RE: It’s obvious - a diplomatic agreement has to happen13 Mar 2022 12:41
CptSwag I happen to harbour the contrary view in that I don't think Russia will win and there are a raft of military experts out there that think likewise. I think sanctions, the supply of western munitions and the Ukranian resolve and tactics will prevail and hopefully arriving at a diplomatic solution, sooner rather than later.
Number of reasons for that belief.
*Vibes on movements in talks
*Ukraine is too large a country to try and conquer with only around 180,000 troops.
*Russia is suffering heavy casualties already which is depleting the trained soldier pool.
*They are also suffering very heavy losses to the machinery of war, planes, helicopters, tanks etc.
*Those 180k troops (reducing with mortality) you then have to keep supplied with food and munitions. Ukranian Aircraft, Drones, Surface to Air Missiles, Ambushes, Taking out Commanders and Command Points, Blown up roads and bridges, road signs all removed make this all the more perilous.
*For each town or city or area that you supposedly capture then you have to leave sufficient troops behind to maintain any new status quo. Otherwise Ukraine just regroups and takes it back.
* Fast forward a couple of weeks with all of the above continuing and still no "win" in sights, invaders morale depleting then what will you actually arrive at the doors to Kiyv with (massive city now fortified, urban warfare a different cup of tea)
* All troops similarly can't stay awake 24 hours per day.
Probably better to concentrate on Wednesday and Russia in all probability defaulting on it's debt as a reminder that all wars need to be funded...
Just my opinion
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