Member Info for Krayl49

I initially found EUA, at a price of 0.5p, by a ramp on the SXX board - so I am all in favour of pushing other shares.

With the news that NorNickel has increased its loan facility to over $4 billion:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MNOD/mmc-norilsk-nickel-nornickel-signed-a-syndicated-loan-facility-agreement-for-up-to-usd-4150-million-y1r5d52jrkhkhtd.html
and the recent news that it raised a $750 million dollar bond issue, it may be worth updating my post on some illustrative figures….
A sale of MT for $1 billion (80% owned) equates to 23p per share
Dimitri claimed EAU to be a billion dollar company, with an ebita of $250 million if the flanks licence is approved and we take on the mining. This was to tell the bidders that we don’t have to sell.
A value of $1 billion is 28p per share.
The two recent research papers valued the company at around 54 – 60p per share.
With rival bidders the valuation of MT alone could be more than this. There is a reserve of 15Moz including the flanks. Palladium is currently selling at around $2500 per oz. Extraction costs have been quoted at around $400 to $500 per oz, leaving a profit before tax etc of around $2000 per oz or a total of $30 billion. In the wider area there is thought to be about 40Moz or $80 billion revenue. It therefore seems quite possible for a buyer to pay $3 or $4 billion, especially if part is deferred.
£1 per share equates $4.4 billion.
My own guess is that the deal could be $2.2 billion upfront (to give Dimitri, and us, a 50p dividend) plus deferred payments (and/or shares).

Take-over or not?
Apart from MT, the assets are fairly small as far as a big miner is concerned. I don't think they will have much interest in the odds and ends, and would pay very little extra for them. On the other hand the current management can continue working to exploit these other assets in the hope of another big payday.
Dimitri has always talked of sale of assets, not sale of the company.

First of all, I think a take-over is very unlikley. The BoD is planning to sell off the MT assets to monetise their biggest asset now rather than waiting years to develop it themselves. They then retain the other interests to try and do the same sort of thing again.
In this case there will be a special dividend that will paid to all shareholders. There will likely to be notice of this so the share price will immediatley rise to take it into account. You then decide if you want to sell and pay capital gains tax or wait and pay dividend tax.

Palladium One (PDM on the TSX -Canadian exchange) look like a similar play to what EUA were a few years ago. Worth keeping an eye on. I trade international stocks through Interactive Investor.

An interesting article. I had just assumed that VTB and Citic were in competition with each other but it appears that they will be working on the bid together.

Some illustrative figures….
A sale of MT for $1Billion (80% owned) equates to 23p per share
Dimitri claimed EAU to be a billion dollar company, with an ebita of $250 million if the flanks licence is approved and we take on the mining. This was to tell the bidders that we don’t have to sell.
A value of $1Billion is 28p per share.
The two recent research papers valued the company at around 54 – 60p per share.
With rival bidders the valuation of MT alone could be more than this. There is a reserve of 15Moz including the flanks. Palladium is currently selling at around $2400 per oz. Extraction costs have been quoted at around $400 to $500 per oz, leaving a profit before tax etc of around $1900 per oz or a total of $28 billion. In the wider area there is thought to be about 40Moz or $76 billion revenue. It therefore seems quite possible for a buyer to pay $3 or $4 billion, especially if part is deferred.
£1 per share equates $4.4 billion.
My own guess is that the deal could be $2.2 billion upfront (to give Dimitri, and us, a 50p dividend) plus deferred payments.

Yes -shouldn't have said connection - maybe progress

Looks like Dimitri has leaked the China connection to put pressure on the Russuian bank/bidders. In the RNS he can simply say that negotiations on ongoing, as previously stated.

Dimitri is in at 5p per share so my guess he will look for a 50p dividend, plus some money to be left in the company for future projects, plus some sort of profit sharing deal.

Re LINK selling:
The transfer to LINK happened on 15th Oct and there was only a small dip in the price - 3.2 to 2.7 so probably due to sentiment rather than selling.
The big dip came on November 11th when Invesco (30%) and Baillie Gifford (5%) dumped their shares on the market, presumably the price had hit their stop loss and they decieded to get out.
Since then there has been no RNS - LINK have not sold their shares in the market, though as Bozomurky surmises they have probably been dispersing their shares within their own organisation. What I am saying is that there may not be any magic RNS, and the price will solely be determined by the market trading.

What does 3.925 × 8.6 represent?

$1 billion equates to 28.5p per share

For those who did not see this earlier:
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4221391
Chrome does a good job of translating this.
The BoD are saying that they can make $250M per year once the mines are operational, so NorNickel or whoever will have to pay a lot for the assets.

That article in the Russian press is dynamite - if that gets publicity the price will rocket.

Before the Woodford fire-sale the market rated this at around 3.3p, so we should expect it to go back to the same level once the selling has stopped - or perhaps a little higher as there has been a lot of interest. At that point it will behave like a 'normal' share, i.e. one of the many regarded as undervalued, with good medium-term prospects.

The TRX website records that LINK held 20% of the shares in November but it has not been updated. Can anyone tell me where to find the current major shaerholders? I am assuming that most of the Woodford/Link holding has now been sold as they are winding up by the end of the month. I also guess that Link hold shares for others, so the published figures may not be clear.

You can use https://www.google.co.uk/finance to get real time prices for free

I don't think that the directors can buy shares even if there is an RNS - if they have knowledge of the likely bid price they can't buy.

The Russian government gave the mining rights for Monchetundra to Eurasia. presumably some (smallish) fee was involved. Lets say for the sake of arguement that Eurasia then sells the rights to NorNickel for $500m. Why didn't the Russian government sell the rights initially for $500m - or auction it off?
If the sell-off does happen will the goverment then decide it wants a big chunk of it?