Member Info for komakino

Thought this was the main reason for the delay but it was agreed in September, so obviously not. Still, good that it's been signed now.

Debt financing

Accugas has in place a Naira denominated loan facility with a consortium of Nigerian lenders (the "Transitional Facility"), which has been utilised to partially refinance the Accugas US$ Facility. The Transitional Facility was increased in September 2025 to up to NGN773 billion, and this increased facility will allow Accugas to convert and repay the remainder of the Accugas US$ Facility prior to its maturity date at the end of 2025.

The limit of the increased Transitional Facility was calculated based on an exchange rate of greater than 30% above the current market rates. Accugas is confident therefore that the Transitional Facility will be sufficient to fully repay the Accugas US$ Facility, However, repayment of the Accugas US$ Facility and utilisation of the Transitional Facility continue to require access to appropriately priced US Dollars. If the expanded Transitional Facility is not sufficient to fully repay the Accugas US$ Facility, an amount would remain outstanding which is required to be repaid by the final maturity date of the Accugas US$ Facility (31 December 2025). The base case model shows that sufficient cash flows are available to service any remaining balance under the Accugas US$ Facility. The Group also has other maturing debt facilities during H2 2025 and the base case model shows that sufficient cash flows are available to service these maturing obligations. In Nigeria, the Group continues to access US Dollars as required to pay its non-Naira denominated expenditures. The Directors remain confident that this will continue and that the Group will be able to access US Dollars and other currencies as required to maintain its operational funding needs.

The maturity date of the term loan facility entered into to fund the acquisition of the Chad and Cameroon Assets has been amended on several occasions following the Nationalisation. Most recently, in October 2025 it has been amended to provide Savannah with the option, at its sole discretion, to extend the final maturity date until January 2027 which is beyond the going concern review period.

CO, don't you listen to Hx?

'The Company EXPECTS to announce .....'

;-)

Hopefully not TiL, with US$93.7 million in the bank as at end of July, but then no one expected or even understood the last one.

Hx, it's unlikely there will be a single FGN bond for the power sector, as the Energy spokesman talked about various instruments including FGN bonds spread over time, so I'll go for a reduction in the current receivables amount of US$476.4m from the govt. by 100m USD before year end as my bet.

Always difficult to know what the sp will do but last time it fell due to the placing at 7p. So assuming we have no placing then potential catalysts are:

closure of the Naira refinancing which removes the short term debt issue

increase in cash collections and reductions in trade receivables

positive news from the govt regarding payment of genco and gas suppliers debts

which could lead to an increase. If no placing (no reason to think there will be) then major negative possibility is one of the ii's selling out. Hopefully we'll find out by tomorrow at least.

The other positive is that the main entity owing the money is the Nigerian govt. who have stated they have agreed with the gencos and gas suppliers to resolve the o/s debts via FGN bonds. You may think it's imaginary Hx but I'll wager you that £5 I owe you that a significant amount will have been received by year end :-)

Thanks Scotpak, didn't realise they had put a figure on the % of receivables so that's good to know. It does suggest that the underlying trade receivables payments are working ok. Also worth noting that the figures for 1st 7 months have seen a 37% increase in cash collections year-on-year, with almost US$220 million collected in the year to date, and a 12% improvement in the Trade Receivables balance compared to year-end 2024.

One other point, it is not certain that the payments to Accugas will be made via the Gencos. The settlement framework explicitly covers arrears owed to generation companies (GenCos) and gas suppliers, and in the comms. “gas suppliers” are mentioned as separate from generation companies, implying that the government recognises gas suppliers as direct creditors in the framework, so it's not unrealistic to think that the payments will be made directly to Accugas.

Scotpak, do you remember how AK framed his comments about payments at the coffee morning?

Hx, imo the thing that is holding up audit signoff is the refinancing of the Accugas US$ debt into Naira. At the moment Save are paid in Naira but they have to convert to USD to pay off the debt. During 2023/24 there were 2 significant Naira devaluations implemented by the govt. This meant that payments received in Naira from customers were significantly less when converted into USD. These 2 occurrences will undoubtedly be the main cause of the large receivables amount. Save have a true-up clause in their contracts which mean they can subsequently bill the customer for any exchange losses. Up until the devaluations that had worked well. However, the amounts re-billed to customers who had already paid were obviously significant, hence their inability to meet these new payments.

Save meanwhile have been trying to refinance the Accugas debt with a consortium of Nigerian banks. Once that is complete, then Save will pay off the USD debt and have a new, longer term, Naira debt. After this happens there will be no more exchange issues as receivables and debt would both be in Naira.

My thinking is that the delay in audit signoff is Save wanting to complete the refinance which then takes away the issue around forward looking statements.

Save 's (Accugas) biggest customer is the Calabar Generation Company Limited owned by the govt. so the completion of the refinancing N4 trillion debt refinancing should mean that the bulk of the receivables are then paid off. Most media outlets suggest that this would result in payments beginning this year and continuing into H1 next.

Getting shorter each time. We'll be down to minutes soon ;-)

Hx, they've already published the unaudited results for 2024 so would be a bit bizarre if they were planning to publish another set of unaudited results for 2024.

CuriousO., if they had 'quit', presumably because they would have had issues with the company, I wouldn't expect them to stay on as consultants or issue such warm words on leaving

'Sir Stephen O'Brien, Retiring Vice Chair and Non-Executive Director, Savannah, commented:

"Having been involved with the Company since its very inception 11 years ago, and after eight stimulating years as Vice-Chairman of Savannah, I am stepping down with pride in what has been built together as a team. Over this time, Savannah has transformed into a leading African energy company, advancing projects across the continent in both hydrocarbons and renewables. I am pleased to have had the opportunity to contribute to our journey. I wish everyone at Savannah every success and look forward to maintaining my support for the company in a new political advisory role."

David Clarkson, Retiring Non-Executive Director, Savannah, commented:

"Since joining the Board in 2017, I have enjoyed a wonderful journey with Andrew and my Board colleagues as Savannah grew in stature delivering Projects That Matter. I wish the Company every success as it continues to build sustainable businesses across its portfolio of opportunities. I look forward to supporting the Company as Technical Advisor to the Board."'

They are both definitely at retiring age so see no reason to think it's anything other than what Savannah have said, they are both retiring.

If the auditor refuses to sign off the accounts then Savannah would appoint a new auditor most likely. However, if no auditor will sign off the accounts then eventually they would be forced to de-list from the exchange. Shares will be back, with audit sign off, when they refinance the accugas debt facility imo.

Scotpak, I think it sounds in line with what you reported at the coffee morning, where AK said we'd likely get an initial payment and a payment plan to follow (from memory). It seems the govt. won't be able to get away a $2.8b federal bond so likely they will spread the payments out over time. Anyway, it's definitely a positive step.

More progress as the FG and the GenCos are being widely reported as having reached agreement on payment of ₦4 trillion debt.

'The federal government has finalised implementation frameworks for ₦4 trillion in government-backed bonds to settle verified arrears owed to power generation companies (GenCos) and gas suppliers.

The special adviser to the president on energy, Olu Verheijen, disclosed this in a statement issued on Tuesday in Abuja.

In the statement signed by Senan Murray, the agreement was reached at a meeting between the federal government officials and the senior executives of GenCos to review settlement modalities for the outstanding debt.

Mr Murray, head of the media and communications unit in the SA’s office, said that the meeting was attended by minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, Wale Edun, minister of power, Bayo Adelabu, and Ms Verheijen.

“The meeting concluded with a consensus on the way forward, which includes conducting bilateral negotiations to finalise full and final settlement agreements that balance fiscal realities with the financial constraints of the GenCos.

“This intervention — the largest in over a decade — addresses a legacy debt overhang that has constrained investment, weakened utility balance sheets, and hindered reliable power delivery across the country.

“This is a major step by the federal government toward restoring financial stability and investor confidence in the electricity market,” Mr Murray said.'

https://gazettengr.com/fg-gencos-reach-agreement-on-payment-of-%E2%82%A64-trillion-debt/

Hx, that article was published on September the 11th. Here's an article from the same media outlet on October 7th.

PRESIDENT Bola Ahmed Tinubu has approved a ₦4 trillion bond to settle verified debts owed to power generation companies (GenCos) and gas suppliers, a move the Federal Government said will stabilise the country’s troubled electricity market and restore investor confidence.

The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, disclosed the approval at the Expert Forum on “Uninterrupted Power: The Industrial Imperative” organised by the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) in Abuja on Monday, October 6.

Adelabu said the debt clearance is part of a broader financial reform plan under the Renewed Hope Agenda, aimed at strengthening liquidity and sustainability across the power value chain.

“To stabilise the market, Mr President has approved a ₦4 trillion bond to clear verified debts owed to GenCos and gas suppliers,” he said, adding that a targeted subsidy framework is also being developed to cushion the impact of energy cost adjustments on low-income households while sustaining commercial viability for operators.

He noted that tariff adjustments for certain consumer categories have already improved supply reliability and revenue collection. “Industry revenue has grown by 70 per cent, reaching ₦1.7 trillion in 2024, and is projected to exceed ₦2 trillion in 2025,” Adelabu said.

https://www.icirnigeria.org/tinubu-approves-%E2%82%A64-trillion-bond-to-offset-gencos-debts-adelabu/

Whilst it is clear there is currently a big issue regarding Genco debts, the govt. have said they will be settled when the approved bond audit is complete. At the same time it's also worth noting that in the latest update provided by Save for the first 7 months of 2025, there has been a 37% increase in cash collections year-on-year, with almost US$220 million collected in the year to date, and a 12% improvement in the Trade Receivables balance compared to year-end 2024. Let's see what the trading update for the nine months ended 30 September 2025 shows when they publish, hopefully this week.

Done.

There seems to be some confusion in the media over the energy sector bonds being proposed, with media reports seemingly offering contradictory takes on the situation. From doing quite a bit of reading around it seems that there are actually 2 different bond proposals

$2.8 Billion International bond as announced last week:

Refinancing Maturing Bonds: $1.1 billion (or approximately 48% of the total) is earmarked for refinancing a maturing Eurobond that is due in November.

Funding the Budget Deficit: The remaining $1.7 billion (or approximately 52% of the total) is intended to partially fund the 2025 fiscal budget deficit and support critical infrastructure and growth-driven sectors.

The bond for repayment of the Genco debts (referred to in the press as the N4trillion debt (also approx $2.8b, which I think is where the confusion is coming from) is through the issuance of Federal Government Bonds. The energy minister confirmed last week that the bond has been approved by Tinubu. Latest media reports say that the audit process has not been completed as of yet.

According to AI 'Once the validation is complete and all approvals are in place, the DMO's process is relatively fast:

Offer Circular Publication: For a standard public FGN Bond auction, the DMO publishes the Offer Circular (the official notification) about one week in advance of the auction date.

Issuance/Settlement: The actual issuance and settlement of the bonds to the respective accounts (in this case, the GenCos) would typically occur within a few days of the final documentation being signed.

Hopefully that clarifies things a touch, so looks like Hx can keep with his imagonary bond for a while longer yet.

NtM, Hx is running the book for that event :-)

Not too late to buy in Hx. Oh wait, we're suspended ;-)