Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
@Conger2
Not matter you were fooled or trying to fool us.
Let me emphasis my conclusion: the IAG's profitability has been weakened compared to that in Q3 2023 as well as Q4 2022.
Retails can easily be fooled by what you taking about (i.e., Creditors change / debotors change / tax liabilitys / asset pruchases )
However, cash in balance and debt can not fool anybody.
@Conger2, Let me write it more clear.
In summary, they spend 2850m in Q4-2023, and paid 1145m debt. So there is 1705m cash missing.
Was the 1705m cash spent on operating cost ? No at all !!
Have a look at their profit. They did not lose anything in operating, but earned 502m (Please be aware, it is not revenue here it is profit. That means the operating cost has been included here) !
So if there is no operating lossing, where is the 1705m (cash) + 502m (new cash flow) in Q4-2023 ????
(again, do not compare cash/debt of Q4 2022 !)
@Conger2, as I mentioned, do not compare the year-to-year result !
The link that you supported are all year-to-year results, which will fool you !
Open RNS, and have a look their Q3-2023 report, and Q4-2023 report.
9,218(30/09/2023) - 6,837(31/12/2023) = 2850m (you mentioned (2,762) ? of-course you misunderstand what I am talking about).
In summary, they spend 2850m in Q4-2023, and paid 1145m debt. So there is 1705m cash missing.
Then we checked their profit, finding that their actually earn 502m ! rather than losing
So, where is the 1705m + 502m in Q4-2023 ????
(again, do not compare cash/debt of Q4 2022 !)
Please forgot to compare the year-to-year result ! Let us focus on quarterly results.
Firstly,what happened in Q4 2022 ?
Cash:9,260(30/09/2022) --> 9,599 (31/12/2022), increased !
Gross debt: 20,318 --> 19,984, reduced !
Net debt: 11,058 ---> 10,385, reduced
Operating profit: +486
So, it is a reasonable quarter.
In contrast, Let us have a look what happened in Q4 2023,
Cash:9,218(30/09/2023) --> 6,837(31/12/2023), about 2850 missing !
Gross debt: 17,227 --> 16,082, 1145 reduced !
Net debt: 8,009 ---> 9,245, 1236 increased
Operating profit: +502
So, I have to ask where is the money than earned in Q4 2023 ?
In 2022, a more difficult period, we can still see where the money going.
The debt gradually reduced
There is no share buy-back in Q4, and has not made any payment to buy Air-Euro.
So, where is the money that we earned in Q4 ? and where is the 2850m cash going ?
Do they have 40,000 salary in average ? I previously lived near Hesthrow airport for 1 year, and rented a house from a BA staff. He complainted a lot about their salaries....especally the young person.
Burning ??? So, have you ever think about what is the SP price that the shorters got ??
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I previously purchased CINE at 40p in 2020 and sold it at 100p in 2021.....and then watching its SP droped to 60p and the short position climbed to over 8% !!
In May 2021, I had thought for a long time how CINE can sort it debt.... no answer, and I gave up CINE and went to ENQ (oil & gas)
Now in 2022, I found CINE's sp just 2p, and short position is 3-4%. Most of shorters got they shares over 60p !!
we all know the dividend net debt situtation a few days ago (it has been report in last RNS). I think that it has already been reflected in the SP last week. The EBITDA is close to the 2018's annual report level.....but the SP is still just 1/3 - 1/4 of 2018-2019. Of-course, there is no dividend, but the SP should not stay as low as this level.
@Simes20
You still did not give a solid reason why do you think CARD net income will be 33% of previous levels.
CARD exists in our daily lives, we can easily do a survey by ourselves, rather than just relying on reports....
I bravely guess that you do not have a child, and therefore do not understand that CARD is a solid requirment for UK families. For example, my child's classmates, my neighbour, and my collegues. These kind of people has a huge amount, but it is not worth to send them an expensive card from moonpig. So every year, I will purchase dozen of cheap cards from CARD factory.
Have you really done a survey of you surrounding friends regarding their habit where to purchase cards ?
@Simes20
Please consider the following simple logic.
In 2019, CARD 's SP is 150-160, and its net debt is 141m. Now, in 2022, its net debt is 60m, and SP is 50-60.
You have mentioned many negative factors for CARD. Do you really think these factors will make CARD's net income in 2022 reduce to just 33% of its 2019 level ?
In addtion, the increasing interest rate and energy bills will cause a cost problem for every companies, not just CARD, but CARD is so "foolish" to report that.
Currently, CARD's SP has recovered much slower than IAG, CCL, CINE, HMSO, etc. Do you really think that these companies will not be affected by the inflation rate ? especially IAG.
The real reason may be that CARD is in small cap market, which is less attractive compared with FEST 250. So MM can control its SP much easier.
I think that the recent drop is because of Russian's issue....have a look at the SGC or other shares recently.
I do not think that there will be a war.
However, the stock market still dropped (such as SGC and CARD), since there is a war possiblity.....
Ironically, the oil shares dropped (such as TLW and ENQ) as well.......since the war possiblity is too small.
The current key point is the recovery from Covid, rather than online business.Yes, the online business is not good, but so what ? CARD's pre-Covid price is 160. If there is no Covid, the effect of the poor-onile business may make it drop to 120. That's all. The broker rating price is also 110p.
However, what is the SP price now ? 55p !
CARD net debt is only 60m now, and its debt situtation much better than CINE, IAG, Eeasject, etc.,
I do not know undertand why the other shares achieved over 20% since Dec, but CARD has dropped back.....
Maybe just because CARD is not that attactive as CINE, and MM can easily play the game.......
@Porsche1946
Do not make any sense. The current key point is the recovery from Covid, rather than online business.
Yes, the online business is not good, but so what ?
Its pre-Covid price is 160. If there is no Covid, the poor-onile business may make it drop to 120. That's all.
but, what is the SP price now ? 55p !
CARD net debt is only 60m now, and its debt situtation much better than CINE, IAG or Easyjet.
I do not know undertand why the others achieved over 20% since Dec, but CARD has no change......