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Added two lots near the close, which were above the offer, so the offer depth was shallow. Suspect this was being run down for the purpose of end of week option settlement, which may also be the end of the liquidation or shorts closing. The final flush so to say. Monday might be an interesting start.

Do you have some mystical crystal ball that has already made you a billionaire ?

There are parts of the market that behave programmatically and are not necessarily rational that is then leveraged by others. Look at Buffets analogy with the farmer for instance. If you believe the current value proposition, just sit back and wait. The hardest thing to do at times is nothing. Eventually the price will be at a point for a takeover because even with the uncertainties a consolidation reduces costs for processing, etc. Patience.

Companies have until Dec 2025 to respond to claims, not necessarily pay them.

Read up on the redress options for the FCA, if they do instigate one it will be in 2026. Between now and then is a long time and CBG will have added £400m (£100m 23-24 divi, £200m sale, £100m 24-25 divi) without anything else on top that may arrise between now and then.

Here's a thought. CAM is being sold for circa £200m. CBG is currently valued at £330m. So the market thinks the rest of the business is actually worth £130m for something that makes more than £130m a year ?

Would you buy or sell at this price ?

https://fintel.io/sob/gb/cbg

Some interesting timing of buyers listed (factual from filing records)... more interesting not many sellers at this level.

Taking the net asset value of £1.8bn, £1.6bn is retained earnings, the motor book being £1.9bn of thier >£10bn overall. The compo tsunami would have to be bilbical and not spread out over several years (note the claims response deadline is Dec 2025), let alone the start of any FCA redres scheme in 2026....

FTSE UK Index Series : Index Review Reference Data cut-off dates for 2024 - Jan 2024

FTSE100 and FTSE250 indicative dates

22 Nov : Indicative Review Market Capitalisation data cut-off

26 Nov : Notification of indicative index membership changes to the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250

Relevant final date of interest :

3 Dec : Index Rebalance Market Capitalisation data cut-off

Close of 3rd will be relevant for SP around 255

Fun starts with the 22/26th....

Might get interesting closer to the 22nd (indicative) and 26th (notify) when the index is set/changed as it may not take much to ramp up and force the shorts out closer to the date if that is the shorts strategy. All of the trackers that closed out/adjusted would be left in the wind. If there is rally in the near term (say, on the back of the Supreme Court challenge) it may well be quite brutal for the shorts and decision time. Patience....

My belief is that the current pricing is now a pure index tracker rinse strategy. Hold the price here until the next review, rinse out the trackers and then flip the share back into the 250 index.

As far as I understand the CBG commission (as per the case) was 3% of the finance value, so, no you will not get half the finance cost back..

"'Some in the industry are asking us to expand that pause to cover complaints relating to other types of commission in motor finance."

"'We are considering this carefully and working at pace through the potential benefits and risks of doing so. "

So the FCA is considering weather or not to follow the law...... hillarious.... they understood the ruling well...

Problem is the deffinition and origination as to the courts "fiduciary" assumes that the dealer/broker can sell the car with a conflict (own proffit motive) and then organise (not enter into) and "offer" the customer finance without any conflict, free of charge, contradicting the PPI ruling in the Plevin case.

The accepted "fiduciary" implies trust, which originates from authority to act on behalf of. The dealer/broker had no such authority ("offer" stated in the ruling).

The Supreme Court needs to add clarity about the "fiduciuary" in this instance and ideally clarify how it fits with Plevin.

I would be stunned if the ruling stands as is without clarity or change.

It all revolves around the person on the street being labelled as "unsophisticated" and therefore standard contract does not apply, well, because they don't read the contract anyway. So, we as jolly good, do gooding, unsophisticated people all get a handout from.... errrr. the companies that go bust, which leaves the taxpayers on the hook (via the FCA) and... it the unsophisticated person that then has his pocket emptied in taxes to pay for... their payment... wonderful.... free hugs all round...

CBG is currently around 15% outside the 250 index, with the index review dates being indicative 22nd Nov and the 26th for notifications. So, possibly just wait around three weeks while the forced sellers exit and the index strategy to flip. Short positions will have a price/risk limit that will be a function as to the expected volume of forced index sellers.

Think I realise what is going on... Current market cap places CBG outside the FTSE250 index, so the trackers may be selling down ahead of the review date. Shorts hold the price down (10% below index exit as is now), create stable price floor to reduce vol and reduce the option prices, cover part of the short volumes with call options. Once the index review date passes, switch to get CBG back into the 250 index, rinse repeat with the next target. From that I would guess the price is not going much further south because the post index date rally (no forced serllers) will put the shares back into the index and be harder to hold down with no rationale. May well be a pure index tracker game, the current surroundig context just makes this share the football of the day. Patience....

Remember Buffett's comment in this fear/uncertain market... “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

Buyers are likely limited to non institutional (pensions, etc.) due to the uncertainty, which leaves shorts with little buy volume to contend with offering the market down. RLCM appeared to have been a victim of the shorts last week with (guessing) risk margins were pushed/touched, which in turn signaled to another short to pile in. Only issue for shorts is seeing if the likes of RLCM can be squeezed more into being a forced seller(s). Otherwise, who would sell even when a $500m FCA ruling leaves the NAV/liquidation position share price over 300p. It's a time game. CBG should be lodging the appeal with the supreme court soon, which if approved for appeal means that the CA ruling will be defined more and likely limited in nature as to what fiduciary boundary actually exists, vs a possible miscronstrued wood ruling that created this situation of chaos, confusion and errosion of contract law.

The last drop ran into 200k of volume around 224/225 and pulled back up sharp. Plus, with the three shorts volumes (2.14%), who is going to be selling out at this level to allow them to close out ? I'm curous who are the sellers going to be to allow the shorts to close out.