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"Do not think they have Telegraph money yet is that deal with the competition committee ?"
Lloyds was given the cash to settle the Telegraph debt months ago and exit the mess, they're not involved with competition committee.
Final dividend will be 1.84 pence aligning with their investor returns policy, likely will be another year of buybacks, usually it’s £2billion allocated, the large institutional investors want buybacks over special dividends while the share price is below asset price.
Last financial year they couldn’t quantify the impact of the car ppi, likely will be the same position for the next results, they won’t know till back end of 2024 but they certainly have ideas on worst case cost, if you’ll interested listen to the QAs on results day.
They see financial years 2023 & 2024 as recovery years, they’re be targeting accelerating investor returns from financial year 2025 (subject to guidance from the big institutional investors), though maybe brought forward if results from plans Andre better than expected and forecast to continue on that path.
The question mark over the upcoming results is what happens to the telegraph returned cash, (special dividend and/or buyback) or put to another use. Personally I’d like a 0.5 pence special dividend and it’ll be a good way to kick off increased investor returns in addition to their returns policy.
Every year there is speculation on what investors will get but all the information is out there to know the most likely outcome and their returns policy.
Some interesting questions & answers on the Lloyds earning call today, lots of positives for shareholders over the next few years. Never heard them give a prediction of where the share value could get close to around year end, if it bares out may see a 10% uplift.
https://www.ft.com/content/aae589e9-74f5-45fd-aa3c-5d4a7d548c40
Reading this On FT, I see this as a big risk for Lloyds, from memory Nunn’s predecessor had at least two attempts at digital transformation, they got a stake in a finance cloud company which they were planning to use their IF brand as a proof of concept for migration to their digital proposal. Updates were light, limited to ‘it’s progressing’.
I see from the full years results that Nunn is embarking on a new digital transformation programme, which the annual report says they migrated 5% of accounts in the last year. They need to get off the legacy systems which I’ll assume are at least 20-30years, to which they’ll be struggling to ensure they maintain the needed technical skillset, retiring staff, programming language gaps in today talent pool.
At this rate it’s going to take 20 years to move of legacy systems, this will be holding them back developing solutions that the new challenger banks are doing. The challenger banks will have their problems when they get into the higher volume accounts bringing more regulation which gives the like of Lloyds some bandwidth to not lose market share but it could get to a point when Lloyds misses the boat.
If there had been no buybacks then maybe short term you would of benefited from a higher dividend but longer term the dividend growth would be at a slower rate. Buybacks to date have boosted the dividends by at least 20% on top of business profit growth and improve the likelihood of sustained dividend returns to shareholders.
+flec
The board have been clear on their plans since 2019 to at least 2025 and their predictions on how they think the market will play out, so far it’s all playing out to a T. If it carries on like this then dividends for the next 3 years are a known quantity to us and it’s easy for investors to decide whether to stay on the ship or let it sail away.
Consensus on Ordinary dividend :-
2022 2.40p
2023 2.67p
2024 2.90p
2025 3.34p
Nothing unexpected in the above, it all aligns with the guidance Lloyds have been giving shareholders over the past couple of years.
https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/assets/pdfs/investors/financial-performance/lloyds-banking-group-plc/2022/full-year/2022-lbg-fy-consensus.pdf
Don’t get carried away, the dividend will be 1.6p, anything extra will be buybacks as the share price is below NAV. Lloyds each year give clear guidance regards policy on share holder returns, just read the annual reports and listen to the shareholder institution questions and answers.