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Hey Mousey, out of curiosity, would you mind sending us the link to the video you were on about in your earlier comment? - unsure if that vid was in relation to Open Orphan or MED Energy (though sounded like it was about Open Orphan)...
Oh wow, well done for managing to break even mate! That's a tough one to break even on if you were invested that long ago! I'm only more recent in AMGO...
And yeah, fair enough, you make a very solid point for sure, and worthwhile mentioning it for the purposes of comparissons, so no need to apologise!
Glad you're comfortable with this share though, I am as well, even though my investment here is currently down from my buy in!
Thanks Vagabond72, good luck to you too! :)
@Vagabond72 I'm actually an AMGO holder myself... Yes, it's a high risk share, in that it's all or nothing, however the chances are significantly weighted in AMGO's favour, especially as the FCA are not opposing the proposed scheme, the only real hurdle remaining is the creditor vote, which looks like it will heavily favour the SOA, as the FOS and past creditors will make up a large proportion of the voting population...
Alas, I don't have anywhere near enough money to hold half of what the Balls of Steel group hold, but they are going to make an absolute killing when things go through in a month... or they're gonna loose a hell of a lot.... but giving the II's interest, and all the factors, it's looking very much in favour of AMGO... With sufficient research, you can minimise the risk you take on...
I agree though, our MXC is much lower risk... no insolvency warnings or anything of the kind... Some very promising meds in the pipeline, and also in the highly anticipated CBD market sector, which is likely to grow massively in the coming years...
As a Biotech, there is naturally a lot of volatility associated with them at this sort of stage, but given what they've already got out, and the things they'll hopefully have rolling soon, I do think MXC are a gold mine for a long term holder, as well as for cleverly played short-term traders...
@Malpenn - the other Amigo Shareholder that you refer to her talking to might've been me lol...
She responded to one of the comments I had written with the following email (the first part of the comment was cut off, and unfortunately I can't find a copy of it, wish I had one to share with you all, as it was pretty good... ) :
Hi,
you left a comment:
"The problem is, if all these people complaining had gone elsewhere for their loans, they would be having interest rates much higher than what Amigo offered. Whilst amigo SHOULD have performed more thorough affordability checks, those who went to them for loans in the first place are adults and knew what they were doing. Amigo did not approach them and coax them into taking out loans. All other sub-prime lenders charge much higher APR’s, and even bank overdrafts are at rates similar to that of Amigo’s. Moreover, Gary Jenison and the new Board of Directors are clearly dedicated to trying to make ammends and create a fairer, Amigo 2.0.
So ask yourself, is Amigo going into administration really the best outcome? Are there other, better lenders out there currently? The only other options are loan sharks, and that’s getting real dangerous.
Is it fair that people will likely get back less than they are owed? No. But at the same time, is it better than receiving absolutely nothing? Yes."
I am not publishing that. It is not helpful to Amigo customers.
The FCA did a lot of research on what happened when the number of payday loans halved in 2014/15 as the payday loan price cap came in. They found no evidence of increased use of loans sharks. People didn't borrow, or borrowed from family, or took debt advice instead.
Will Amigo 2.0 be fairer? Who knows. But given some of Amigo's current decisions (see https://debtcamel.co.uk/amigo-unpaid-interest-remove-ccjs/) I am not optimistic.
regards, Sara
Nice of you to share that with us Ehsan! :)
Aye Inforanickel, I believe ISA thinks so as well, but was giving that as a gross approximation for a conservative estimate, to see how badly the vote could go, and demonstrated that even in that scenario, it would still probably be in our favour.
Yeah, I feel ya buddy!
There's just such a large number of factors at play unfortunately.
We've got the underlying risk of the vote itself, as that's not guaranteed, then there's the traders and mm's up to their usual business, and now you've got loads of media and such throwing slander our way. We've got the debt humps up to her mischief, and loads out their being very verbal about how disgruntled they are, making things appear much more bleak than they were before.
On top of that, end of tax year, so people adjusting their portfolios etc. etc.
imo, the vote is very much weighted in our favour, and for me, that's the most crucial risk factor at this point...
Yet another thread very rich with productive discussion, nice one ISA!
With regards to what you're saying, those are some very conservative estimates, which I think do give us a very good idea of the conservative estimate, which still seems to be overwhelmingly positive.
Also, when you consider, of the claimants, there were only a huge number made upon the announcement of the scheme, and they only totalled about 12k at one point, so I imagine of the 300k current customers, if any are voting outright no, it'll be from those 12k current...
As for all the negativity in the social media, a few have alluded to it, but generally only the disgruntled will make noise. So whilst we're seeing tons of negativity thrown about the place, that's simply because people don't tend to feel a need to throw the positivity about as much. So we're very unlikely of getting much of a representation of the positive voters at all, let alone a proportional representation of those with that outlook.
I suppose only time will tell though...
ISA-Investor, Timmy seems to be obsessed with the idea of a 10p share price, it seems, in his mind, anything and everything will result in it hitting that....
On a more realistic note, I think if the had to give 50% of profits, and that was established anytime before all this is finalised, then that would still result in a sp rise, as it would be an indicator that people would be more likely to vote in favour of the scheme, and therefore lower likelihood of all going tits-up. However, naturally having to pay 50% of profits is not as great as having to pay only 15%, so that would certainly result in the sp being significantly lower than it would be if it passed with having to pay only 15% of profits...
Timmycoles, contributions going up and more than 15% profit is potential, but the numbers you're giving are what I'd think are the extreme top end of what is possible.
Magpies1862 at no point did I state that. I said from my understanding of it, and this was my first time having a go at it. I thought it might be helpful, as to the best of my knowledge, it is correct technical analysis.
But as Mittenator said, there are many more factors than just technical analysis. However, technical analysis is a part of it all, so I shared it as a point of interest. An additional point of consideration if you will, to help us form a more wholesome perspective of the situation.
Mittenator, aye, confident words, but they were based purely on the technical analysis, which I should've specified, and made more of a point that obviously there are many factors other than the technical analysis, as you said.
You're 100% right, to predict all the turning points of the market is nigh on impossible. Technical analysis is one insight, out of many, and since nobody has shared any, I thought I'd share some to try help us all understand what was going on yesterday. Clearly today's demonstrated that other factors have outweighed the technical, which is a shame, but also not the end of the world.
Cheers Mittenator :)
Mittenator, obviously the trend I spotted was invalidated, as I said it could be, by a move further down.
No need for the sarcasm thanks.
This was my first attempt at technical analysis, and was trying to help provide some insight, which is a damn lot more helpful than some others on here do...
@Jubberjim there's nothing wrong with having differing opinions, in fact I've seen some fair few examples of healthy discussion on this share board where people have had differing opinions. The issue comes in when people just post unsubstantiated comments, which hold no value except for coming across as de-ramping. From what I can see, the general attitude towards those kinds of comments is pretty hostile, however, when a comment is made by someone with a bearish outlook but that comment actually has some interesting points or something new to add to the table, that is generally taken on pretty well and discussed with the civility beholden of the adults on this chat.
As everyone here obviously has a vested interest in some direction, some people get emotional and either say something that goes a little too far, or take something they've read to mean something more than it does, and thus a heated argument ensues.
I think, in my mind, everyone is clear on a couple of things:
1: Outcome is not yet set in stone, therefore there is still some fair risk.
2: Debt Humps and various media outlet are doing all they can to paint our dear AMGO, and BOD as villains, to try and get the Scheme voted out.
3: There is A LOT of reasons why the scheme SHOULD go through.
4: With the above three in consideration, there is risk, but a lot of reason for optimism.
What happens next, we will see. Either the shorters or the holders will come out of this very happy. Personally, I hope it's us holders.
Wishing everyone a good week :)
Cheers mate! Just a bit of curiosity on my part really, thought I'd share in the case that either it'd be helpful to others, or someone else might correct/expand and provide further insight!
I've had faith since the shares were 6p, topped up once since then last week, don't have a huge position, but it is reasonable. Looking forward to see where this goes.
I think they would struggle to. High APR is a key factor that makes these businesses viable. It covers the risk they are taking on many lenders who might default. Hopefully, going forward, affordability checks etc. will help to reduce the rate of defaults, but even so, I see no reasonable cause to cap the APR.
- Mainstream lenders won't give credit
- sub-prime are next option
- why should they take more risk for the same reward as mainstream lenders?
The only other option for these borrowers is loansharks, which are absolutely savage options.
I think the services that amigo offer are already very reasonable. People need to simply start taking responsibility for the way they spend their money...