Member Info for Kingalf

A cynic would argue that the bods are part of an elaborate scheme to enrich themselves at the expense of shareholders. Huw's track record as a CEO is shockingly poor, just look him up at Company house.
Still some opportunities to make a small return on these, a good entry point IMHO is around 4.81p, with a potential return of around 20%.

Seems the only thing keeping these up this morning is the share buyback.
The only winners are the market makers as they are filling the buy order and inturn will cover that short position at a much lower price in the next few days.
Another reason why share buybacks aren't the best way to redistribute funds.

Could surprise us all and announce they've had a bid approach from our friend Kight. Before anyone gets too excited I can't see it much above 8.25p. Failing that, it will be the usual cash burn rate and how super excited they are about future prospects.

I find Merryn Somerset from the ft weekends article always very informative. "If inflation gets to and sticks at, say, 4 per cent, the prices of growth stocks will surely tank — you will want a 4 per cent earnings yield to compensate for the inflation, something that suggests you won’t want to pay a price/earnings ratio of much more than 20-25 times for any equities. The p/e of the S&P 500 is currently 30 times. That of the FTSE 100 is more like 15 times"
PAF current P/E ratio and yield is just so attractive, admittedly a gold sell off on the back of a rate hike would tarnish some of that shine but the share buyback should compensate to some extent. I can see why the bods are so keen to buy.

Getting closer to his buying point.
I did say it would be back down here.

Nice bit of financial engineering will reap some big dividend payments for the directors of CD&R. I seem to recall reading an article that they were planning to structure this within a financial vehicle based in a tax free location. Net result is less tax reciepts, less job security, higher anxiety about the future among its employees, contractors and food producers all for around £1 profit per share which you would have probably gained through dividend payments over the next 5 years.
Is it worth it ???
Go with your conscious and vote NO to the deal.
Don't let these leeches ruin a perfectly good business for their own personal short term gain.

I think we can all agree with the positive fundamentals. The sell off is clearly part of the general sell off in the majority of gold stocks so not company specific. Therefore it just a waiting game until they're back in favour.
Technicals are obviously not looking great but that's to be expected and probably a good time to slowly add to your position.
Currently sitting around the long term support line, we might see a small further sell off to around 14.95 but would then expect a bounce back up.
200-Day Moving Average18.96
50-Day Moving Average16.36
20-Day Moving Average16.19
10-Day Moving Average15.94
Unless there are any hidden skeletons I the cupboard, this will eventually recovery.
Use the weakness to add to your position.
I've calculated some rough entry points
14.95
14.25
13.32
13.00
11.23
9.97
8.46
We shouldn't go anywhere near the lower ones, but its worth keeping them in mind.

There are many penny stocks out there today with a lot of growth potential. There are even some, like Pan African Resources (LSE: PAF), that I feel combine significant growth potential with dividend income. To me, that’s quite a potent mix. I even think the shares could more than double from their current share price, which is just around 16p each at the time of writing. So I’m very likely to buy the shares. 

Why I think this penny stock’s price could double

Taking a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of eight, which would still make the shares ‘cheap’ by conventional standards, and then taking the estimated earnings per share for 2022 of 5.18p, I calculate we can get a target share price of 41.5p (that is, eight times the EPS), or thereabouts. The estimated earnings per share figure comes from analysts at Edison. Incidentally, they value the shares more conservatively at around 28.04p. Even on that more conservative target price, there’s still potential for the stock to almost double in value.

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Admittedly my calculations are for a best-case scenario as they would require the share price to hit an all high time – and by quite some margin. But here’s why I think the shares could possibly re-rate and achieve a higher valuation.

Getting more value and a higher share price

Edison predicts that PAF’s revenue will go from US$218.8m in 2018 up to $340.9m in 2022. Profit before tax over the same period should grow from $37.1m to $144m. This performance should in itself lead to a higher valuation than Pan African Resources currently has.

While UK miners generally have low P/E ratios right now, that’s not the same for overseas-listed gold miners. Barrick Gold has a P/E of around 13. I feel that puts Pan African Resources’ low P/E, which is currently four, into perspective. Newmont, listed in the US, has an even higher rating at 15. Even UK-listed Centamin has a forward P/E of 10. Going back to my share price target, I think this shows a P/E of eight is realistic. 

In recent results for its financial year ended 30 June, Pan African Resources reported a 12% increase in gold production to 201,777 ounces. That followed 179,600 ounces of gold mined in 2020. So the direction of travel is good and it’s operating well. 

Falling debt at the firm should also help boost the future earnings per share as less revenue goes towards debt repayment.

Of course, things may not turn out the way I hope or analysts expect if the gold price falls. It’s worth me keeping an eye on that. But gold is often seen as an inflation hedge (that is, a good investment when inflation is rising), so my bet is on gold prices rising and demand in

As I posted on the 26th August
"easy- I'm working on the basis that kight is the only major buyer, he is building a position from between 5 to 6 p. He is done for now and the price will drift back to the lows 5p over the next week or so. Buy around 5.2p and sell around 6.4p. Follow this strategy and you will make money, don't buy and hold"

Admittedly I got my upside wrong when the price was ramped up by the market makers to suck in more unsuspecting saps, but the trend has now re established itself.
Kight will be loading up again at around 5.25p.

Money munch "An example of a negatively biased blinkered view 27th August...Ho ho ho ho ho.... ;-)" 3rd Sept post. Wrong again mate.

Ontarget - yes the upmove did come as a surprise, especially as the status has no endorsement of the drug itself. I would say that now the gap has been filled and the subsequent close below that level, only reinforces my view that we are heading back down. Its a dog of a share, management think so as well, hence none holding any substantial holdings. All you newbies who thought they were onto a winner here today, you'll be nursing a loss in a week or so, but don't worry, you'll be in good company as 90% of share holders are in the same boat. Only the bods with their hefty salaries are the true winners.

Just for clarity, this status has no endorsement of the drug itself, I could be wrong but I really can't see any further upmove on this news. Surprised its moved this far to be honest. Still expect a move back down in the coming weeks.

Orphan drug status gives companies researching cures for rare diseases a seven-year window of tax reductions and the exclusive right to develop a cure for a specific condition. Orphan drug status can be granted for new drugs, already approved drugs, or drugs that are already on the market.

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Ontarget - Surely your statement on confidence in your convinctions applies to the majority on here as soon as they've topped up, in a desperate sort of way they're trying to convince themselves and others that they haven't thrown good money after bad.
I am right again, we will see the low 5s in the next week or so, Kight is the only buyer keeping this up.

Nolupus - no spread ac so I can't short this.
As per my post 13th August
"Well done SuperSonicBoom on your 10%, I'm considering a small punt on the assumption of a takeover bid at around 8p"
Purchased last week at 5.20p and sold out yesterday. I'm very transparent in my dealing with this stock, I've spotted a pattern caused by Kights buying and am just sharing my view.
If you lot hadn't been so obsessed that I was taking this share down for personal reasons, and actually listened and acted on my posts, your p/l would now be in a much healthier position and not now having to rely on hope.
I was the first to bring up the possibility of a share placement last year.
I predicted the move down from 14p
And I was the first to bring you details of Kights background.
Admittedly the first 2 have had a detrimental impact on your net worth, but please don't shot the messenger who is usually kight or should that be right.

easy- I'm working on the basis that kight is the only major buyer, he is building a position from between 5 to 6 p. He is done for now and the price will drift back to the lows 5p over the next week or so. Buy around 5.2p and sell around 6.4p. Follow this strategy and you will make money, don't buy and hold.

Kight is back in buying, no other reason for the move up.

CD&R are certainly leaving it late again, unless the offer is in, and the board are sitting on it.

He'll be back soon, especially considering how close he is to being the single biggest share holder.
Still think he is lining up a bid for the whole company.
Time will tell.

Well done SuperSonicBoom on your 10%, I'm considering a small punt on the assumption of a takeover bid at around 8p.

Kight seems to be the only one buying at the moment, has managed to build a sizable position but the price has hardly moved. I still think its either some kind of tax mitigation plan, or he intends to buy the company out to be used as a vehicle for his future ventures. I'm 100% certain that there is more to this then a straightforward investment, his intentions should become clear in the near future.

Just started looking at these. Initial thoughts are that management are a little out of touch with what is going on, surely you would wait and see what plans the new owners of Morrisons have before progressing with store conversion. I definitely see a future with these centrally based convenience stores, with the FCA on banks backs regarding branch closures, they'll be looking at alternatives. Setting up a sub branch in a convenience store will be a win win for both parties, increased footflow from the retailers perspective and reduced costs and still have a presence on the High Street from the banks perspective.
Just need a management change.