various factors, including the level of current and past allowable capex spend, as referred to above. Likewise, it can be difficult to confirm the oil price at which a company would be better-off above US$49.95 given capex offsets. However, as a general rule of thumb, an oil price received around US$61.00/barrel would be required to obtain the same level of profits from sales at US$49.95 if capex spend is zero for that period.

Someone (own up!) created a thread entitled T X P and most of the posts that have been deleted were replies on that thread, including in4cedros and my replies to him/her.

"Leo, as always, says just enough to let you believe whatever you want to. He knows that some of you will run with this and gradually the ramps will become more and more outrageous. "

And so it begins ;)

My main take from this is that the drill cost has probably increased from original estimates. Whether or not the end will justify the means we will only know when there is a definitive analysis of the results.

There's very little information in that RNS to suggest that this will be commercial. Leo, as always, says just enough to let you believe whatever you want to. He knows that some of you will run with this and gradually the ramps will become more and more outrageous. How many feet of oil pay was encountered? Long on suggestion and short on fact. I expect another long delay before further news.