Member Info for Kooba

They weren’t comfortable at all when he announced he had settled and ran for the hills as soon as they could into strength then carried on selling down to low 30s below the pre settlement level.

Now the stock has halved from pre settlement and trading close to cash they finally get comfortable ..interesting. The comfort level seems to be placing virtually no value on the management or prospects and he’s bragging. Very good.

The answer is yes they got a new PR firm in January..they had MHP for s number of years and moved to Powerscourt .. they first get a nod with the receipt of the second tranche. Thing is when companies have money burning a hole they find ways of spending it on nice things not necessities new PR campaigns ,branded shirts ramping up the cost base getting the cash burn to £400k per month from £100k per month. Must be why they paid out less cash is down on expectation and they have kept more back than they committed too without a specific change in capex plans. Good times at Runcorn..large ones all round.

If they could just get some large orders in for products I’m sure it would do far more for the valuation than getting Brians face on main stream media.

LordWM Hope that works for you ..there seems no certainty apart from now the tender will happen and that you can get a minimum 38.5% sold at 24p if you hang on until at least the 9th April and you might be tied up in the balance of your holding for a while and have to wait until the 25th at least to be in funds for shares sold…what happens after 9th depends very much on investor behaviour and maybe what some of the larger holders do i think its unlikely than anything materially price sensitive comes out during the process so stand by my post entitlement idea of level.

Would a customer be adopting gen 1 materials now for an end 2025 product launch when Nanoco and it seems others are advancing gen 2 non toxic alternatives already.

Take your points on the slides but it doesn’t leave us much the wiser on how the company is going to see a build up of revenues and cash flow breakeven in 2025.

Opportunity to ask questions next week ..but questions need to be submitted today i believe.

They managed to stir well clear on the first commercial adoption today but did say they expect more low volume orders this financial year.

But back to Cavendish who are still forecasting revenues of £8.4m for the year that does not factor in anything above the Samsung and r&d programmes.

It’s a very strange situation to be in ..one must presume the company knows approximately what the gen 1 materials were developed for if there was a specific first use in mind..as the spec would have given some big clues on functionality. Would STM have developed without an initial first use on a speculative basis..it always was put across that there was an underlying customer when they talked about validation. Certainly tricky trying to convince the market they are building revenues up to a cash breakeven point in 2025 with zero evidence of the market they are addressing or even how much material they have sold in the first commercial order.

The fact they wont even open on the size of the order is strange…how can that be confidential ?? It could be very small though which aligns with yesterdays results.

So all passed with low turnout.

The levels already accepting ( directors) get it over the minimum subscription so it all goes through as expected.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/nanoco/news/rns/story/xe1j9zw

But i thought we had been clearly guided to mass adoption was very much a gen 2 materials thing and we got the timescales on those with both parties today.

Would they be buying gen 1 materials to go in mobiles now?

Ha.. “to 13p cash per share..£23m divided by 200m shares”

That was of course £26m the cash the company will have pre the £3m buyback by 200m shares!

Ah ..logic hey.

Was it logical the shares were trading at the cash level for months and even a discount ahead of announcing the actual mechanism for distribution? We have the same underlying business left owned by the remaining shares outstanding so that concentrates ownership sure ..but it does remove the backstop of 18p+cash per share which has been the basis of valuation for much of the past year and takes that figure down to 13p cash per share..£23m divided by 200m shares..thats math! Ahead of the share buy back that is which we don’t know when that will start ..but again if the buy shares at a premium to 13P then it dilutes the cash per share further.

Has the distribution largely stopped people selling as they want to tender and need to hold the full position to entitle them to sell 38.5% or more?? Has the tender encouraged some buyers who think great we can buy shares at 20-21p and sell them at 24p? It seems it might possibly encouraged by a number on here and elsewhere saying they wont tender.

That kind of short term money will be hoping to jump out of the balance i guess ? At what level? Down to where to make a turn? And as much as who will sell…who will be buying after the tender is done?

Personally i think the risk reward of holding a company at 19p with 18p cash backing is better than 19p with 13p cash backing irrespective of the concentration in the underlying business that has been apparently illogically valued at next to nothing for months.

As you say we will know after the 9th April. But many private investors will only be able to watch if they have tendered their holdings as the corporate action is extended and the funds not paid out until the 25th..maybe another reason why some are selling now?

Btw the 17p idea is just a reasoned guess and quite generous relative to the cash backing and average EV we have seen , so they could of course trade lower …or higher! But without actually thinking about the facts it must be difficult to have a clue.

It helps in these situations i promise you.

Quick one for bolshy

“one thing i don't get at the moment is people are selling below 24 pence seems strange.”

Well maybe just maybe they figure the shares will adjust post the tender to let’s say the 17p level .

Now they can sell 38.5% maybe a bit more at 24p . Eg .let’s say they hold 100k shares to keep it simple.lets say they sell 45% at 24p =£10800,but are left with 55000 at 17P worth £9350 immediately after the tender.that would add up to £20150 or 20.15p equivalent.

Or they sell all of them how at 22p getting £22000.

A few variables there of course but hope it help you understand why some might choose to sell now.i know its complicated this adjustment business.

Ha ha ha …at least i manage to have a view and not be so irrelevant that i just criticise others but have absolutely nothing to back anything up.. But well done you calling others ignorant from the high position you are in. Very funny indeed.

Ngr

Kooba the slide pack indicated Gen 2 is guided to enter production in 2028

Think he says something different in the Q&A’s …isnt it always the way!!

2 years from the start of 2 year development plus 6-9 months scaling.

Now you mention it that would take us past CY 2026..but sure that is what BT said.

Bucheron

“Kooba what I think is not relevent.”

Agreed.

Well bucheron

i am tired of reading the nonesense that the company will trade at the cash value held in the company. this is utter *******s. the market price is driven by supply and demand.

I have not suggested they trade at cash i have suggested that on a like for like basis of how they have traded for a number of months prior to the announcement of the tender then there should be an adjustment for the clearly reduced cash per share resulting from the distribution and apportioning the same EV across the remaining outstanding shares in issue.

You obvious have an issue with those workings so pray tell how you value the company post distribution…and why??

Listened to the presentation and there is nothing much new to be fair ..expecting maybe some more low volume production orders before the end of the FY..but nothing is factored into the research estimates. Much talk about the fab that might speed up R&D Work and that they got $10m of equipment on the cheap..though didn’t say what was spent..looking at cash position figure it is $3m.

Only questions were very friendly as from paid for houses Canedish and Edison. On question was when current work programmes for Gen 2 materials with STM and Asian customer could lead to orders..similar time lines..2 year development programme then 6-9 months scaling up..so could hope to see orders CY2026.

So most focus on medium term delivery of value against short term increase in opex and capex. Current cash burn rate moved up to £300/400k per months.

Slightly difficult to see how they go cash flow break even in 2025 on the basis of this, as they are not currently expecting any mass orders for gen 1 products. Hopefully orders will build but no signs short term as of yet.

Brians got himself a new Nanoco shirt ..thats nice.

https://www.youtube.com/live/tE9dY87zFVw?si=MzFhttT72hYMI5-Q

There is also no guarantee on what you will be able to sell the balance at anything like current levels as it appears others have the same idea to make easy money..if the price adjusts and others are sellers ex entitlement then the price might well be lower…the theoretical “ex” price based on trading before the tender announcement might suggest nearer 17p after the entitlement to tender ends..but could be higher depends on what others look to do.

Also the first day ex entitlement (10thApril) most pi’s who have subscribed in the tender at 24p will not be able to deal in their holding due to the ongoing corporate action. So best check with your administration company as to their timing. But larger investors may well be able to deal on th 10th which might disadvantage smaller investors unable to deal.

There is not often free money dished out by the markets but good luck with your arbitrage.

For those not aware an opportunity to “meet the company” beckons.

Why it is so far away from the results and during the school hols ( I’m away) not too sure.

NANOCO GROUP PLC will be holding a Interim Results meeting on 2nd Apr 2024 at 10:00am BST.

Please click on the button below to accept the meeting invitation.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/

Using the company’s own figures they currently have about £56m in the bank..they intend distributing £33m ..£30m by the tender £m by an on market share bayback..leaving cash of £23m to fund activities etc .

1/ we know some people are accepting the tender over the minimum amount 1% of outstanding because 3 directors are tendering.so assuming it is passed at the GM tomorrow the tender will proceed.any amount less than the £30m maximum will just stay on the company balance sheet. They have said they would then look at alternatives such as a special dividend.

The structure of the Samsung settlement , an extended licence agreement and the sale of patents ( patent box taxation policy) combined with the significant tax losses that were off-settable means the company has negligible tax from what they said at the time of the settlement..they have had to pay some South Korean with-holding tax on the payment but say this can be off-set against future profits. So not an issue.