RE: Wake up Lawrence19 Apr 2022 08:45
Is it time to sell shares of Petropavlovsk
In the event of a sale of Petropavlovsk's assets, they will have to sell them significantly below their fair value and curtail operations, says Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Arikapital Management Company. In addition, the inability to service debt obligations may mean a technical default. “The prospect of easing sanctions is not yet visible, and therefore it is better to sell shares on rebounds and shift to calmer stories,” Suverov said.
The sale of operating subsidiaries will mean either a reduction in the scale of activities, or a complete curtailment of production, adds Dmitry Puchkarev, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments. “A way out of this situation can be found if agreements are reached with Gazprombank with the weakening of foreign exchange controls. In this case, it is possible to restore the papers. Otherwise, it is possible that the company will have to curtail its activities in some form,” he says.
BCS notes that in the first half of 2021, the company's capital was $709.6 million, which corresponds to 14.4 rubles per share. According to Dmitry Puchkarev, theoretically, the situation with Petropavlovsk may be similar to the Lenzoloto case in 2021, when the board of directors recommended paying dividends to shareholders before selling the only asset to Polyus. They exceeded the value of the shares by more than 60%. “In theory, the situation may be similar, but it is not yet clear whether assets will be sold, if so, which ones, and how much they will be able to fetch for them. There is no report for 2021 yet, it is not possible to assess what difficulties the company faced in 2022 due to sanctions. The marked 14.4 rubles is rather the maximum that can be distributed in favor of the shareholders,” says Puchkarev.
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The review "VTB - My Investments" also notes that the sale of Petropavlovsk's assets without a significant discount to a fair valuation is impossible, which puts pressure on share prices. In general, VTB analysts note high uncertainty regarding gold mining companies registered abroad and recommend investing in Polyus, which sells all gold on the domestic market.
The sanctions only exacerbated the already difficult situation of the company, whose quotes were under pressure from a decrease in production volumes, said Alexei Kalachev, an analyst at FG Finam. “We could assume such a rather complicated algorithm of actions: by selling shares in our subsidiaries in Russia, for example, to a large bank that was not included in the UK sanctions list, having thus received funds, we can declare a delisting and buy back our cheap shares on the LSE. Then change jurisdiction to Russia (for example, in the SAR on Russky Island), conduct an SPO on the Moscow Exchange, and exchange part of the shares for returned shares in their companies. But this is