Member Info for landman27

You're seeing justification in Israeli propaganda which suggests you're well off the mark, unless you are also Israeli propaganda. Furthermore, China has the largest oil reserves in Asia - plus they imported plenty of extra russian oil in February in anticipation of this situation, Japan has the 3rd largest and they're dwindling. The Iran war in fact weakens US influence in Asia, so as a precursor to war, it puts the US in a worse position relative to China. Trumps art of the deal....

Croft, you need to understand what an Israeli propaganda account on X is. Aligning with one isn't a badge of honour.

Lols. Trump played this well? what planet are you on?

Ralph, you know on the left of the message where it says 'no opinion'? Yours should say 'no brain'.

Military attacks by Israel and the United States in June 2025 hit several major facilities, after which Iran suspended cooperation, expelled inspectors temporarily, and has since denied the IAEA access, reports and design information for all the attacked sites and for its newest enrichment plant (IFEP). As a result the IAEA no longer knows where Iran’s enriched uranium is, what its exact stockpile is, or how many centrifuges it has, and cannot verify whether enrichment, reprocessing or heavy‑water work have been suspended as required by UN Security Council resolutions. Iran is also not applying the strengthened “modified Code 3.1” early‑notification rules or its Additional Protocol, and unresolved safeguards issues about possible undeclared nuclear material remain, so the Agency cannot give assurance that Iran’s programme is exclusively peaceful.

Another Trump own goal.

EIA : Brent crude oil to peak at an average of $115 per barrel in second quarter 2026

EIA sees 2026 Brent price average of 96 per barrel versus prior forecast 78.84 per barrel; 2027 forecast of 76.09 per barrel versus 64.47 per barrel

BB Hoppa

I don't really believe its rationally likely, but then again, I didn't believe I would ever read social media messages from the President of the United States threatening to nuke a country.

Violindog. if you think Iran's nuclear capability is anything more than a trite justification you haven't read enough about the Iraq war. Israel have been using that line with Iran since 1981 and Trump 'obliterated' their nuclear programme last summer, apparently. Is it a distant possibility....but if Israel keep behaving like this, is there a possibility of international sanctions which could affect Navitas, and therefore RKH?

I think judging by options structure the market is still expecting an end to come in the next 2-3 weeks - or at least a workable reopening of the SOH. But, the knock on effects of everything are now more widely expected to be deeper, so the equity tailwind of resolution is now predicted to be less impactful. One thing the war has shown is that Iran have inadvertently learnt a new tactic and found a new strength because of it. And that Trump is genuinely insane. The gulf states (or anyone else) might not have a choice but to accept a toll for using the SOH - a report by Goldmans last week suggested this, which they labelled 'a subscription model'. The flipping of the WTI/Brent spread already suggests that safety of resource, rather than accessibility, is the most important factor moving forward.

Options data is suggesting there is a mid April price cliff for oil. There needs to be some sort of resolution - which is still expected - in the next 2-3 weeks otherwise oil remains much higher for longer, as the curve reprices. The greeks suggest people are betting that there will be a resolution, resulting in relative normalisation, but if it doesn't happen the price consequence will be violent. And even with resolution, the structural price floor for Brent has risen from $65 to $75-80 - the new normal price moving forward. The curve is still saying this is a transient situation and the war premium is temporary, but it is pricing it with less conviction and with a tighter time frame.

Highest volume day since FID

If you attribute the lassonde curve to RKH, and some won't, you must accept it is in it right now. And then you also must accept that the lassonde curve can take decades to play out.

Mirasol

Yes. And looking at the 28 and 29 contracts, brent appears to be around 68, or 69 USD. Still not relevant, but certainly more relevant than spot.

Gallopingdonkey

the normal state of the oil market is backwardation

Here he is

you can also run risk analysis on meteors hitting the earth. Oil was still $65.

Bigred, the lassonde curve has "kicked in". this is the lassonde curve.

Commodities supercycle = gold, silver, copper, oil

Mark

Its the difference between maker and taker. Sells are when a bid is hit, buys are when an offer is paid. Thats how the system distinguishes trades.

I hope everyone has worked out how to claim their OO shares. Looks like its headed down to 53p anyway - its the 50% fib retracement level of the move up since dec 24, plus the confluence of the OO, so it would make sense to give it a visit.

Hi Nikb, great insight.

Whats the furthest out contract that oil futures or physical trade?