Don't bet against SMT --- Citywire2 Feb 2022 17:29
Don’t bet against Scottish Mortgage
Scottish Mortgage (SMT), the popular global growth investment trust to which Numis is corporate broker, suffered a painful 34% slump between November and 24 January. While not going quite as far as rival broker Stifel, which last month responded by upgrading the Baillie Gifford flagship to ‘buy’, the Numis analysts say it has ‘generally not paid to bet against Scottish Mortgage in difficult times’.
They point out the £17bn FTSE 100 fund has survived repeated big falls, or ‘drawdowns’, in the 2008 financial crisis and in the last two years of the coronavirus pandemic, but has always bounced back. It remains the best long-term performer in its sector with a stunning 829% total shareholder return over 10 years.
Ewan Lovett-Turner, Numis’ head of investment companies research, today sought to reassure investors worried by the impact of rising interest rates on the highly-rated technology stocks held by Scottish Mortgage, recalling how fund managers James Anderson, Tom Slater and Lawrence Burns did not believe it had been the ultra-low cost of borrowing of the past decade that had boosted the trust’s performance in the past decade. Instead, they argue it has been ‘Moore’s Law’ and the doubling of computer power about every two years that lay behind the varied success of stocks such as Amazon, Tesla, Illumina and ASML.
At 2% below net asset value at yesterday’s close, Scottish Mortgage shares are not as cheap as they were last month when they hit a low 7% discount, having rallied 9% since Burns told investors it was the worst time to sell.
Lovett-Turner said: ‘We still think they can deliver attractive long-term returns.’
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