View from the russian press15 Apr 2022 16:19
source https://bcs-express.ru/novosti-i-analitika/obval-aktsii-petropavlovska-chto-proiskhodit
Shares of Petropavlovsk in today's trading fall by 11%, at the moment the drawdown exceeded 20%. In total, over the past 2 days, the paper sank by more than 26%.
The driver for the collapse of the shares was the company's problems with doing business due to sanctions. Petropavlovsk is registered in the UK, therefore, as part of the country's sanctions against the Russian Federation, the company is prohibited from conducting transactions with Gazprombank, the largest creditor and buyer of 100% of the gold produced by Petropavlovsk.
In addition, due to the sanctions, the company faced additional risks from the Russian side as well - the law provides for criminal prosecution for individuals or legal entities in Russia who refuse to do business with counterparties due to sanctions from other countries. That is, the company is now between two fires, and compliance with sanctions automatically leads to a violation of the legislation of the Russian Federation.
The next negative point is that the company has limited cash reserves outside of Russia, which means that, within the framework of the current restrictions on the movement of capital, Petropavlovsk cannot pay interest on bonds, which will mean a technical default. The company notes that the bonds mature in November 2022 and the issue will be difficult to refinance.
Because of the noted problems, the company said that it was considering the possibility of selling the operating subsidiaries of Petropavlovsk, that is, the main production assets. In this case, the gold miner may cease its activities.
At the moment it is difficult to assess how serious the threat of default on the obligations of Petropavlovsk is. The problem could be resolved with the weakening of currency control in the Russian Federation and reaching agreements with Gazprombank, for example, within the framework of the assignment of rights to claim obligations, termination of the agreement on the sale of gold.
If we consider one of the worst scenarios, when an agreement fails, then the company may sell off its operating assets in Russia. Petropavlovsk is in a disadvantageous position here, so the sale may take place at a discount to conditionally fair levels.
The financial report of Petropavlovsk for 2021 has not been published, but based on the indicators for the first half of the year, the company's capital was $709.6 million, which corresponded to about 14.4 rubles. per share of Petropavlovsk at P/BV = 1x. This is a conditional benchmark of how much shareholders could receive in the liquidation of the company.
As a result, the prospects of Petropavlovsk now depend on negotiations with Gazprombank, the regulator's position on limiting foreign exchange flows. The company notes that it has engaged AlixPartners to help the board of directors explore possible options for resolving the situation.