Member Info for LateStageCaptlst

APH if they're seriously talking about delisting interally now, they can't do anything further on director trades

delistings are brutal for PIs @licker

@licker, delistings are not like takeover offers though and are usually preceded by more bad news "unexpected deterioration in trading conditions, client contract termination ... will need to refi much sooner than expected ... being listed in UK was a mistake ... only option is to delist or do a yuge rights issue ..." with the golden share situation PIs only really have one option and likely get dragged along anyway as institutions will just want to bin it at that point

My views on ROO and similar (which I still stand by, but I only hold Just Eats right now) negate all views on ... but there are no delisting signals in all the noise right ... signals like not doing obvious RNS, MM already saying he wants to delist and hiring an ex-CFO whose last project was delisting a company off the market ...

conspiracy of shorts and FT journas to rob PIs of their value in an unfairly beaten down stock

or

stock has some big issues, is heading for a delisting and the professionals in the market have seen it all before many times

There is nothing to gain from MM pushing price up right now -- at least one of the two non-execs has recent experience of delisting

You guys don't seem to see signal in noise -- your biases are keeping you blind to what is going on

He was talking about going private when it was 140 or something, and how he had enough with friends to make that happen -- do you really think he's balls out to make his value back with a recovery on the market now it's at 40?

Delisting is the best play now for MM, expect that announcement after Q3 with an 'unforeseen' profits warning for H2 ... MM will say being listed does not work for the company and shareholders can either get out now or take a massive dilution in 23Q1 fund raising required to keep business as a going concern

Activity like raising personal cash by selling the property supports that

There was nothing in the H1 RNS to give positive outlook, there are no fluff announcements to jack the price, this looks and feels like a run it into the ground play now -- whilst looking like you're trying not too, any positive activity means paying more to delist

stockbrokerbelt, MM has to say that or he'll be accused of running it into the ground and playing for a delisting

right now a delisting, divestment, relisting on NASDAQ play is the best for him personally -- in his head he's lost billions here and he's not going to get that back on a FTSE long game as a retailer

Amann, they would only be selling the revenue, not the tech or logistics etc.

So it's not a massively attractive deal to anyone as it means completely replatforming everything or having Ingenuity etc. as long term supplier (fractal risks)

It would have to be a trade sale and why pay 4X revenue for a retailer right now -- a retailer in a discretionary sector with very little uniqueness, that money is better spent trying to directly capture market share

Hosai, Ocado is a tech company mostly -- they have real tech and it potentially a huge TAM

THG is reducing it's TAM to whale beauty brands -- and has almost no tech so vulnerable to any new platforms specialising in that sector

I wonder whether they tested higher prices and orders fell off a cliff -- so they decided to use some of the cash to keep revenue -- doesn't feel very sustainable if they did

If you assume MM wants to delist, not talking Ingenuity up now makes sense
We know he wants to float that on NASDAQ which is what the Softbank deal was all about
All I can see is some scenario where he takes it all private and sells off retail, or sells retail off and takes remaining private
I don't see anyway THG is in same format this time next year, he has to do something before the Golden Share lapses and he loses his control

It's not a tech business if you are at mercy of whey prices

The reason, likely, for no Ingenuity guidance is that they seem to be moving from quantity of sites to quality

But THG don't have a competitive platform -- new players are arriving daily with new tech -- how long can they retain the clients they have?

MM and board say staying listed is not viable, too costly, a distraction etc. ... at same time piling on the profits warnings ... SP is sitting at 10p end of Q3

He makes an offer to buy the public shares at 20p, he has the votes to carry it, everyone else gets carried along ... if the offer fails it will require a 1bn recap at worst possible time to raise funds so investors are screwed either way

MM takes private, breaks it up slowly over next 3 years, relists as a tech business on NASDAQ in 2025

I seem to remember MM said previously between his holding and friendly investors he can muster enough for a delisting

This was a mediocre report, my prediction is 'unexpected' profit warning in Q3 because of exceptional consumer spending drop on discretionary products

Followed by an even more dismal outlook statement ... after considering all options and taking advice the board of directors plan to delist from the market

Gillian Davies appointed NED today appears to have recently delisted an AIM company as CFO

They pitched themselves as a global ecommerce services provider, with a few own brands (with hints the brands would get divested) so they become a pure tech business

That's why they were on such high multiples to begin with

Now nobody is talking about about tech, 'muh protein powder sales'

This isn't a tech search engine pivoting into a tech advertising company (Google)

This is a tech ecommerce platform company pivoting to become Frasers or whatever

If the price of whey impacts your numbers massively, you're not a tech business

If shorts are a problem -- there is only one way to beat the shorts and that is to consistently smash expectations

Whining about shorts just attracts more shorts -- shorts are a symptom of a problem, not the problem

Moulding invested nothing in serious R&D, they have no technical advantage, if they are just going to be a retailer then they are of no interest to many investors

it's end of cycle for this kind of ecom now, players will consolidate, but outside of that -- unlikely to see material value increase until next cycle begins

but be cognisant that, right now, THG has no unique platform tech (vs players like VTEX) and the market is getting increasing competitive with the new headless technologies and AI optimisation emerging

Do we know Softbank are still interested?

Marcelo Claure got exited a few months back and I always felt he was pretty key to that deal as MM and MC would have known each other MM's Cauldwell days

There is too much going on with THG internally for directors to buy -- we know they're talking about potentially taking private, the PE offer situation (even if nothing solid) etc.

Even if they are clean, a director doing a transaction now and then in a few weeks or so there is some news -- they leave themselves exposed to legal action which could disrupt whatever they are planning

Perversely it's possibly in MM's interest for the shareprice to continue down right now -- it reinforces 'we should not have listed in London' and builds a case for taking it private -- the lower that price the better