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Rory, I know what you mean.
However if a million tonnes of production was lost due to mines no longer able to operate on those margins and closed.
But the market has only dropped 800,000 there is opportunity through demand for the lower cost production mines to fill that gap of 200,000. A mine is operating or not, it is not like retail selling of third party product. So it cannot exactly follow demand, it has small variability otherwise on or off. It is difficult to start up again too.
If low cost extraction mines keep expanding and filling demand the high extraction mines will never get back in.
Demand moved to high efficiency low cost production. For low cost production mines that is an increase in demand for their product.
The mine closures can't exactly follow supply needs and conversely if demand picks up it will be difficult to keep aligned.
Rory, what you mean is overall lithium demand does not increase in that scenario.
However demand for efficiently and low cost produced lithium will surge it has to, because it has to replace the high cost extraction lithium which can no longer be produced. That falls into our market.
I am not sure that you would describe the low sale of supercars because most can't afford them as constrained supply.
Kodal was the amalgamation of two companies, one with the name Kodal, Bernard covered it off in an interview which was more centred on him.
Kodal had some Norwegian interest, the Goldfields I believe are from Bernard's company.
Best go back and listen to the interview.
Suay Chin I believe chickened out of Bougouni and then the company settled into the current direction and, as far as I am aware dumped a few other projects on the way.
The history is all there if you are stuck for something to do.
Rorydino, it does if all of the higher extraction cost mines close down - they don't switch on like a light.
Supply would be behind demand - relatively demand is up for low cost producers in this scenario of which we are one.
SorryJW, if amongst the pages and pages of bashing and tripe you have written, that most of us skip over, you got something right, which most likely was just a downward share movement, not exactly a prophecy, then well done heres a gold ⭐
But really that is for your mum to do for you as this is an investor board.
Ps don't forget your packed lunch.
Hope, it is not for sure that it is, but looks like it, it is a high extraction cost source of lithium.
CATL have the contracts many of them with fixed prices, or capped and collared payments, if they are closing the higher cost existing lithium sources this will be a car crash for any new high extraction cost mining operation, current or in the pipeline.
Thankfully we are (very) low extraction cost as are Leo Lithium next door. We can still make big profits on the current lithium price and lower.
It will be interesting to see how this unfolds but ultimately it will lead to a surge in demand which may be difficult to fill.
If this is correct there will be more casualties.
Https://m.miningweekly.com/article/australian-lithium-stocks-rally-on-speculation-of-china-mine-closure-2024-02-19
If this continues there will be a surge in demand.
Cheers time, that means all are now on site?
Watch the results start piling in from those, I wonder if they have a better lab arrangement - could be where Hainan can help with their contacts.
Accion in regard to the NPV quoted that is correct as that NPV is on one seam. However the current drilling campaign is to find more feed best suited for the DMS according to Bernard, so we will have to see how he summarises at the next resource uplift. It may not necessarily remain on one seam.
Sharespy, elcobble - itch lol
Without unblocking the poster/posters I know from the replies it is the age old basher/troll postings.
In the share they promote, even with all in, buying more, buyout imminent etc posts, low and behold when their share price bombed, they top sliced, averaged down were on a free ride or whatever term they are using. Timing absolutely perfect. The fact their alleged free ride shares dropped in value is irrelevant - they don't term that as a drop in value or loss in their posts.
The fact top slicing or whatever they want to call it would show lack of conviction in their share is irrelevant.
The fact that their company looks finished is irrelevant.
The fact they say it is going to be amazing but don't say they are putting more in is irrelevant.
You investors in here on a share they are bashing on the other hand...
Between inflexion points the share value dips, but can't always be guaranteed, so the fact your gains have wained is much worse, that in their posts is a massive loss.
The fact that the company is successfully going from inflexion point to inflexion point raising cash and material assets is much worse than their share and is most definitely not a positive.
The fact no fund raising or dilution is required is irrelevant, dangers are lurking everywhere.
Yet they continue to post with conviction and genuinely believe that an investor somewhere may listen and say do you know what, they may have a point... Or I think we have found the next Einstein.
Different names, different shares same old rubbish.
Basher, I can't tell if that is two or three rigs now on site.
If the two lorry based rigs are identical it is three.
I wonder if they have ramped up the shifts on them too with the funding.
Elcobble agree re Bernard and his Mali and Africa experienced crew.
We don't have to look far to see a contrast, or the potential cost of cutting corners.
You can't argue with 115m dollars cash. None of this, is it, isn't it there with that asset.
One 100m dollar lithium deal JV another 2m dollar deal and another lithium deal due to be signed and a string of gold leases.
Stick those on a virtual set of scales and for the same market cap try to find another AIM share on the other side to outweigh it.
The ones that could have already made the share price/market cap leap.
Paul both good posts and I agree with everything you said, our thoughts seem aligned, which you would expect if invested and researched in the same stock.
I am amazed how much they have achieved with their low level of cash burn.
To stop and think what we have is incredible. It all just needs valuations on everything, not just Bougouni lithium.
The lithium we all know about 100m dollars cash in a subsidiary with 30m dollars above the cost of the project.
However Kodal itself has around 15 million dollars cash, just under 25% of our market cap and a string of Goldfields.
Plus we are waiting for a 2m dollar payment from Leo Lithium and a contract for a share of West bougouni lithium field with the option to increase our share if we wish.
There aren't many AIM shares like this one.
I can't wait to see what moves Bernard makes with our Goldfields and if he is going to turnover them for capital to sink into another site what on earth he has had his eyes on over his geologist career. Exciting.
Rall in the main I don't disagree with your post
However I see the potential buying price as a bit of a finger in the air job.
Having read everything possible for years around this share I have no idea at all if Leo Lithium coming out of suspension will send investors from there, to here in droves or not. As they can replicate their previous gains next door if we follow the same path and those unfortunate enough to invest when the price was high may recover their losses. That will occur before the year end and could push our share price up on three fronts. 1 Leo shareholders may purchase, 2, our deal can go through with Leo so we get our share in another lithium play and 2m dollars, plus the mining office is open and the Leo cloud gone.
Plus we don't have a clue what the maiden value on Nielle Goldfield could be and it may well come in before the year end.
So any share price predictions are nothing but guesses, but either way someone gets to say I told you so and then informs everyone about their star reading ability or whatever.
But the part I found a little fart jetty in your comment was, assuming something unforeseen doesn't wipe us out as with any AIM share, is at worst you see around 300% at best a multiple of 10, but don't buy today wait in case it goes down a further 0.05 pence per share or so?
Really?