Member Info for Krakenoil

It has to SK, oil doesn’t find itself and oil field don’t refill !
2014/15 hurt the oil market badly and it’s never recovered, this pandemic has made it even worse. All points to a badly under supplied market. We don’t want $100 oil too soon......do we ?

Time and lack of investment, rigs are at a 14 year low, it took 2 years from the lows of 2016 to reach 2018 highs but back then investors were throwing huge amounts of cash at them, that’s not the case now, I doubt anyone will throw cash at them for the next year at least. Well decline rate have increased over the last few years meaning more and more wells required to maintain production rates, drilled wells are being used up fast without enough new ones drilled.

We are still worth a quid !

I think Opec have done a bloody good job if you ask me.

Brent around $45 -$50 is about the right balance in the current conditions.

Opec have worked so hard over the last few month's to balance the market, why would they ruin it now ?
They will keep a very tight balance on supply/demand until we see blue sky's ahead, no one can handle extremely low oil prices and no one can handle extremely high oil prices. Opec need to weather the storm as we don't want a superspike . I think Opec will keep the cuts as they are but ease it slowly as oil storage returns to normal levels, and that wont be until year end in my view

Yes your probably right Ferret, Trump is a damn idiot but will he listen …...no ! He is hoping herd immunity will prevail followed by this Magic Vaccine.
Oil prices will be forced much higher soon, not by demand but lack of supply, Investment across the globe in oil prospecting/discovery's has been at a all time low over the last 5 years, oil fields are in decline and we aren't far away from the end of the usual 7 year period of low oil prices.
Shale production is now in decline and will soon roll over as lack of drilled wells bite and who would invest in Shale right now ? You would have to be mad.
We could see US production fall 5m plus barrels by year end - Then what ?

The US holding mass covid parties is either utter madness or pure Genius. The death rate percentage is very low compared to the rest of the locked down world but most are young people thinking once they have got over it they will be immune from catching it again ! That's ok if they stay well away from the more venerable.
We will find out in due course.

The US infection rate will soon plummet !
Then the market will see this as a massive positive.
Floating storage is declining fast as oil demand rises, Opec don't have much choice other than to start easing on oil cuts otherwise oil price will climb too quick, keep oil prices under $45 for the next few months should keep Shale in the downward spiral.
Next year is the one we need to position for.

They have also just raised Enquest to' buy' and target price of 17p - they hate Enquest as well lol
Jefferies must know something we dont

68p is a 60% increase from todays price, they must be very confident ! Same as me.

They were bang on for April as well

We only have a less than 0.2% death rate, so that’s well enough to start with.

BIONTECH COVID-19 VACCINE EXPECTED TO BE READY FOR APPROVAL BY OCTOBER END|| CO TO PROVIDE 1 BLN DOSES WORLD WIDE CUTTING RISK OF DEATH

Floating storage is falling fast, June showed Floating storage was down 2.5m and July will be much higher. Flight data is now showing flight numbers at 76% pre Covid and climbing.

OPEC are desperately trying to balance the oil market, if demand wasn’t there they wouldn’t be raising production rates would they !

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PMO/tA3X9qAn-Premier-oil-PMO-long-wave-3-is-coming/

I’m sure we will see a RNS stating our interest in Zama has been sold. And I’m sure it will be well in excess of $500m

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-gasoline-idUSKBN24B2XO

We are looking for a close above $43 - will tonight be the night ?