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Reuters article referencing Tinubu's economic reforms in the power sector:

ABUJA, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The African Development Bank (AfDB) will lend Nigeria $500 million this year as part of a $1 billion budget support programme, following economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu, an executive director of the bank said on Monday.

Bode Oyetunde, who represents Nigeria and São Tomé and Príncipe on the AfDB board, said the loan could be approved before year-end.

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"We have been working strongly to support Nigeria's very bold and aggressive macroeconomic reforms under President Tinubu. Given all these reforms, it was important to support Nigeria," Oyetunde told Reuters on the sidelines of the Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja.

"They asked us for $1.5 billion. We are able to do $1 billion over two years. Last year, we provided $500 million in budget support. This year, we are looking to do another $500 million, subject to board approval."

The West African nation, Africa's most populous, has embarked on a bold transformation since Tinubu took office in May 2023. His government has removed fuel subsidies, unified foreign exchange rates, and launched tax reforms aimed at stabilising public finances and attracting investment.

Oyetunde added that the bank is focusing on fiscal and power sector reforms as part of its support programme.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/afdb-lend-nigeria-500-million-budget-support-says-bank-executive-2025-10-06/

It will be interesting to see what happens with the money, but here's an article from yesterday which is relevant.

The Managing Director of the Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC), Engr. Jennifer Adighije, has lauded President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his administration’s commitment to revamping Nigeria’s power sector following the President’s recent approval for the settlement of N4 trillion legacy debts owed to power generation companies (GenCos).

Speaking at the 2025 National Association of Energy Correspondents (NAEC) Energy Conference in Lagos, where NDPHC was honoured as Power Company of the Year 2025, Adighije described the President’s decision as “a landmark step” that would significantly improve the financial health of the sector.

“With the funds available, we at NDPHC, given our unique mandate as the government’s intervention entity in the power sector, plan to deploy a significant portion of these recovered funds toward converting our power plants from open-cycle to combined-cycle operations,” she said.

According to her, the conversion will not only enhance operational efficiency but also diversify Nigeria’s energy generation mix in line with the nation’s Energy Transition Plan.

A statement by the company said Adighije recalled that in July 2025, President Tinubu had met with chief executives of power generation companies where he urged patience from GenCos and financial institutions while the government engaged auditors and legal firms to review the N4.7 trillion claims.

She noted that the power sector is presently undergoing a major transformation, including the transition to bilateral trading and the adoption of a cost-reflective tariff regime.

“What this means for us is that we are beginning to see increased liquidity within the sector, which in turn is making it more bankable and attractive for investment,” she said.

The NDPHC boss stressed that cash flow remains central to efficiency and sustainability in the power sector, noting that improved liquidity will enable GenCos to reinvest in infrastructure and expand capacity.

She reaffirmed NDPHC’s commitment to supporting ongoing reforms in the sector and called for stronger collaboration among stakeholders to ensure energy security and economic growth.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2025/10/adighije-commends-tinubu-over-n4trn-gencos-debt-payment-plan/

.. as well as gaining Uyi Akpata, who has held multiple senior leadership roles at PwC, to help close off the audit next week ;-)

The delays are getting shorter. Hx will be pleased ;-)

Post by Arcteryx on the other board:

Nigeria Weighs Joining Other Africa Issuers With Eurobond Sale

October 8, 2025 at 11:02 AM

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-08/nigeria-weighs-joining-other-africa-issuers-with-eurobond-sale

Nigeria is planning to raise as much as $2.3 billion in a eurobond sale in the fourth quarter, potentially joining other African issuers taking advantage of lower borrowing costs.

Lawmakers in the West African nation are considering a request by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to raise that amount in foreign loans before the end of the year, along with $500 million of sukuk to be issued externally for the first time. He also requested approval to refinance $1.1 billion of dollar debt maturing in November, according to a letter written by Tinubu to the House of Representatives on Tuesday.

“There are plans to issue eurobonds in the fourth quarter of 2025, subject to market conditions,” Patience Oniha, director-general of the Debt Management Office, said by text message on Wednesday. “In terms of what we need it’s $2.3. billion,” with tenors depending on pricing, she said.

African issuers are returning to the eurobond market after yields on their dollar debt plunged this year, with Angola and Kenya both concluding multibillion-dollar sales in the past week. The yield premium investors demand to hold Nigerian bonds rather than US Treasuries has fallen 300 basis points since April to the lowest level in seven years.

Nigeria last sold eurobonds in December, raising $2.2 billion in an offering that attracted demand for more than four times the amount on offer.

Reforms implemented by Tinubu since he came to power in 2023 have stoked investor appetite for Nigerian assets. In that time, the leader of Africa’s biggest oil producer has eliminated fuel subsidies that drained government finances for decades, increased crude output by improving security in its main producing region, while allowing the naira to trade more freely and adopting a more orthodox monetary policy management to help stabilize the currency.

Reuters reporting:

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-tap-global-debt-markets-with-500-million-sukuk-seeks-23-billion-new-2025-10-07/

There's been quite a few articles reporting this today, based on what the power minister said yesterday. However, unlike the previous statement, this has been followed up today by President Tinubu formally requesting the House of Reps today to approve the resolution.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/824622280522894

Maybe Hx's previous assertion of the 'imaginary' bailout bond should be treated with the appropriate scepticism they were referring to earlier ;-)

Yes, can't disagree with that TiL. Hopefully we can get some clarity when they publish the (hopefully audited!) accounts.

Morning Til, I doubt they are trying to buy their way out of the debt predicament by announcing the latest renewables acquisition. Whichever way you look at it the thing that needs resolving is the US$201M Accugas debt due end of this year, and that is not going to be offset by any other forms of revenue. Ultimately AK needs to complete the agreement to increase the Naira-denominated facility to approximately NGN 772 billion in order to pay off the US$ debt. As usual it's just a case of wait and see.

Hx, the trade receivables (unaudited) for 2024 were US$538.9m and for the 7 months 2025 were US$476.4m.

Lol hx. I can always buy you a drink at the next AGM instead ;-)

Hopefully you can wait the 7 to 15 years ;-)

Bear in mind the likely timeframes. Developing a large-scale mine, especially for a base metal like nickel, is a multi-stage process that typically takes an exceptionally long time. From the point of having a defined Indicated Resource to achieving commercial production, the timeline is generally estimated to be 7 to 15 years, but the total process from initial discovery to production often averages 15 to 20 years globally, and sometimes longer for complex projects or jurisdictions. Nickel projects often take longer than gold or iron ore projects due to more complex metallurgy (the process of separating the metal) that requires extensive pilot testing and a more intricate processing plant.

Based on the historical resource estimate of 1.5 billion tonnes of mineralized material at an average grade of 0.25 nickel, the total contained nickel metal is approximately 3.9 million metric tonnes of sulfide nickel.

Using a representative current market price for nickel of approximately $15,300 USD per metric tonne (based on LME prices as of September 2025), the estimated Gross In-Situ Metal Value is:

3.9 million tonnes×$15,300/tonne≈$59.7 billion USD

Obviously the ultimate economic value of the mine will be significantly lower:

Gross In-Situ Value Only: This is the theoretical market value of the metal before it is mined, processed, or refined (i.e., "in the ground").

Costs: The actual profitability must account for enormous costs, including:

Capital Expenditure (CAPEX): Building the mine, infrastructure, and processing plant (often in the billions of dollars).

Operating Expenditure (OPEX): Day-to-day costs of mining, milling, and labor.

Recovery Rate: The processing plant will not recover 100% of the nickel. A typical recovery rate for nickel sulfide in a concentrate might be around 50% or more, which would cut the total recoverable metal and, thus, the ultimate value.

Also, remember that the 1.5 billion tonne estimate is a Historical Resource Estimate, with a majority of the tonnage classified as an Inferred Resource (low confidence). This means a large portion of the calculated value relies on speculative material that requires extensive further drilling and analysis to be confirmed as economically viable.

I'll have a fiver at that price hx :-)

I'll go 10/11 we don't, or 2.0 on Betfair.

Can't see Save wanting to publish the audited accounts with an ongoing concern flag, so suspect we need completion of the agreement to increase the Transitional Facility, which Save say will enable the remaining outstanding US$ balance to be converted into Naira, with the expectation this will allow the remainder of the Accugas US$ Facility to be fully repaid during H2 2025.

Wilbur, I'm pretty sure most CEO's of relatively smaller companies view retail shareholders as a necessary annoyance as the amount of time they need to spend on them is disproportionately large compared to their shareholding. I personally don't expect CEOs to cater for retail shareholders so base my investment on whether my requirements/timescales aligns with the company's. Most retail investors have a short term view relative to institutional investors. I'd expect Savannah to be looking at the long term prospects for the company and not interested in short term gains. The aim is to base your investment on the appropriate point in the company lifecycle where you believe you can be rewarded within the timeframe that is appropriate to you.

TiL, how did you come to the view that Save would only do renewable deals after sizeable oil deals? If you read the Annual report they clearly state that they are pursuing growth opportunities in both the hydrocarbon and renewable energy areas. In the report where they list the key focus areas for the coming years the first section is :

• Significant expansion of our Renewable Energy Division.

We expect to have up to 1 GW+ of renewable energy projects in motion by end 2024 and up to 2 GW+ by end 2026. Our confidence in these targets is driven by the pipeline of projects we are working on and expect to be in a position to announce in H2 2024 and the robust growth dynamics underpinning the African power market on both the supply and demand sides of the equation (i.e. low existing electricity access rates and high population growth rates).

Over time, I believe that our renewable energy business will evolve to be a high growth business characterised by contractually long-dated, geographically diversified cashflows;'

so I think you've misunderstood if you think it was going to be primarily hydrocarbon acquisitions.

Hx, Save's raison d'etre is clearly an African centred energy company, so a bit puzzled why you would not expect them to be pursuing acquisitions in Africa. From the RNS: 'It has been in operation for 13 years contributing nearly a third of Uganda’s power capacity and has a strong payment track record. Klinchenberg’s net revenues of US$17.8m and total assets of US$197m predominantly relate to this project. ' so this does suggest that payment problems are not an issue. You can beg to differ but I'm pretty sure that the Save board are cognisant of the payment issues and would not be acquiring new assets if they believed they would have problems.

With regard to Nigeria, of course the bond issuance may not happen, and I'm not sure anyone has suggested it will. I think this board is pretty realistic and balanced compared to most and I don't see many people ramping away as you see on a lot of other boards.

I'm not sure I agree with your last point given that Save produce 24% of electricty in Nigeria so would suspect the govt. would prefer them not to go bust!

Savannah Energy (SAVE LN) has announced the acquisition of a 50.1% stake in Klinchenberg, a privately-owned producing power business in East Africa, for up to US$65.4m. The SPA with the vendor Norfund, the Norwegian investment fund for developing countries, is expected to be signed at a formal ceremony later this morning. On closing, SAVE will own half the company alongside the British International Investment (BII) institution (49.9%). The US$65.4m consideration will be funded through a new US$37.4m debt facility arranged by a leading international bank and existing PLC cash and is therefore non-dilutive. It includes a deferred sum of US$6.8m, payable 3 years post completion, and certain contingent payments linked to financial close on key development assets, Mpatamanga and Ruzizi III – described below. Completion is expected to occur no earlier than Q1 2026. Klinchenberg has interests in three large-scale hydro-power assets.

The most significant is a 13.6% indirect stake in the operating 255 MW Bujagali plant in Uganda. This run-of-river facility generates electricity by channeling part of the river’s natural flow through turbines without the need for a large reservoir and dam thus minimalising the environmental impact. It has been in operation for 13 years contributing nearly a third of Uganda’s power capacity and has a strong payment track record. Klinchenberg’s net revenues of US$17.8m and total assets of US$197m predominantly relate to this project.

In addition, the business holds two advanced-stage development assets – a 12.3% indirect stake in the 361MW Mpatamanga hydro plant in Malawi and a 9.8% indirect stake in the 206MW Ruzizi III hydro project spanning Burundi, DCR and Rwanda. These projects have strong partnership groups, including major players such as TotalEnergies, IFC, EDF (French utility) and others. Financial close for both these projects is targeted in 2026 – with construction activities starting thereafter.

We view the acquisition as a transformative event for SAVE’s pan African power ambitions, providing a cash generating platform with substantial development upside and blue-chip partners. It is the company’s first acquisition of an operating asset and expands the group into five new African counties. We also note that further transactions are envisaged by SAVE over the coming 24 months building on this initial foothold in East Africa.