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Impressive move by HEMO yes, but that news came out last week. So why did it only move today? Seems like there's more and more RI jumping into bandwagons more like. ODX yesterday and HEMO/GDR today on little news.
Would encourage everyone that's investing to really understand what it is you're buying into. AVCT is really easy as there's great work done for us by Myles. I've been tracking his twitter followers and he's increasing daily (and also followed by Avacta themselves) so won't be surprised if RI/IIs are investing on the back of it.
Agreed that it could be higher than single digits here. One question I'd like to know though.. can Cytiva manufacture the Affirmer reagents themselves? Or will Avacta provide them. Obviously will be better % if latter is true.
You can look into SNG too. They are in phase 2 trials of a drug treatment that they are confident will help the infection from getting worse.
But my biggest positions are here and NCYT. The price action of Avacta though is incredible since the last RNS. Slow steady rises for the last few days now on good volume too. Suggests investors continue to build positions.
Looking at Myles twitter feed.. he's been enjoying his wines lately.. a lot.
When I was looking to buy ODX, AVCT in the mid 50s was a better trade at the time for me. Both would have doubled my money so not like I really missed out. I still think an antibody test is worth investing in, but it has to work, and there has to be skin in the game for ODX to make any significant profit from it. I'm just more convinced in other stocks hence I've had the cajones to buy them. From the replies and posts here I'm not sure the risk/reward is there just yet for me to buy into ODX. Hopefully more info will come out in the coming days/weeks.
Thanks for the replies.
@LB28 - I can see that a multiple of sales as a valuation proxy, but I'm not convinced this pandemic will last long enough and result in consistent multi-year revenues for that to apply in this case. Just like NCYT (in essence it is a single product company) I cant see them making sustained sales once COVID-19 is over. With these stocks, I think it's probably more prudent to try calculate the total income and use that as a baseline to work out if a share is fundamentally worth buying or not. Today's move is impressive and I congratulate those like the fox who had the 'cajones'.
Hi all, first post on this board. I've been looking at this stock for a couple weeks but not able to get in. I'm also invested in NCYT, AVCT, and SNG so something in the antibody space will cover all my covid investment bases.
My main difficulty is working out the potential earnings. Can anyone shed light on what the margins are on these antibody POC tests? I understand Mologic are planning to sell their ELISA test that ODX are manufacturing at cost but there has to be some decent margin for ODX correct? Can't see them being allowed to make outsized profits especially given they are part of the government backed RTC.
Thanks for reading.
(reposted from NCYT chat in case some are not invested there)
Came across this research paper that was published over the weekend at:
medrxiv (dot) org/content/10.1101/2020.04.20.20065953v1
"Interpretation: The concentration of SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibodies peaked on day 19-21 after symptom onset, and antibody testing on day 16-21 is associated with increased detection rates, but the antibody concentration does not affect the course and outcome of the infection. Recovering patients with re-detectable positive SARS-CoV-2 RNA displayed lower concentration of IgG, but the downward trend of IgG during recovery indicated its limited duration of protection, and the protective effect of IgG remains to be investigated."
This is not that positive and adds weight to the argument that immunity is only short term in people that recover from COVID-19, and perhaps casts doubt on the point of any vaccine/antibody tests. Antigen testing remains key I would say, but I do wonder how on earth we will get out of lockdown if it is confirmed immunity is not long lasting.
Came across this research paper that was published over the weekend at:
medrxiv (dot) org/content/10.1101/2020.04.20.20065953v1
"Interpretation: The concentration of SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibodies peaked on day 19-21 after symptom onset, and antibody testing on day 16-21 is associated with increased detection rates, but the antibody concentration does not affect the course and outcome of the infection. Recovering patients with re-detectable positive SARS-CoV-2 RNA displayed lower concentration of IgG, but the downward trend of IgG during recovery indicated its limited duration of protection, and the protective effect of IgG remains to be investigated."
This is not that positive and adds weight to the argument that immunity is only short term in people that recover from COVID-19, and perhaps casts doubt on the point of any vaccine/antibody tests. Antigen testing remains key I would say, but I do wonder how on earth we will get out of lockdown if it is confirmed immunity is not long lasting.
@Trek, yup - I've been on the Mologic website and I know Avacta have had an R&D agreement in place since 2016 - but as far as I'm aware - they have never come up with any product that utilises the affirmer platform? Do correct if wrong.
Mologic are using antibodies for their rapid test and are working with ODX to bring it to market. Just wondering why they didn't use Affirmer molecules instead as all the benefits would have been massively in their favour vs antibodies (e.g. cost, time, sensitivity, batch consistency).
Quick bit of evening research to figure out my initial question.. From looking through the company website (>HOME - DIAGNOSTICS- APPLICATIONS- AFFIMER IMMUNOASSAY REAGENTS), it seems possible that Affirmer molecules can indeed bind to antibodies from the below text:
"Affimer® molecules can also be generated that recognise antibody-antigen complexes but that do not bind to the antibody or antigen alone"
Also, from the Apr 8th video where CEO Alistair explains the antibody test around 2m 21s, he says developing antibody tests are "simpler, and much more straightforward".
Seems to me - if Avacta wanted to develop an antibody test - it won't be difficult at all. Hopefully Mologic is investigating this avenue as part of their plans to develop a POC AB test.
Been trying to figure out whether Avacta can at some point find an affirmer protein that can bind with COVID antibodies. From reading the 2016 annual report, there was already a library of 10 billion affirmer molecules. Pretty sure what they did was whittle that down to 50 for the Cytiva antigen test strip, but I'm thinking is it possible there is an affirmer molecule that can bind with an antibody? Perhaps this is what Mologic are after as they are going down the antibody test route.
nice spot - can be just a pure coincidence indeed.. or perhaps not. We will find out pretty soon.
If the saliva based test is 100% accurate then I think this will obviously be the case. We should find out pretty soon.
Thanks for the share. Sona's angle is their proprietary nanotube tech which given the larger surface area should be able to detect smaller quantities of the target (COVID virus protein spikes). Challenge for them is the need for reagents as they buy them from The Native Antigen Company and how quickly they can scale up production of said nanotubes.
Would have been cool if Avacta's affirmer reagents can be used together with Sona's tubes so a win-win, but sounds like they are not complementary.
search user "M.McNulty" here and spend the weekend reading his two research reports on this company that he has linked. I invested myself due to his work.
Thanks for sharing ShareSting. There's mounting research and anecdotal evidence Interferon-B will be an effective treatment against COVID-19. Only a matter of time..
Doing some weekend research and next step from the directors talk video was once they isolated the best Affimer reagents, they will pass that onto Cytiva.
Does anyone know if these reagents are made by Avacta (then my question would be what are the production capacity/limitations?), or can they be massed-produced quickly by other companies like Cytiva? Obviously if the latter, then signing up new partnerships would be excellent news.
Thanks Myles. A lot of us are here beach of your work. Bravo.
Enjoy the weekend and can't wait to see what's in store for this brilliant company in the coming weeks/months.
Just to bring the thread back in line.. I did a simple calc with some cautious assumptions:
- 8m tests a month by June (So 4m in April, 6m in May, but could be higher with new partners)
- 65% net margins (just based off 80% margins less corp tax)
- £8 a test (but declining 5% a month due to competition and/or manufacturing efficiencies)
would give a 'profit' of around £40m a month. Market cap, currently £250m, is therefore assuming income from tests to last til September/October. This is likely to be underestimating demand and duration so think shares are still undervalued here.
IF I were to say 8m tests sold a month to December, and price per test falling to and staying firm at £5, the income would be equivalent to 460p a share. The big kicker though is licensing. Assuming 5% royalty, each 100m tests sold per month would add 50p to the share price. No idea what sort of production OEMs could make here, but definitely the result of my analysis suggests quite significant upside.
GLA and DYOR!