Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Tom I think you might be confused about the warrants. They are not new and they are not being exercised. They are simply being listed. It's a complete non-event in my opinion. The interesting part about it is that it has happened at the same time as the change in year end. These are normally boring corporate housekeeping items. The question people should be asking themselves is why is all this tidying up being done? In an acquisition of ARCM rather than a JV, the warrants would be taken into account and (probably) settled direct by the acquirer, though I will admit I am not familiar with the stock market rules as they relate to that process - it might be that warrant holders exercise and then tender their shares into the event. It doesn't matter, as any bid for the shares would be on a fully diluted basis. Just my opinions, not to be relied upon.
I'm no expert but I think all they are doing is listing the warrants. This has no bearing on them being exercised. To me, it looks like corporate housekeeping. And we all know what type of event(s) might have them focused on housekeeping.
Agree highly doubtful it's a strategic buyer - all they would achieve is to move the price against themselves and, worst case, put themselves in a position where they were forced to make a bid. If MMs are working with bigger buyers most likely they are individuals or institutions.
Looking at the trade summaries it would seem to support that theory. Tiny volumes, because everyone is a buyer, but at yesterday's price, so no supply. One big trade, of 1.5m shares, which was a buy and will have resulted from one or more MM putting together lots of scrappy little trades.
Periods of low volume where the market is one-sided and looking to buy at yesterday's price often/usually result in a breakout to the upside in my experience.
are an essential component of success.
I've been fortunate enough to be involved in a number of transformational trades over the years.
One of the acid tests is always that you need people telling you you're an idiot, and that the trade is doomed.
This is quite different from those simply looking for reassurance. They add no value and are essentially passengers. But the ones aggressively telling you how wrong and stupid you are, they are gold. Embrace them!
Totally agree with you SH. One minor correction is that I think they referred to FCF of $25m.
What's the right capitalisation rate for that cashflow? I would argue more than 5% but less than 15%.
For the sake of argument, that's a mid-point of $250m or 3x the current MCAP from Cheyeza ALONE...