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Yes the units sold and revenues would be key but from a commercial point of view, they won't divulge what each government pays. We will only likely find out at the interims when the overall breakdown will be given.
Only thing crazy is if you haven't invested there also..
@ShearClass, the Affimers are human protein based so *should* be safe, and actually this could indirectly validate part of phase 1 trials of the cancer therapies which was to confirm that there are no ill effects of Affimers in the human body.
WOW - this is precisely what has just happened!!
Seems the company had net cash inflow of just €5m from Jan to end April. This is calculated as €9.2-€1.8-€2.4 as per FY results RNS below. Compare this to the €103m of sales & orders by 28 April and at first glance this does appear low. I'm pretty sure this is what bears are focussing on, but I estimate their total profits from test sales to end April is around €15m (see below), so €10m spent on working capital, capacity expansion (went from 250k, to now well over 10m tests), and new hires incl. Chartwell seems totally reasonable.
PRODUCTION ESTIMATES:
Feb 250k tests, £2m sales, £1m profit (assuming 50% net margin)
Mar 1m tests, £8m sales, £4m profit (based off 12 Mar RNS)
Apr 4m tests, £16m sales, £8m profit
May 6m tests
June 10m tests
**From the FY results RNS**
Significant levels of cash are also expected to be generated from this level of profitability and as of the end of April 2020, the Group had a net cash balance of €9.2m (cash as at 31 December 2019 of €1.8m). Given the low capital intensity of Novacyt’s manufacturing process, a significant proportion of the Group’s EBITDA should be converted to cash.
Note 15 regarding warrants: This share price increase resulted in all remaining warrant holders exercising their warrants which gave rise to a net cash inflow of €2,400,000 into the business and the warrant overhang has now been removed completely.
**Previous sales RNS**
As of 28 April, Primerdesign has sold, received orders for or has been contracted to deliver over £90 million (€103 million) of its COVID-19 test.
As of 27 March, Primerdesign has sold and received orders for over £17.8 million (€19.6 million) of its CE-Mark and research use only (RUO) COVID-19 tests.
They were in the wash this morning.. full of brown stains..
Where do you get to £1m profit per 1m test? If it's just looking at the cash balance of €9m at end April, I think that's incorrect. NCYT would have had to increase working capital, spend on materials, increasing capacity all of which would have drained cash in the near term to build up for anticipated higher demand going forward.
It's clear you have to spend cash to make (lots of in this case) cash. The tests don't cost nothing and no time to make.
I've been watching back some Proactive interview videos and I'm still not sure if Integumen is able to detect the virus at present. Can someone confirm? Here's Brandon saying "No" in the March 30th interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=233&v=fSgUZCQDykM
The latest RNS is quite vague and not conclusive to me either. "The roadmap for this integration includes the ability to detect viruses such as SARS-Cov-2."
If not currently possible to detect - is there any timescale given when it might be possible?
They are also working with Cytiva to develop a test so they do have potential to scale up manufacturing. SONA have also partnered with The Native Antigen company here in UK presumably for their reagents, and also Bond Health - a welsh medical data company - to help authorities/users track test results. The last leg there I think is interesting, would be good if Avacta's test has some sort of online system to submit/track test results.
https://sonanano.com/sona-nanotech-provides-covid-19-antigen-test-progress-update/
Sona are also developing a rapid LTD antigen test, like Avacta and gave an update today, after a month of silence. Not sure why the stock is down so much today on the back of it (Quidel sentiment?), but overall down over 30% from recent highs. Their in-house testing indicated a very high level of specificity to COVID-19, with no false positives being generated. They do say the test needs to be used on patients with live virus to get confirmation of the effectiveness of their test.
No direct read across for Avacta, but perhaps good to know we need our LFD tested on patients at the get go but the trial phase could take a month at least to get it right. SONA appeared to be ahead of test development a month ago, but Avacta are not far behind now it seems.
So perhaps they can create LFD with 3 lines, one for the virus spike protein (have the virus), another for the detached (have the virus and it's developed into the COVID-19 disease), and the third is the control line.
Adding an extra test line could perhaps highlight how early/late the asymptotic person has got the virus.
I'm waiting for Alistair to give more detail, but my take is that it makes the test more sensitive.
Two affimers binding together, and still being able to detect the spike protein suggests no loss of sensitivity, and also suggests the manufacturing process is perhaps easier as they don't need to make sure each affimer is isolated/singular?
The second part of the RNS saying disease progression can be monitored I presume means they can create another test with this particular Affimer - perhaps this test is more for researchers/scientists?
When then do PCR based tests not use saliva in this case? Is it the viral load is higher in nasal and throat swabs?
Precedent now set.
This Rutgers test is still the PCR lab based type so results not instant, but good to know saliva now officially accepted.
If the deadline is 4pm Monday, I guess we will continue to see some weakness when it trades again on the 11th as punters sell to raise prefunding in hope that they can get some 80p shares. Might be another chance to top up on weakness..
@Chrishar. Thanks for your reply. It's fine not to agree and that's what makes this BB interesting and it is great we all have different opinions.
My opinion is just based off the last RNS UK govt contract. Sure the SP did move up initially, but has settled back to the current range. Sure it gave credibility but from an earnings point of view, there really wasn't any incremental impact as the market expects them to sell all their 4m tests. France is looking to do a similar number of tests, and if NCYT gets all of that, it's just over 50% of their current 4m capacity (or 28% of the expanded 8m).
What I prefer to look at is the absolute minimum valuation of the company, and I think that has to be the cash method. I'm pretty certain NCYT have no problem selling the tests, and total month revenue would likely be 8m x £8 = £64m, which gives earnings of £30m assuming 50% margin. This compares to the MC of £280m, so you can say from that at the very least.. the market is pricing in that the company will sell around 9 months worth of tests. Now, this is where your opinion comes in. Do you think COVID-19 will be all over by Jan/Feb 2020? If you're optimistic about the world controlling the pandemic, you could think the vaccine comes in autumn and demand for PCR testing collapses. But for me, I would think not, and with the company looking to increase capacity further, govts around the world increasing their focus on testing, I only see risks to the upside for the SP.
In any case, I know we all love to talk about why we think this and that company is best, but the bigger picture is that a lot of testing will be needed for the foreseeable future. Whether that be PCR, POC, Antibody - all will be in demand, and until we see demand dropping off, all companies involved in COVID-19 testing should do well.
Plenty of reasons why this stock has remained stuck in a tight range lately. As I mentioned in my prior posts, sales updates *WILL NOT* move the share price now. Only RNS that says the company is increasing production capacity over the previously communicated 8m a month and/or new partners will provide any meaningful upside. This is because we know the demand for test kits far outweigh supply/production, and the share price assumes NCYT will sell 100% their production well into next year.
Another reason that NCYT hasn't moved much is that there are many alternatives for investors/traders to play the Covid testing market. GDR investors will rightly point to the fact their MC is 1/3 of NCYT and they have production capability of 7m tests. Yes they are not in market but sales *could* start later this month. Although clearly they have challenges to overcome (certification, distribution), investors see GDR as an early play like NCYT hence thinking the risk/reward is worth it. If NCYT does get to £6-7 in the coming weeks - it just adds more credibility that GDR can also continue to re-rate. AVCT is another stock that is getting investors excited on a potential POC test. Again - nothing to sell right now, but the CEO update earlier this week has significantly de-risked issues around the test. MC of this stock is nearer to NCYT so a lot of expectation is already built in - but I would say the LT angle of AVCT is very promising indeed when one digs a little deeper.
I actually like the fact NCYT's share price has remained steady and not showing crazy 20% moves like others. Perhaps once further news comes out here, the MMs will bring back the volatility but for me I've not sold a single share here as I expect further updates in the coming weeks/months such as dPCR, US update, as well as the near term annual results which should contain some guidance on C-19 testing.
Happy VE Day all!
Yup - the cancer treatments are so promising. Finally I understand the TMAC charts!
Good to read:
it has c.20 ongoing evaluations with diagnostic partners, all off which have the potential to deliver licensing deals. Five of these have concluded well and are moving to licensing discussions.
LOL, the covid angle is the key to this stock so just summarised the points related to that and the AVA6000 trial.
People that have invested here over a month should be well aware of the company story so rest of the report is not that important.