Member Info for Laura2022

Appleee

Yes, I posted at 07 00am

Im now up 100% in just 3 days

Lovely

With property assets £1.4mln v £700mln cap, and taking into account debt and liabilities and on x 10 EBITDA ( 10 x £270mln)

It has to be at least x 1 premium from £1.75)

= £3.50

Was 11..6 x SPI EBITDA in 2021 when offer was made and major holders was willing to accept it with 30% support

Current SPI EBITDA from Dec 2025 update is c £270/280mln

X 11.6 = c £3.1bln ( x 4 currrent SPI market cap )

Lithium more new highs

Up another 8%

Sharepicks

I know, see my post Friday afternoon:)

As expected

Eg

Inspecs 107%

Spectris 105%

Walkers Crips 87%

Shatter

In 2025 there were also t/overs at 70-100%+

Yes, its his cousin

Ebitda in 2021 when offer was made was £160mln

Now in 2025 its £270/280mln

Imho only something like £3.00-3.50 would be acceptable

Spire Healthcare shareholders have voted against the company's £1.4bn takeover by Australia's Ramsay Health Care, sending shares in the UK private hospital group tumbling.

Spire said on Monday that total votes in favour of the deal were 69.88% at the General meeting and 72.07% at the Court Meeting, coming in below the 75% acceptance threshold.

"Accordingly, the acquisition of Spire by Ramsay has been terminated and the scheme has lapsed," the company said.

Ramsay had sweetened its bid for Spire earlier this month to 250p a share from 240p. However, shareholders Toscafund Asset Management and Fidelity made it clear that even if the improved offer significantly undervalued the group.

Had the acquisition gone ahead, it would have created the largest private hospital company in the UK.

Obviously there is the liabilities etc but clearly SPI should only accept something well north of £3.00

Of course this is all theoretical but when the property is worth double the market cap currently this could be a very lucrative trade.

Was 11..6 x SPI EBITDA in 2021 when offer was made and major holders was willing to accept it with 30% support

Current SPI EBITDA from Dec 2025 update is c £270/280mln

X 11.6 = c £3.1bln ( x 4 currrent SPI market cap )

Good point Loskins

Not a problem AT

Been a good time since Christmas, TGP up 200% since buying in November, RCFX from 5p to 13p RBD up 70%+ so far

Have a good 2026

Hopefully you'll be back to p&& soon as from £8t50k cap it should be x 5 at least

 Richard Griffiths has disclosed a shareholding in Spire Healthcare. As of early January 2026, he appeared on official dealing disclosures (Form 8.3) with almost a 3% interest.Activist Pre

Tadema

Morning and thanks

AI Overview

+5

Richard Griffiths is a prominent UK investor, known as the "Welsh Wizard" for his stockpicking, who acts as an activist investor by building significant stakes in companies like De La Rue and Cupid to influence strategy, having previously founded Evolution Group and ORA Capital Partners, and now focusing on life sciences and healthcare ventures through Bermele and private investments, often taking large stakes in smaller firms to drive value.

Key Aspects of His Activism & Investing:

Stake Building: He often buys significant shareholdings (e.g., >3%, >10%) in listed companies, triggering disclosure requirements and signaling intent.

Focus Areas: While involved in various sectors, recent reports highlight investments in life sciences, healthcare (Circassia, Ceres), and technology/services (Idox, Pulsar).

Thanks GGG

I'm in at c £1.71p average and see even £2.50 as a plausible and decent return

From a peak in summer 2025 they have been unwinding their position recently

This could be why ( courtesy of another poster )

Based on the reporting and market behaviour:

Most likely bidder category:

Large private equity firms (CVC, TPG, Blackstone, EQT, KKR)

Most likely strategic bidder:

Ramsay Health Care, because they previously attempted a takeover.

Overall probability ranking:

1. Private equity – very high likelihood

2. Ramsay Health Care – moderate to high

3. Other international hospital groups – moderate

4. Circle Health Group – low to moderate

UK healthcare acquisitions over the past decade (Circle/BMI, Ramsay’s previous Spire bid, Care UK, Priory, etc.) show:

• 20%–40% premium is standard for a recommended offer

• 30%+ is typical when the target owns valuable property assets (Spire owns ~£1.4bn of real estate)

( there have been many large premium takeovers generally in 2025 of 70-100% premiums )

That rejection by Ramsay now acts as a psychological floor.

No bidder can realistically come in below that level and expect support

2021 Ramsay Bid: Australian group Ramsay Health Care made an offer to buy Spire for over £1bn (250p a share) but faced strong opposition from Spire's investors who felt it undervalued the company's property assets, leading to the deal's collapse.

Recent Interest (2024/2025): Narayana Health of India was reported to be in talks to acquire Spire, with Spire's management exploring options to drive shareholder value.

Current Situation (Jan 2026): Spire has set a deadline for takeover interest as it reviews its strategy, with bids potentially valuing the company at significantly higher than the 2021 offer, given its valuable real estate portfolio.

Valuation Discrepancy: A major factor in past takeover struggles has been the significant difference between bids and shareholders' perceived value of Spire's extensive hospital property portfolio.

In essence, Spire Healthcare is currently in a period of strategic review, having previously fended off an acquisition offer from Ramsay Health Care and now facing renewed interest, particularly from Indian players, all while its substantial property assets remain a key point of contention in any potential deal.